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Climate change and Migration: Is Agriculture the Main Channel?

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  • Chiara Falco
  • Marzio Galeotti
  • Alessandro Olper

Abstract

Migration and climate change are two of the most important challenges the world currently faces. They are connected as climate change may stimulate migration. One of the sectors most strongly affected by climate change is agriculture, where most of the world’s poor are employed. Climate change may affect agricultural productivity and hence migration because of its impact on average temperatures and rainfall and because it increases the frequency and intensity of weather shocks. This paper uses 50 years of data, from 1960 to 2010, for more than 150 countries to analyse the relationship between weather variation, agricultural productivity and migration. Our main findings are that, in line with theoretical predictions, negative shocks to agricultural productivity caused by weather fluctuations significantly increase migration in middle and lower income countries but not in the poorest and in the rich countries. The results are robust to different econometric specifications.

Suggested Citation

  • Chiara Falco & Marzio Galeotti & Alessandro Olper, 2018. "Climate change and Migration: Is Agriculture the Main Channel?," IEFE Working Papers 100, IEFE, Center for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
  • Handle: RePEc:bcu:iefewp:iefewp100
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    Cited by:

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    3. Danilo Bertoni & Daniele Cavicchioli & Franco Donzelli & Giovanni Ferrazzi & Dario G. Frisio & Roberto Pretolani & Elena Claire Ricci & Vera Ventura, 2018. "Recent Contributions of Agricultural Economics Research in the Field of Sustainable Development," Agriculture, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(12), pages 1-20, December.
    4. Chambru, Cédric, 2020. "Weather shocks, poverty and crime in 18th-century Savoy," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate Change; Temperature; Agriculture; International Migration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment

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