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The Effect of H1N1 (Swine Flu) Media Coverage on Agricultural Commodity Markets

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  • Witsanu Attavanich
  • Bruce A. McCarl
  • David Bessler

Abstract

The authors estimate the market impact of media coverage related to the name “swine flu,” relabeled subsequently as “2009 H1N1 flu,” on the future prices of lean hogs, live cattle, corn, and soybeans. They then quantified the revenue loss, employing the subset vector autoregressive model. The results indicate that the media coverage was associated with a significant and temporary negative impact on the futures prices of lean hogs, but with little impact on the other futures prices. The impact persisted for about four months, yielding an April–December 2009 market revenue loss of about $200 million (about 2.51 percent). Copyright 2011, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Witsanu Attavanich & Bruce A. McCarl & David Bessler, 2011. "The Effect of H1N1 (Swine Flu) Media Coverage on Agricultural Commodity Markets," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(2), pages 241-259.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:apecpp:v:33:y:2011:i:2:p:241-259
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/aepp/ppr008
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    Cited by:

    1. Fałkowski, Jan & Curzi, Daniele & Olper, Alessandro, 2016. "Contract (in)completeness, product quality and trade – evidence from the food industry," 2016 Fifth AIEAA Congress, June 16-17, 2016, Bologna, Italy 242321, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    2. repec:oup:ajagec:v:99:y:2017:i:1:p:243-264. is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Coslovsky, Salo V., 2014. "Economic Development without Pre-Requisites: How Bolivian Producers Met Strict Food Safety Standards and Dominated the Global Brazil-Nut Market," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 32-45.
    4. Costa, Rafael & Bessler, David & Rosson, C. Parr, 2015. "The Impacts of Foot and Mouth Disease Outbreaks on the Brazilian Meat Market," Journal of Food Distribution Research, Food Distribution Research Society, vol. 46(3), November.
    5. Holderieath, Jason, 2016. "Spatiotemporal management under heterogeneous damage and uncertain parameters. An agent-based approach," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, 2016, Boston, Massachusetts 235850, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Valentina G. Bruno & Bahattin Büyükşahin & Michel A. Robe, 2017. "The Financialization of Food?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 99(1), pages 243-264.
    7. Pozo, Veronica F. & Schroeder, Ted C., 2016. "Evaluating the costs of meat and poultry recalls to food firms using stock returns," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 66-77.

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