IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/nbr/nberch/13944.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

Impacts of Climate Change and Extreme Weather on U.S. Agricultural Productivity: Evidence and Projection

In: Agricultural Productivity and Producer Behavior

Author

Listed:
  • Sun Ling Wang
  • Eldon Ball
  • Richard Nehring
  • Ryan Williams
  • Truong Chau

Abstract

This paper employs a stochastic frontier approach to examine how climate change and extreme weather affect U.S. agricultural productivity using 1940-1970 historical weather data (mean and variation) as the norm. We have four major findings. First, using temperature humidity index (THI) load and Oury index for the period 1960-2010 we find each state has experienced different patterns of climate change in the past half century, with some states incurring drier and warmer conditions than others. Second, the higher the THI load (more heat waves) and the lower the Oury index (much drier) will tend to lower a state’s productivity. Third, the impacts of THI load shock and Oury index shock variables (deviations from historical norm fluctuations) on productivity are more robust than the level of THI and Oury index variables across specifications. Fourth, we project potential impacts of climate change and extreme weather on U.S. regional productivity based on the estimates. We find that the same degree changes in temperature or precipitation will have uneven impacts on regional productivities, with Delta, Northeast, and Southeast regions incurring much greater effects than other regions, using 2000-2010 as the reference period.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Sun Ling Wang & Eldon Ball & Richard Nehring & Ryan Williams & Truong Chau, 2017. "Impacts of Climate Change and Extreme Weather on U.S. Agricultural Productivity: Evidence and Projection," NBER Chapters,in: Agricultural Productivity and Producer Behavior National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:13944
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c13944.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Huffman, Wallace, 2009. "Measuring Public Agricultural Research Capital and Its Contribution to State Agricultural Productivity," Staff General Research Papers Archive 13123, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    2. W.J.R. Alexander & F. Bailey, 2007. "Solar Activity and Climate Change—A Summary," Energy & Environment, , vol. 18(6), pages 801-804, November.
    3. Kim, Kwansoo & Chavas, Jean-Paul, 2003. "Technological change and risk management: an application to the economics of corn production," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 125-142, October.
    4. Malcolm, Scott A. & Marshall, Elizabeth P. & Aillery, Marcel P. & Heisey, Paul W. & Livingston, Michael J. & Day-Rubenstein, Kelly A., 2012. "Agricultural Adaptation to a Changing Climate: Economic and Environmental Implications Vary by U.S. Region," Economic Research Report 127734, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    5. Wang, Sun Ling & Heisey, Paul & Schimmelpfennig, David & Ball, Eldon, 2015. "Agricultural Productivity Growth in the United States: Measurement, Trends, and Drivers," Economic Research Report 207954, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    6. Collins, Julie, 2007. "Climate Change and Emissions Trading (Power Point)," 2007 Seminar, August 24, 2007, Wellington, New Zealand 97617, New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    7. Paltasingh, Kirtti Ranjan & Goyari, Phanindra & Mishra, R.K., 2012. "Measuring Weather Impact on Crop Yield Using Aridity Index: Evidence from Odisha," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 25(2).
    8. Lambert, David K. & Gong, Jian, 2010. "Dynamic Adjustment of U.S. Agriculture to Energy Price Changes," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 42(02), May.
    9. Bernard Oury, 1965. "Allowing for Weather in Crop Production Model Building," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 47(2), pages 270-283.
    10. Jikun Huang & Yangjie Wang & Jinxia Wang, 2015. "Farmers' Adaptation to Extreme Weather Events through Farm Management and Its Impacts on the Mean and Risk of Rice Yield in China," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 97(2), pages 602-617.
    11. Nigel Key & Stacy Sneeringer, 2014. "Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Productivity of U.S. Dairies," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1136-1156.
    12. Nicholas E. Rada & Steven T. Buccola & Keith O. Fuglie, 2010. "Government Policy and Agricultural Productivity in Indonesia," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 93(3), pages 863-880.
    13. Battese, G E & Coelli, T J, 1995. "A Model for Technical Inefficiency Effects in a Stochastic Frontier Production Function for Panel Data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 325-332.
    14. Sachs, Jeffrey D & Warner, Andrew M, 1997. "Sources of Slow Growth in African Economies," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 6(3), pages 335-376, October.
    15. Aigner, Dennis & Lovell, C. A. Knox & Schmidt, Peter, 1977. "Formulation and estimation of stochastic frontier production function models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 21-37, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture
    • Q16 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - R&D; Agricultural Technology; Biofuels; Agricultural Extension Services
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:13944. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.