IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/cesifo/v63y2017i4p403-420..html
   My bibliography  Save this article

To Leave or Not to Leave? Climate Change, Exit, and Voice on a Pacific Island

Author

Listed:
  • Ilan Noy

Abstract

Observers predict that climate change will lead to massive migrations. Yet, most of the empirical micro- and macro-research on the link between climate change and migration fails to find much evidence of this migration happening. We focus on Tuvalu, a small South Pacific atoll nation that can serve as the canary in the mine for climate change research. If migration driven by climate change is not happening, Tuvalu may explain why. One plausible reason is the desire by Tuvaluans to Voice. ‘Voicing’, a concept we borrow from Hirschman’s Exit, Voice, and Loyalty, is the advocacy of expressing wish for change. We argue that Tuvaluans have decided that their preferred policy is to stay and Voice. This present choice to Voice may explain why the evidence on climate-induced migration is so fragile. Tuvalu may be using Voice to attempt to avert dire outcomes, or to strengthen its bargaining position for the discussions about compensation. The risk may be that the equilibrium choice between Voice and Exit is unstable and that the transition from one strategy to the other may be abrupt—in response to a catastrophic disaster. Advance planning and funding for climate-induced migration are therefore necessary through the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage.

Suggested Citation

  • Ilan Noy, 2017. "To Leave or Not to Leave? Climate Change, Exit, and Voice on a Pacific Island," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 63(4), pages 403-420.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:cesifo:v:63:y:2017:i:4:p:403-420.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/cesifo/ifx004
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tauisi Taupo & Ilan Noy, 2017. "At the Very Edge of a Storm: The Impact of a Distant Cyclone on Atoll Islands," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 143-166, July.
    2. Kerry Emanuel, 2005. "Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years," Nature, Nature, vol. 436(7051), pages 686-688, August.
    3. Ingrid Dallmann & Katrin Millock, 2017. "Climate Variability and Inter-State Migration in India," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 63(4), pages 560-594.
    4. Kelly Wyett, 2014. "Escaping a Rising Tide: Sea Level Rise and Migration in Kiribati," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies 201407, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    5. Barrios, Salvador & Bertinelli, Luisito & Strobl, Eric, 2006. "Climatic change and rural-urban migration: The case of sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 357-371, November.
    6. Bauernschuster, Stefan & Falck, Oliver & Heblich, Stephan & Suedekum, Jens & Lameli, Alfred, 2014. "Why are educated and risk-loving persons more mobile across regions?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 56-69.
    7. Jasmin Gröschl & Thomas Steinwachs, 2017. "Do Natural Hazards Cause International Migration?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 63(4), pages 445-480.
    8. Tauisi Taupo & Ilan Noy, 2017. "At the Very Edge of a Storm: The Impact of a Distant Cyclone on Atoll Islands," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 143-166, July.
    9. Schumacher, Ingmar & Strobl, Eric, 2011. "Economic development and losses due to natural disasters: The role of hazard exposure," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 97-105.
    10. Klaus Desmet & Dávid Krisztián Nagy & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2018. "The Geography of Development," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(3), pages 903-983.
    11. Adriana Kocornik-Mina & Thomas K. J. McDermott & Guy Michaels & Ferdinand Rauch, 2020. "Flooded Cities," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 35-66, April.
    12. Gibson, John & McKenzie, David, 2011. "The microeconomic determinants of emigration and return migration of the best and brightest: Evidence from the Pacific," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 18-29, May.
    13. Tauisi Taupo & Harold Cuffe & Ilan Noy, 2018. "Household vulnerability on the frontline of climate change: the Pacific atoll nation of Tuvalu," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 20(4), pages 705-739, October.
    14. Reinhard Mechler & Laurens M. Bouwer & Joanne Linnerooth-Bayer & Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler & Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts & Swenja Surminski & Keith Williges, 2014. "Managing unnatural disaster risk from climate extremes," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(4), pages 235-237, April.
    15. Tauisi Taupo & Harold Cuffe & Ilan Noy, 2018. "Household vulnerability on the frontline of climate change: the Pacific atoll nation of Tuvalu," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 20(4), pages 705-739, October.
    16. Strobl, Eric, 2012. "The economic growth impact of natural disasters in developing countries: Evidence from hurricane strikes in the Central American and Caribbean regions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 130-141.
    17. Michel Beine & Christopher Parsons, 2015. "Climatic Factors as Determinants of International Migration," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 117(2), pages 723-767, April.
    18. Klaus Desmet & Dávid Krisztián Nagy & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2015. "The Geography of Development: Evaluating Migration Restrictions and Coastal Flooding," NBER Working Papers 21087, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Jonathan D. Woodruff & Jennifer L. Irish & Suzana J. Camargo, 2013. "Coastal flooding by tropical cyclones and sea-level rise," Nature, Nature, vol. 504(7478), pages 44-52, December.
    20. James B. Elsner & James P. Kossin & Thomas H. Jagger, 2008. "The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones," Nature, Nature, vol. 455(7209), pages 92-95, September.
    21. Kelly Wyett, 2014. "Escaping a Rising Tide: Sea Level Rise and Migration in Kiribati," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 171-185, January.
    22. Martin Heger & Alex Julca & Oliver Paddison, 2008. "Analysing the Impact of Natural Hazards in Small Economies: The Caribbean Case," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2008-25, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    23. Ingrid Dallmann & Katrin Millock, 2016. "Climate Variability and Internal Migration: A Test on Indian Inter-State Migration," Post-Print halshs-00825807, HAL.
    24. Drabo, Alassane & Mbaye, Linguère Mously, 2015. "Natural disasters, migration and education: an empirical analysis in developing countries," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(6), pages 767-796, December.
    25. Ingrid Dallmann & Katrin Millock, 2016. "Climate Variability and Internal Migration: A Test on Indian Inter-State Migration," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00825807, HAL.
    26. Nam-Young Kang & James B. Elsner, 2015. "Trade-off between intensity and frequency of global tropical cyclones," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(7), pages 661-664, July.
    27. Ingrid Dallmann & Katrin Millock, 2013. "Climate Variability and Internal Migration: A Test on Indian Inter-State Migration," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 13045r, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, revised Mar 2016.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michel Beine & Christopher R Parsons, 2017. "Climatic Factors as Determinants of International Migration: Redux," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 63(4), pages 386-402.
    2. Beine, Michel & Jeusette, Lionel, 2021. "A meta-analysis of the literature on climate change and migration," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 293-344, September.
    3. Dennis Wesselbaum, 2023. "Climate migration in Asia," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Michael Brottrager & Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Dominic Kniveton & Saleem H. Ali, 2023. "Natural resources modulate the nexus between environmental shocks and human mobility," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-8, December.
    5. Tauisi Taupo & Harold Cuffe & Ilan Noy, 2018. "Household vulnerability on the frontline of climate change: the Pacific atoll nation of Tuvalu," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 20(4), pages 705-739, October.
    6. Michel Beine & Ilan Noy & Christopher Parsons, 2021. "Climate change, migration and voice," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(1), pages 1-27, July.
    7. Roberto Basile & Francesca Centofanti & Luisa Giallonardo & Francesca Licari, 2024. "Migration Responses to Earthquakes: Evidence from Italy," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 10(1), pages 269-291, March.
    8. Cassin, Lesly & Melindi-Ghidi, Paolo & Prieur, Fabien, 2022. "Confronting climate change: Adaptation vs. migration in Small Island Developing States," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    9. Esteban J. Quiñones & Sabine Liebenehm & Rasadhika Sharma, "undated". "Left Home High and Dry-Reduced Migration in Response to Repeated Droughts in Thailand and Vietnam," Mathematica Policy Research Reports ac2ba236e1b8428fbeb6d8b43, Mathematica Policy Research.
    10. Richa Richa & Ilan Noy & Subir Sen, 2024. "Extreme Weather and Inter-State Migration in India," CESifo Working Paper Series 10919, CESifo.
    11. Beine, Michel & Noy, Ilan & Parsons, Christopher, 2019. "Climate Change, Migration and Voice: An Explanation for the Immobility Paradox," IZA Discussion Papers 12640, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Michael Berlemann & Max Friedrich Steinhardt, 2017. "Climate Change, Natural Disasters, and Migration—a Survey of the Empirical Evidence," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 63(4), pages 353-385.
    13. Maya Moore & Dennis Wesselbaum, 2023. "Climatic factors as drivers of migration: a review," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 2955-2975, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ilan Noy, 2017. "To Leave or Not to Leave? Climate Change, Exit, and Voice on a Pacific Island," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 63(4), pages 403-420.
    2. Michel Beine & Christopher R Parsons, 2017. "Climatic Factors as Determinants of International Migration: Redux," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 63(4), pages 386-402.
    3. Els BEKEART & Ilse RUYSSEN & Sara SALOMONE, 2021. "Domestic and International Migration Intentions in Response to Environmental Stress: A Global Cross-country Analysis," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 383-436, September.
    4. Thomas Steinwachs, 2019. "Geography Matters: Spatial Dimensions of Trade, Migration and Growth," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 81, May.
    5. Barbora Šedová & Lucia Čizmaziová & Athene Cook, 2021. "A meta-analysis of climate migration literature," CEPA Discussion Papers 29, Center for Economic Policy Analysis.
    6. Beine, Michel & Jeusette, Lionel, 2021. "A meta-analysis of the literature on climate change and migration," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 293-344, September.
    7. Isabelle Chort & Maëlys de la Rupelle, 2022. "Managing the impact of climate on migration: evidence from Mexico," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 1777-1819, October.
    8. Trinh, Trong-Anh & Feeny, Simon & Posso, Alberto, 2021. "The impact of natural disasters on migration: findings from Vietnam," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 479-510, September.
    9. Sedova, Barbora & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2020. "Who are the climate migrants and where do they go? Evidence from rural India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    10. Tauisi Taupo & Ilan Noy, 2017. "At the Very Edge of a Storm: The Impact of a Distant Cyclone on Atoll Islands," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 143-166, July.
    11. Guy Abel & Michael Brottrager & Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Raya Muttarak, 2018. "Climate, Conflict and Forced Migration," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp272, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    12. Michał Burzyński & Christoph Deuster & Frédéric Docquier & Jaime de Melo, 2022. "Climate Change, Inequality, and Human Migration," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 1145-1197.
    13. Isabelle Chort & Maelys de la Rupelle, 2017. "Managing the Impact of Climate Change on Migration: Evidence from Mexico," Working Papers DT/2017/04, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    14. Marco Delogu & Frédéric Docquier & Joël Machado, 2018. "Globalizing labor and the world economy: the role of human capital," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 223-258, June.
    15. Michael Berlemann & Max Friedrich Steinhardt, 2017. "Climate Change, Natural Disasters, and Migration—a Survey of the Empirical Evidence," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 63(4), pages 353-385.
    16. Maya Moore & Dennis Wesselbaum, 2023. "Climatic factors as drivers of migration: a review," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 2955-2975, April.
    17. Christoph Deuster, 2019. "Climate change, education and mobility in Africa," NOVAFRICA Working Paper Series wp1904, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics, NOVAFRICA.
    18. Théo Benonnier & Katrin Millock & Vis Taraz, 2022. "Long-term migration trends and rising temperatures: the role of irrigation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 307-330, July.
    19. Cattaneo, Cristina & Foreman, Timothy, 2023. "Climate change, international migration, and interstate conflicts," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    20. Michel Beine & Ilan Noy & Christopher Parsons, 2021. "Climate change, migration and voice," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(1), pages 1-27, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    environment; international migration; protection; risk management; sustainability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:cesifo:v:63:y:2017:i:4:p:403-420.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.