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Long-term migration trends and rising temperatures: the role of irrigation

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  • Théo Benonnier
  • Katrin Millock
  • Vis Taraz

Abstract

Climate variability has the potential to affect both international and internal migration profoundly. Earlier work finds that higher temperatures reduce agricultural yields, which in turn reduces migration rates in low-income countries, due to liquidity constraints. We test whether access to irrigation modulates this temperature–migration relationship, since irrigation buffers agricultural incomes from high temperatures. We regress measures of international and internal migration on decadal averages of temperature and rainfall, interacted with country-level data on irrigation and income. We find robust evidence that, for poor countries, irrigation access significantly offsets the negative effect of increasing temperatures on internal migration, as proxied by urbanisation rates. Our results demonstrate the importance of considering access to alternative adaptation strategies when analysing the temperature-migration relationship.

Suggested Citation

  • Théo Benonnier & Katrin Millock & Vis Taraz, 2022. "Long-term migration trends and rising temperatures: the role of irrigation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 307-330, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:teepxx:v:11:y:2022:i:3:p:307-330
    DOI: 10.1080/21606544.2021.1993348
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    Cited by:

    1. Knight, John, 2024. "The direct and indirect economic consequences of climate damage in poor countries," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(1), pages 1-18, February.
    2. Ateba Boyomo Henri Aurélien & Enouga Mathilde Marthe, 2026. "Climate change and international migration in Sub-Saharan Africa: Effects and transmission channels," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 28(1), pages 281-321, January.
    3. Brunel, Claire & Liu, Maggie Y., 2025. "Out of the Frying Pan: Weather shocks and internal migration in Brazil," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    4. Gauri Sreekumar & Sabuj Kumar Mandal, 2024. "Impact of drought on out-migration among rural farm households in India: does participation in non-farm activities and access to irrigation make any difference?," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 525-558, December.
    5. Marbler, Alexander, 2024. "Water scarcity and local economic activity: Spatial spillovers and the role of irrigation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).

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