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Climate Variability and Inter-State Migration in India

Author

Listed:
  • Ingrid Dallmann

    (Université d'Orsay, RITM - Réseaux Innovation Territoires et Mondialisation - UP11 - Université Paris-Sud - Paris 11)

  • Katrin Millock

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

Abstract

We match climate data to migration data from the 1991 and 2001 Indian Censuses to investigate the impact of climate variability on internal migration. The article makes four contributions to the existing literature on macro-level migration flows. First, use of census data allows us to test and compare the effect on migration of climatic factors prior to migration. Second, we introduce relevant meteorological indicators of climate variability, to measure the frequency, duration, and magnitude of drought and excess precipitation based on the Standardized Precipitation Index. Third, we estimate the total effect (direct and indirect effects) of climate variability on bilateral migration rates. Fourth, we examine three possible channels through which climate variability might induce migration: average income, agriculture, and urbanization. The estimation results show that drought frequency in the origin state increases inter-state migration in India. This effect is stronger in agricultural states, and in such states the magnitude of drought also increases inter-state migration significantly. Drought frequency has the strongest effect on rural–rural inter-state migration.

Suggested Citation

  • Ingrid Dallmann & Katrin Millock, 2017. "Climate Variability and Inter-State Migration in India," Post-Print halshs-01630310, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01630310
    DOI: 10.1093/cesifo/ifx014
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01630310
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nathan Delacrétaz & Bruno Lanz & Amir Delju & Etienne Piguet & Martine Rebetez, 2021. "Impacts of rainfall shocks on out-migration are moderated more by per capita income than by agricultural output in Turkiye," IRENE Working Papers 21-06, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    2. Michel Beine & Lionel Jeusette, 2018. "A Meta-Analysis of the Literature on Climate Change and Migration," CESifo Working Paper Series 7417, CESifo.
    3. Théo Benonnier & Katrin Millock & Vis Taraz, 2019. "Climate change, migration, and irrigation," Working Papers halshs-02107098, HAL.
    4. Bhaskar Jyoti Neog, 2022. "Temperature shocks and rural labour markets: evidence from India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 171(1), pages 1-20, March.
    5. Marchetta, Francesca & Sahn, David E. & Tiberti, Luca & Dufour, Johany, 2021. "Heterogeneity in Migration Responses to Climate Shocks: Evidence from Madagascar," IZA Discussion Papers 14052, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Keiti Kondi & Stefanija Veljanoska, 2023. "Internal Migration as a Response to Soil Degradation: Evidence from Malawi," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2023004, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    7. Michał Burzyński & Christoph Deuster & Frédéric Docquier & Jaime de Melo, 2022. "Climate Change, Inequality, and Human Migration [“The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country.”]," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 1145-1197.
    8. Julian Roeckert & Kati Kraehnert, 2022. "Extreme Weather Events and Internal Migration: Evidence from Mongolia," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 95-128, March.
    9. Michel BEINE & Lionel JEUSETTE, 2021. "A Meta-analysis of the Literature on Climate Change and Migration," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 293-344, September.
    10. Michał Burzyński & Frédéric DOCQUIER & Hendrik SCHEEWEL, 2021. "The Geography of Climate Migration," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 345-381, September.
    11. Helbling, Marc & Auer, Daniel & Meierrieks, Daniel & Mistry, Malcolm & Schaub, Max, 2021. "Climate change literacy and migration potential: micro-level evidence from Africa," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    12. Taraz, Vis, 2018. "Can farmers adapt to higher temperatures? Evidence from India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 205-219.
    13. Barbora Šedová & Lucia Čizmaziová & Athene Cook, 2021. "A meta-analysis of climate migration literature," CEPA Discussion Papers 29, Center for Economic Policy Analysis.
    14. Florent MCISAAC & Daniel BASTIDAS, 2019. "Reaching Brazil's Nationally Determined Contributions: An Assessment of the Key Transitions in Final Demand and Employment," Working Paper 911644f9-625d-496f-8ecf-8, Agence française de développement.
    15. Trinh, Trong-Anh & Feeny, Simon & Posso, Alberto, 2021. "The impact of natural disasters on migration: findings from Vietnam," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 479-510, September.
    16. Michael Berlemann & Thi Xuyen Tran, 2020. "Climate-Related Hazards and Internal Migration Empirical Evidence for Rural Vietnam," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 385-409, July.
    17. Cristina Cattaneo & Timothy Foreman, 2021. "Climate Change, International Migration, and Interstate Conflict," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 2109, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
    18. Michel Beine & Ilan Noy & Christopher Parsons, 2019. "Climate Change, Migration and Voice - An Explanation for the Immobility Paradox," DEM Discussion Paper Series 19-14, Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg.
    19. Els BEKEART & Ilse RUYSSEN & Sara SALOMONE, 2021. "Domestic and International Migration Intentions in Response to Environmental Stress: A Global Cross-country Analysis," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 383-436, September.
    20. Michel Beine & Ilan Noy & Christopher Parsons, 2021. "Climate change, migration and voice," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(1), pages 1-27, July.
    21. Sedova, Barbora & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2020. "Who are the climate migrants and where do they go? Evidence from rural India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    22. Kaori Tembata & Kenji Takeuchi, 2018. "The Impact Of Climate Variability On Drought Management: Evidence From Japanese River Basins," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(04), pages 1-20, November.
    23. Dimitri Defrance & Esther Delesalle & Flore Gubert, 2020. "Is migration drought-induced in Mali? An empirical analysis using panel data on Malian localities over the 1987-2009 period," Working Papers DT/2020/01, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    24. Oliveira, Jaqueline & Pereda, Paula, 2020. "The impact of climate change on internal migration in Brazil," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).

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