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Climate, Conflict and Forced Migration

Author

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  • Abel, Guy
  • Brottrager, Michael
  • Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus
  • Muttarak, Raya

Abstract

Despite the lack of robust empirical evidence, a growing number of media reports attempt to link climate change to the ongoing violent conflicts in Syria and other parts of the world, as well as to the migration crisis in Europe. Exploiting bilateral data on asylum seeking applications for 157 countries over the period 2006-2015, we assess the determinants of refugee flows using a gravity model which accounts for endogenous selection in order to examine the causal link between climate, conflict and forced migration. Our results indicate that climatic conditions, by affecting drought severity and the likelihood of armed conflict, played a significant role as an explanatory factor for asylum seeking in the period 2011-2015. The effect of climate on conflict occurrence is particularly relevant for countries in Western Asia in the period 2010-2012 during when many countries were undergoing political transformation. This finding suggests that the impact of climate on conflict and asylum seeking flows is limited to specific time period and contexts.

Suggested Citation

  • Abel, Guy & Brottrager, Michael & Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Muttarak, Raya, 2018. "Climate, Conflict and Forced Migration," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 272, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    • Handle: RePEc:wiw:wus005:6625
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    forced migration; climate change; conflict;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions

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