Improving The Relevance Of Research On Price Forecasting And Marketing Strategies
Agricultural economists' research on price forecasting and marketing strategies has been used little by those in the real world. We argue that fresh approaches to research are needed. First, we argue that we need to adopt a new theoretical paradigm, noisy rational expectations. This paradigm suggests that gains from using price forecasting models with public data or from using a marketing strategy are not impossible, but any gains are likely to be small. We need to conduct falsification tests; to perform confirmation and replication; to adjust research to reflect structural changes, such as increased contracting; and always to conduct statistical tests. We also provide a modest agenda for changing our research and extension programs.
Volume (Year): 25 (1996)
Issue (Month): 1 (April)
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- Goss, Barry A & Stein, Jerome L, 1992. "Special Issue on Futures Markets: Price Discovery and Price Determination: Introduction," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 0(0), pages 1-9, Supplemen.
- Stein, Jerome L, 1992. "Price Discovery Processes," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 0(0), pages 34-45, Supplemen.
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- Robison, Lindon J. & Colyer, Dale, 1994. "Reflections On Relevance Of Professional Journals," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 26(01), July.
- Tomek, William G., 1987. "Effects of Futures and Options Trading on Farm Incomes," Staff Papers 186718, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
- Ashley, R & Granger, C W J & Schmalensee, R, 1980. "Advertising and Aggregate Consumption: An Analysis of Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1149-67, July.
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