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Managing the Impact of Climate Change on Migration: Evidence from Mexico

Listed author(s):
  • Isabelle Chort

    ()

    (LEDa, UMR DIAL-Paris-Dauphine)

  • Maelys de la Rupelle

    ()

    (THEMA, Université de Cergy-Pontoise)

This paper uses state-level migration flow data between Mexico and the U.S. from 1999 to 2011 to investigate the migration response to climate shocks and the mitigating impact of an agricultural cash-transfer program (PROCAMPO) and a disaster fund (Fonden). Our results suggest that droughts increase undocumented migration. Fonden amounts are found to mitigate the effect of climate shocks by lowering the undocumented migration response to precipitation anomalies. Similarly an increase in the share of PROCAMPO funds to the ejido sector decreases undocumented migration after a shock. By contrast, we find no robust evidence of a mitigating impact on documented migration.

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File URL: http://www.dial.ird.fr/media/ird-sites-d-unites-de-recherche/dial/documents/publications/doc_travail/2017/2017-04
File Function: First version, 2017
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Paper provided by DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation) in its series Working Papers with number DT/2017/04.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2017
Handle: RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt201704
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  1. Mendelsohn, Robert & Emanuel, Kerry & Chonabayashi, Shun, 2011. "The impact of climate change on global tropical storm damages," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5562, The World Bank.
  2. Cattaneo, Cristina & Peri, Giovanni, 2016. "The migration response to increasing temperatures," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 127-146.
  3. Gordon H. Hanson, 2006. "Illegal Migration from Mexico to the United States," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 44(4), pages 869-924, December.
  4. Michel Beine & Christopher Parsons, 2015. "Climatic Factors as Determinants of International Migration," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 117(2), pages 723-767, April.
  5. Isabelle Chort & Maëlys Rupelle, 2016. "Determinants of Mexico-U.S. Outward and Return Migration Flows: A State-Level Panel Data Analysis," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 53(5), pages 1453-1476, October.
  6. Raphael Nawrotzki & Fernando Riosmena & Lori Hunter, 2013. "Do Rainfall Deficits Predict U.S.-Bound Migration from Rural Mexico? Evidence from the Mexican Census," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 32(1), pages 129-158, February.
  7. Ingrid Dallmann & Katrin Millock, 2016. "Climate Variability and Internal Migration: A Test on Indian Inter-State Migration," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00825807, HAL.
  8. Chort, Isabelle, 2014. "Mexican Migrants to the US: What Do Unrealized Migration Intentions Tell Us About Gender Inequalities?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 535-552.
  9. Coniglio, Nicola D. & Pesce, Giovanni, 2015. "Climate variability and international migration: an empirical analysis," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(04), pages 434-468, August.
  10. Ingrid Dallmann & Katrin Millock, 2013. "Climate Variability and Internal Migration: A Test on Indian Inter-State Migration," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 13045r, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, revised Mar 2016.
  11. Shuaizhang Feng & Michael Oppenheimer & Wolfram Schlenker, 2012. "Climate Change, Crop Yields, and Internal Migration in the United States," NBER Working Papers 17734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Valsecchi, Michele, 2014. "Land property rights and international migration: Evidence from Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 276-290.
  13. Cai, Ruohong & Feng, Shuaizhang & Oppenheimer, Michael & Pytlikova, Mariola, 2016. "Climate variability and international migration: The importance of the agricultural linkage," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 135-151.
  14. Conley, T. G., 1999. "GMM estimation with cross sectional dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-45, September.
  15. Eakin, Hallie, 2005. "Institutional change, climate risk, and rural vulnerability: Cases from Central Mexico," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1923-1938, November.
  16. Kaivan Munshi, 2003. "Networks in the Modern Economy: Mexican Migrants in the U. S. Labor Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(2), pages 549-599.
  17. Mariaflavia Harari & Eliana La Ferrara, 2012. "Conflict, Climate and Cells: A disaggregated analysis," Working Papers 461, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  18. Manuela Angelucci, 2015. "Migration and Financial Constraints: Evidence from Mexico," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(1), pages 224-228, March.
  19. Conley, Timothy G & Ligon, Ethan, 2002. "Economic Distance and Cross-Country Spillovers," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 157-187, June.
  20. De Janvry,Alain F. & del Valle,Alejandro & Sadoulet,Elisabeth Marie L., 2016. "Insuring growth : the impact of disaster funds on economic reconstruction in Mexico," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7714, The World Bank.
  21. Guy Stecklov & Paul Winters & Marco Stampini & Benjamin Davis, 2005. "Do conditional cash transfers influence migration? A study using experimental data from the Mexican progresa program," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 42(4), pages 769-790, November.
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