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Reaching Brazil's Nationally Determined Contributions: An Assessment of the Key Transitions in Final Demand and Employment

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  • Florent MCISAAC
  • Daniel BASTIDAS

Abstract

Brazil has achieved significant advances in climate mitigation by reducing its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the last decade. Additionally, Brazil commits to furthering its actions through the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), issued during the Paris Agreement. The country also anticipates a significant increase in GDP in the years to come. Chen et al (2012)’s main conclusion was that if deforestation were to be greatly reduced, the burden of cutting CO2 emissions from energy use and industrial processes would be minimal. However, recent data on land-use emissions show that additional efforts might also be required in the energy sector. Using Brazil’s industrial structure, we evaluate the minimal changes needed in domestic final demand to meet both the NDC target and the forecasted economic growth. Our results show that it may be possible to meet both objectives with policies that incentivize a service-oriented economy while lowering investments in the manufactuing and extracting sectors. Furthermore, this strategy could be net job-creating, would rely on fewer imported products, and would generate tax revenue. However, wages could decrease.

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  • Florent MCISAAC & Daniel BASTIDAS, 2019. "Reaching Brazil's Nationally Determined Contributions: An Assessment of the Key Transitions in Final Demand and Employment," Working Paper 911644f9-625d-496f-8ecf-8, Agence française de développement.
  • Handle: RePEc:avg:wpaper:en10275
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    2. Cahen-Fourot, Louison & Campiglio, Emanuele & Godin, Antoine & Kemp-Benedict, Eric & Trsek, Stefan, 2021. "Capital stranding cascades: The impact of decarbonisation on productive asset utilisation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    3. Carvalho, N.B. & Berrêdo Viana, D. & Muylaert de Araújo, M.S. & Lampreia, J. & Gomes, M.S.P. & Freitas, M.A.V., 2020. "How likely is Brazil to achieve its NDC commitments in the energy sector? A review on Brazilian low-carbon energy perspectives," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    4. Rego, Erik Eduardo & Costa, Oswaldo L.V. & Ribeiro, Celma de Oliveira & Lima Filho, Roberto Ivo da R. & Takada, Hellinton & Stern, Julio, 2020. "The trade-off between demand growth and renewables: A multiperiod electricity planning model under CO2 emission constraints," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    5. Mirian Bortoluzzi & Marcelo Furlan & Simone Geitenes Colombo & Tatiele Martins Amaral & Celso Correia de Souza & José Francisco dos Reis Neto & Josimar Fernandes de França, 2021. "Combining Value-Focused Thinking and PROMETHEE Techniques for Selecting a Portfolio of Distributed Energy Generation Projects in the Brazilian Electricity Sector," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-19, October.
    6. Carolina Grottera & Giovanna Ferrazzo Naspolini & Emilio Lèbre La Rovere & Daniel Neves Schmitz Gonçalves & Tainan de Farias Nogueira & Otto Hebeda & Carolina Burle Schmidt Dubeux & George Vasconcelos, 2022. "Energy policy implications of carbon pricing scenarios for the Brazilian NDC implementation," Post-Print hal-03791419, HAL.
    7. Antoine GODIN & Paul HADJI-LAZARO, 2020. "Demand-induced transition risks: A systemic approach applied to South Africa," Working Paper 1ec2dacf-58b9-4235-8d35-4, Agence française de développement.
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    9. Magacho, Guilherme & Espagne, Etienne & Godin, Antoine & Mantes, Achilleas & Yilmaz, Devrim, 2023. "Macroeconomic exposure of developing economies to low-carbon transition," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).

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