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Confined to stay: Migration restrictions, natural disasters, and poverty

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  • Cinque, Andrea
  • Gehrke, Esther
  • Reiners, Lennart

Abstract

How do restrictions to international migration affect communities’ ability to cope with natural disasters? We exploit the implementation of an emigration ban for millions of Indonesians wanting to migrate to Saudi Arabia as a natural experiment. Our identification strategy relies on pre-determined migration networks and on the exogenous timing of the ban and of natural disasters. Using a panel of the universe of Indonesian villages and a triple difference approach, we demonstrate that poverty increases in the wake of natural disasters are higher in communities with strong ex-ante migration ties to Saudi Arabia after the ban was implemented. This highlights the importance of international migration as a climate change adaptation strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Cinque, Andrea & Gehrke, Esther & Reiners, Lennart, 2026. "Confined to stay: Migration restrictions, natural disasters, and poverty," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:178:y:2026:i:c:s0304387825001567
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103605
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty

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