IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/cesptp/halshs-00825807.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Climate Variability and Internal Migration: A Test on Indian Inter-State Migration

Author

Listed:
  • Ingrid Dallmann

    () (Analyse des Dynamiques Industrielles et Sociales (ADIS) - UP11 - Université Paris-Sud - Paris 11)

  • Katrin Millock

    () (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics)

Abstract

We match migration data from the 1991 and 2001 Indian Census with climate data to test the hypothesis of climate variability as a push factor for internal migration. The article contributes to the literature by combining three important factors. First, we introduce relevant meteorological indicators of climate variability, based on the standardized precipitation index. Second, the use of the census data enables us to match the migration data with the relevant climate data ex ante, rather than relying on average conditions. Third, we analyse bilateral migration rates in order to fully account for characteristics in both the origin and the destination. We therefore use an econometric estimation method that accounts for zero observations, which are frequent in bilateral data. The estimation results show that drought frequency in the origin state acts as push factor on inter-state migration in India. We do not find a statistically significant effect of the magnitude and the duration of drought episodes preceding migration. There is no evidence of excess precipitation acting as a push factor on inter-state migration. The results are robust to alternative specifications of fixed effects and to the inclusion of irrigation rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Ingrid Dallmann & Katrin Millock, 2016. "Climate Variability and Internal Migration: A Test on Indian Inter-State Migration," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00825807, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00825807
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00825807v2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00825807v2/document
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bertoli, Simone & Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús, 2013. "Multilateral resistance to migration," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 79-100.
    2. Lewer, Joshua J. & Van den Berg, Hendrik, 2008. "A gravity model of immigration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 164-167, April.
    3. Barrios, Salvador & Bertinelli, Luisito & Strobl, Eric, 2006. "Climatic change and rural-urban migration: The case of sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 357-371, November.
    4. Luca Marchiori & Ingmar Schumacher, 2011. "When nature rebels: international migration, climate change, and inequality," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 24(2), pages 569-600, April.
    5. Richard Hornbeck, 2012. "The Enduring Impact of the American Dust Bowl: Short- and Long-Run Adjustments to Environmental Catastrophe," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1477-1507, June.
    6. Marchiori, Luca & Maystadt, Jean-François & Schumacher, Ingmar, 2012. "The impact of weather anomalies on migration in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 355-374.
    7. Eric Strobl & Marie-Anne Valfort, 2015. "The Effect of Weather-Induced Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets. Evidence from Uganda," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 29(2), pages 385-412.
    8. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "The Log of Gravity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, November.
    9. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2009. "Temperature and Income: Reconciling New Cross-Sectional and Panel Estimates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 198-204, May.
    10. Grogger, Jeffrey & Hanson, Gordon H., 2011. "Income maximization and the selection and sorting of international migrants," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 42-57, May.
    11. Michel Beine & Christopher Parsons, 2015. "Climatic Factors as Determinants of International Migration," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 117(2), pages 723-767, April.
    12. Coniglio, Nicola D. & Pesce, Giovanni, 2015. "Climate variability and international migration: an empirical analysis," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(04), pages 434-468, August.
    13. Rosenzweig, Mark R & Stark, Oded, 1989. "Consumption Smoothing, Migration, and Marriage: Evidence from Rural India," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(4), pages 905-926, August.
    14. van Lottum, J. & Marks, D., 2010. "The Determinants of Internal Migration in a Developing Country: Quantitative Evidence for Indonesia, 1930-200," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1013, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    15. Haimanti Bhattacharya & Robert Innes, 2008. "An Empirical Exploration of the Population-Environment Nexus in India," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(4), pages 883-901.
    16. James E. Anderson, 2011. "The Gravity Model," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 133-160, September.
    17. Mitra, Arup & Murayama, Mayumi, 2008. "Rural to Urban Migration: A District Level Analysis for India," IDE Discussion Papers 137, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    18. Prabir C. Bhattacharya, 2002. "Rural-to-urban migration in LDCS: a test of two rival models," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(7), pages 951-972.
    19. Salvador Barrios & Luisito Bertinelli & Eric Strobl, 2010. "Trends in Rainfall and Economic Growth in Africa: A Neglected Cause of the African Growth Tragedy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 350-366, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michel Beine & Christopher R. Parsons, 2016. "Climatic Factors as Determinants of International Migration: Redux," CREA Discussion Paper Series 16-11, Center for Research in Economic Analysis, University of Luxembourg.
    2. Chort, Isabelle & de la Rupelle, Maëlys, 2017. "Managing the Impact of Climate Change on Migration: Evidence from Mexico," GLO Discussion Paper Series 78, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    3. repec:eee:wdevel:v:106:y:2018:i:c:p:15-26 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate variability; drought; India; internal migration; PPML; SPI;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00825807. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.