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Weather shocks and migration intentions in Western Africa: Insights from a multilevel analysis

Author

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  • Simone Bertoli

    () (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UCA [2017-2020] - Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Frédéric Docquier

    (UCL IRES - Institut de recherches économiques et sociales - UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain)

  • Hillel Rapoport

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Ilse Ruyssen

    (UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain)

Abstract

We use a multilevel approach to characterize the relationship between weather shocks and (internal and international) migration intentions. We combine individual survey data on migration intentions with measures of localized weather shocks for Western African countries over 2008-2016. A meta-analysis on results from about 310,000 regressions is conducted to identify the specification of weather anomalies that maximizes the goodness of fit of our empirical model. We then use this best specification to document heterogeneous mobility responses to weather shocks, which can be due to differences in long-term climatic conditions, migration perceptions, or adaptation capabilities. We find that droughts are associated with a higher probability of migration intentions in Senegal, Niger and Ivory Coast. The effect on international migration intentions are only significant in Niger. These effects are amplified, but qualitatively similar, when restricting the sample to rural low-skilled respondents.
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Suggested Citation

  • Simone Bertoli & Frédéric Docquier & Hillel Rapoport & Ilse Ruyssen, 2019. "Weather shocks and migration intentions in Western Africa: Insights from a multilevel analysis," Post-Print hal-02315013, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02315013
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02315013
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    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Riccardo Turati, 2020. "Network-based Connectedness and the Diffusion of Cultural Traits," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2020012, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    2. John Aoga & Juhee Bae & Stefanija Veljanoska & Siegfried Nijssen & Pierre Schaus, 2020. "Impact of weather factors on migration intention using machine learning algorithms," Papers 2012.02794, arXiv.org.
    3. Juhee Bae & John Aoga & Stefanija Veljanoska & Siegfried Nijssen & Pierre Schaus, 2020. "Impact of Weather Factors on Migration Intention using Machine Learning Algorithms," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2020034, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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