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Agricultural Adaptation to a Changing Climate: Economic and Environmental Implications Vary by U.S. Region

Author

Listed:
  • Malcolm, Scott A.
  • Marshall, Elizabeth P.
  • Aillery, Marcel P.
  • Heisey, Paul W.
  • Livingston, Michael J.
  • Day-Rubenstein, Kelly A.

Abstract

Global climate models predict increases over time in average temperature worldwide, with significant impacts on local patterns of temperature and precipitation. The extent to which such changes present a risk to food supplies, farmer livelihoods, and rural communities depends in part on the direction, magnitude, and rate of such changes, but equally importantly on the ability of the agricultural sector to adapt to changing patterns of yield and productivity, production cost, and resource availability. Study findings suggest that, while impacts are highly sensitive to uncertain climate projections, farmers have considerable fl exibility to adapt to changes in local weather, resource conditions, and price signals by adjusting crops, rotations, and production practices. Such adaptation, using existing crop production technologies, can partially mitigate the impacts of climate change on national agricultural markets. Adaptive redistribution of production, however, may have signifi cant implications for both regional land use and environmental quality.

Suggested Citation

  • Malcolm, Scott A. & Marshall, Elizabeth P. & Aillery, Marcel P. & Heisey, Paul W. & Livingston, Michael J. & Day-Rubenstein, Kelly A., 2012. "Agricultural Adaptation to a Changing Climate: Economic and Environmental Implications Vary by U.S. Region," Economic Research Report 127734, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:uersrr:127734
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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/127734
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Livingston, Michael J. & Storer, Nicholas P. & Van Duyn, John W. & Kennedy, George G., 2007. "Do Refuge Requirements for Biotechnology Crops Promote Economic Efficiency? Some Evidence for Bt Cotton," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(01), pages 171-185, April.
    2. Ding, Ya & Schoengold, Karina & Tadesse, Tsegaye, 2009. "The Impact of Weather Extremes on Agricultural Production Methods: Does Drought Increase Adoption of Conservation Tillage Practices?," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 34(3), December.
    3. Fuglie, Keith O. & Heisey, Paul W., 2007. "Economic Returns to Public Agricultural Research," Economic Brief 6388, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    4. Roberts, Michael J. & Schimmelpfennig, David E. & Ashley, Elizabeth & Livingston, Michael J. & Ash, Mark S. & Vasavada, Utpal, 2006. "The Value of Plant Disease Early-Warning Systems: A Case Study of USDA's Soybean Rust Coordinated Framework," Economic Research Report 7208, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    5. Fernandez-Cornejo, Jorge & Livingston, Michael J. & Mitchell, Lorraine & Wechsler, Seth, 2014. "Genetically Engineered Crops in the United States," Economic Research Report 164263, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    6. Nigel Key & Stacy Sneeringer, 2014. "Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Productivity of U.S. Dairies," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1136-1156.
    7. Michael J. Livingston & Gerald A. Carlson & Paul L. Fackler, 2004. "Managing Resistance Evolution in Two Pests to Two Toxins with Refugia," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(1), pages 1-13.
    8. Livingston, Michael J. & Storer, Nicholas P. & Van Duyn, John W. & Kennedy, George G., 2007. "Do Refuge Requirements for Biotechnology Crops Promote Economic Efficiency? Some Evidence for Bt Cotton," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 39(01), April.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Takle, Eugene S. & Gustafson, David & Beachy, Roger & Neslon, Gerald C. & Mason-D'Croz, Daniel & Palazzo, Amanda, 2013. "US food security and climate change: Agricultural futures," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 7, pages 1-41.
    2. Key, Nigel D. & Sneeringer, Stacy & Marquardt, David, 2014. "Climate Change, Heat Stress, and U.S. Dairy Production," Economic Research Report 186731, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    3. repec:nbr:nberch:13944 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. J. Stuart Carlton & Amber S. Mase & Cody L. Knutson & Maria Carmen Lemos & Tonya Haigh & Dennis P. Todey & Linda S. Prokopy, 2016. "The effects of extreme drought on climate change beliefs, risk perceptions, and adaptation attitudes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(2), pages 211-226, March.
    5. Wang, Ruoyu & Bowling, Laura C. & Cherkauer, Keith A. & Cibin, Raj & Her, Younggu & Chaubey, Indrajeet, 2017. "Biophysical and hydrological effects of future climate change including trends in CO2, in the St. Joseph River watershed, Eastern Corn Belt," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 180(PB), pages 280-296.
    6. repec:cup:jagaec:v:46:y:2014:i:04:p:439-456_02 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Sun Ling Wang & Eldon Ball & Richard Nehring & Ryan Williams & Truong Chau, 2017. "Impacts of Climate Change and Extreme Weather on U.S. Agricultural Productivity: Evidence and Projection," NBER Chapters,in: Understanding Productivity Growth in Agriculture National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Njuki, Eric & Bravo-Ureta, Boris E., 2016. "Measuring agricultural water productivity using a partial factor productivity approach," 2016 AAAE Fifth International Conference, September 23-26, 2016, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 246948, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    9. Alexander P. Helling & David S. Conner & Sarah N. Heiss & Linda S. Berlin, 2015. "Economic Analysis of Climate Change Best Management Practices in Vermont Agriculture," Agriculture, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(3), pages 1-22, September.
    10. Tsvetan Tsvetanov & Lingqiao Qi & Deep Mukherjee & Farhed Shah & Boris Bravo-Ureta, 2016. "Climate Change And Land Use In Southeastern U.S.: Did The “Dumb Farmer” Get It Wrong?," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(03), pages 1-35, August.
    11. Heisey, Paul & Day-Rubenstein, Kelly, 2015. "Using Crop Genetic Resources To Help Agriculture Adapt to Climate Change: Economics and Policy," Economic Information Bulletin 202351, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    12. Lambert, David K., 2014. "Historical Impacts of Precipitation and Temperature on Farm Production in Kansas," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(04), pages 439-456, November.

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