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A Sequential Rationality and Efficiency Test of U.S. Department of Agriculture Program Crop Price Estimates: Rice, Wheat, and Soybeans

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  • No, Sung Chul
  • Salassi, Michael E.

Abstract

This paper examines the USDA price estimates of rice, wheat, and soybeans and whether spot commodity prices reflect price information embodied in USDA estimates. Results indicate that the monthly USDA estimates are failed to meet a rationality condition. Rice and wheat actual prices marginally incorporate the information embodied in USDA past price estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • No, Sung Chul & Salassi, Michael E., 2008. "A Sequential Rationality and Efficiency Test of U.S. Department of Agriculture Program Crop Price Estimates: Rice, Wheat, and Soybeans," 2008 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2008, Dallas, Texas 6814, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:saeaed:6814
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bénédicte Vidaillet & V. D'Estaintot & P. Abécassis, 2005. "Introduction," Post-Print hal-00287137, HAL.
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    3. Cheung, Y. -W. & Chinn, M. D., 1998. "Integration, cointegration and the forecast consistency of structural exchange rate models," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 813-830, October.
    4. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
    5. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    6. Kastens, Terry L. & Schroeder, Ted C. & Plain, Ronald L., 1998. "Evaluation Of Extension And Usda Price And Production Forecasts," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 23(01), July.
    7. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2002. "Usda Production Forecasts For Pork, Beef, And Broilers: An Evaluation," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 27(01), July.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural and Food Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Crop Production/Industries;

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