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Weather shocks and migration intentions in Western Africa: Insights from a multilevel analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Simone Bertoli

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UCA [2017-2020] - Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Frédéric Docquier

    (UCL IRES - Institut de recherches économiques et sociales - UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain)

  • Hillel Rapoport

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Ilse Ruyssen

    (UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain)

Abstract

We use a multilevel approach to characterize the relationship between weather shocks and (internal and international) migration intentions. We combine individual survey data on migration intentions with measures of localized weather shocks for Western African countries over 2008-2016. A meta-analysis on results from about 310,000 regressions is conducted to identify the specification of weather anomalies that maximizes the goodness of fit of our empirical model. We then use this best specification to document heterogeneous mobility responses to weather shocks, which can be due to differences in long-term climatic conditions, migration perceptions, or adaptation capabilities. We find that droughts are associated with a higher probability of migration intentions in Senegal, Niger and Ivory Coast. The effect on international migration intentions are only significant in Niger. These effects are amplified, but qualitatively similar, when restricting the sample to rural low-skilled respondents.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Simone Bertoli & Frédéric Docquier & Hillel Rapoport & Ilse Ruyssen, 2019. "Weather shocks and migration intentions in Western Africa: Insights from a multilevel analysis," Post-Print hal-02315013, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02315013
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Riccardo Turati, 2025. "Networks abroad and culture: global individual-level evidence," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 38(1), pages 1-42, March.
    2. Andrea Cinque & Lennart Reiners, 2022. "Confined to Stay: Natural Disasters and Indonesia's Migration Ban," CESifo Working Paper Series 9837, CESifo.
    3. repec:tsu:tewpjp:2024-003 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Linguère Mously Mbaye, 2023. "Climate change, natural disasters, and migration," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 3462-3462, November.
    5. Marguerite Obolensky & Marco Tabellini & Charles Taylor, 2024. "Homeward Bound: How Migrants Seek Out Familiar Climates," RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series 2401, ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin).
    6. Nathan Delacrétaz & Bruno Lanz & Amir Delju & Etienne Piguet & Martine Rebetez, 2021. "Impacts of rainfall shocks on out-migration are moderated more by per capita income than by agricultural output in Turkiye," IRENE Working Papers 21-06, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    7. Luisito Bertinelli & Arrnaud Bourgain & Elisabeth Kempter, 2025. "“From fields to frontiers” - Cash crop price shocks and migration intentions in rural Africa," DEM Discussion Paper Series 25-03, Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg.
    8. Riccardo Turati, 2020. "Network-based Connectedness and the Diffusion of Cultural Traits," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2020012, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    9. Julius Berger, 2024. "Risky Environment: How Extreme Weather Conditions in Nigeria Lead to Harvest Failure," ifo Working Paper Series 412, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    10. Hagen-Zanker, Jessica & Carling, Jørgen & Caso, Nicolás & Rubio, Marcela G., 2025. "The multi-level determinants of international migration aspirations in 25 communities in Africa, Asia and the Middle East," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    11. Marius Braun, 2021. "A Real-Options Analysis of Climate Change and International Migration," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202138, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    12. John Aoga & Juhee Bae & Stefanija Veljanoska & Siegfried Nijssen & Pierre Schaus, 2020. "Impact of weather factors on migration intention using machine learning algorithms," Papers 2012.02794, arXiv.org.
    13. Marco Letta & Pierluigi Montalbano & Adriana Paolantonio, 2024. "Climate Immobility Traps: A Household-Level Test," Papers 2403.09470, arXiv.org.
    14. Martínez Flores, Fernanda & Milusheva, Sveta & Reichert, Arndt R. & Reitmann, Ann-Kristin, 2024. "Climate anomalies and international migration: A disaggregated analysis for West Africa," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    15. Bekaert, Els & Ruyssen, Ilse & Salomone, Sara, 2021. "Domestic and international migration intentions in response to environmental stress: A global cross-country analysis," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 383-436, September.
    16. Kafle, Kashi & Wang, Yuanhang & Kiiza, Barnabas, 2024. "Too poor to migrate? Weather shocks reduce temporary migration among smallscale farmers in Uganda," IAAE 2024 Conference, August 2-7, 2024, New Delhi, India 344270, International Association of Agricultural Economists (IAAE).
    17. repec:ags:cfcp15:344270 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Braun, Marius, 2022. "A Real-Options Analysis of Climate Change and International Migration," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264006, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    19. Mauro Lanati & Rainer Thiele, 2025. "The Impact of Regional Growth on Internal Migration: A District-Level Analysis for Malawi," Working Papers - Economics wp2025_15.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
    20. Cinque, Andrea & Gehrke, Esther & Reiners, Lennart, 2026. "Confined to stay: Migration restrictions, natural disasters, and poverty," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    21. Obolensky, Marguerite & Tabellini, Marco & Taylor, Charles A., 2024. "Homeward Bound: How Migrants Seek Out Familiar Climates," IZA Discussion Papers 16710, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    22. Marc Helbling & Diego Rybski & Jacob Schewe & Stefan Siedentop & Manon Glockmann & Bastian Heider & Bryan Jones & Daniel Meierrieks & Albano Rikani & Peter Stroms, 2023. "Measuring the effect of climate change on migration flows: Limitations of existing data and analytical frameworks," PLOS Climate, Public Library of Science, vol. 2(1), pages 1-10, January.
    23. Juhee Bae & John Aoga & Stefanija Veljanoska & Siegfried Nijssen & Pierre Schaus, 2020. "Impact of Weather Factors on Migration Intention using Machine Learning Algorithms," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2020034, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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