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Evaluation of Extension and USDA Price and Production Forecasts

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  • Kastens, Terry L.
  • Schroeder, Ted C.

Abstract

This study evaluates Extension forecasting accuracy in an analysis of responses to the Annual Outlook Survey conducted by the American Agricultural Economics Association from 1983 through 1995. Representative and composite production and price forecasts for several commodities are examined. Extension forecasts are compared with USDA, naive, and futures-based forecasts. Relationships between forecast/forecaster features and accuracy are examined in a regression framework. Composite forecasts are more accurate than representative forecasts. Generally, Extension forecasts are less accurate than USDA forecasts for crops, but more accurate for beef production and price. Forecasters who rely more heavily on formal econometric models are slightly more accurate than those who do not.

Suggested Citation

  • Kastens, Terry L. & Schroeder, Ted C., 1996. "Evaluation of Extension and USDA Price and Production Forecasts," 1981-1999 Conference Archive 285678, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:nc8191:285678
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.285678
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    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Norwood, Bailey & Schroeder, Ted C., 2000. "Usefulness of Placement-Weight Data in Forecasting Fed Cattle Marketings and Prices," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(1), pages 63-72, April.
    3. Bahram Sanginabadi, 2018. "USDA Forecasts: A meta-analysis study," Papers 1801.06575, arXiv.org.
    4. repec:kap:iaecre:v:15:y:2009:i:4:p:470-482 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. No, Sung Chul & Salassi, Michael E., 2008. "A Sequential Rationality and Efficiency Test of U.S. Department of Agriculture Program Crop Price Estimates: Rice, Wheat, and Soybeans," 2008 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2008, Dallas, Texas 6814, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    6. Kastens, Terry L. & Dhuyvetter, Kevin C., 1999. "Post-Harvest Grain Storing And Hedging With Efficient Futures," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 24(2), pages 1-24, December.
    7. Isengildina-Massa, Olga & Sharp, Julia L., 2013. "Interval Forecast Comparison," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150791, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Michael K. Adjemian & Valentina G. Bruno & Michel A. Robe, 2020. "Incorporating Uncertainty into USDA Commodity Price Forecasts," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(2), pages 696-712, March.
    9. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2006. "Forecasting Basis Levels in the Soybean Complex: A Comparison of Time Series Methods," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(3), pages 513-523, December.
    10. Taylor, Christopher W., 2012. "Market Reactions to USDA Reports: State Analysis of Corn Price Response," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124661, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2003. "USDA Livestock Price Forecasts: A Comprehensive Evaluation," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 28(2), pages 1-19, August.
    12. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2004. "Predicting Pork Supplies: An Application of Multiple Forecast Encompassing," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 605-615, December.
    13. Unknown, 2004. "Agricultural Finance Markets in Transition Proceedings of The Annual Meeting of NCT-194 Hosted by the Center for the Study of Rural America, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City October 6 - 7, 2003," Research Bulletins 122103, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    14. Kajal Lahiri & Fushang Liu, 2006. "ARCH Models for Multi-period Forecast Uncertainty: A Reality Check Using a Panel of Density Forecasts," Advances in Econometrics, in: Econometric Analysis of Financial and Economic Time Series, pages 321-363, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    15. Adjemian, Michael K. & Bruno, Valentina G. & Robe, Michel A., 2016. "Forward‐Looking USDA Price Forecasts," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235931, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    16. Paroissien, Emmanuel, 2020. "Forecasting bulk prices of Bordeaux wines using leading indicators," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 292-309.
    17. Covey, Theodore & Erickson, Kenneth W., 2003. "Evaluating USDA Forecasts of Farm Assets: 1986-2002," 2003 Regional Committee NCT-194, October 6-7, 2003; Kansas City, Missouri 132405, Regional Research Committee NC-1014: Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition.
    18. Sung No & Michael Salassi, 2009. "A Sequential Rationality Test of USDA Preliminary Price Estimates for Selected Program Crops: Rice, Soybeans, and Wheat," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 15(4), pages 470-482, November.
    19. Dwight R. Sanders & Mark R. Manfredo, 2008. "Multiple horizons and information in USDA production forecasts," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 55-66.
    20. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2002. "Usda Production Forecasts For Pork, Beef, And Broilers: An Evaluation," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 27(01), pages 1-14, July.
    21. Brorsen, B. Wade & Anderson, Kim B., 1999. "Agricultural Economics Research And Extension Marketing Programs: How Well Are They Integrated?," Journal of Agribusiness, Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia, vol. 17(2), pages 1-13.

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