IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cep/cepdps/dp1398.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Flooded Cities

Author

Listed:
  • Adriana Kocornik-Mina
  • Thomas K.J. McDermott
  • Guy Michaels
  • Ferdinand Rauch

Abstract

Does economic activity relocate away from areas that are at high risk of recurring shocks? We examine this question in the context of floods, which are among the costliest and most common natural disasters. Over the past thirty years, floods worldwide killed more than 500,000 people and displaced over 650,000,000 people. This paper analyzes the effect of large scale floods, which displaced at least 100,000 people each, in over 1,800 cities in 40 countries, from 2003-2008. We conduct our analysis using spatially detailed inundation maps and night lights data spanning the globe's urban areas. We find that low elevation areas are about 3-4 times more likely to be hit by large floods than other areas, and yet they concentrate more economic activity per square kilometre. When cities are hit by large floods, the low elevation areas also sustain more damage, but like the rest of the flooded cities they recover rapidly, and economic activity does not move to safer areas. Only in more recently populated urban areas, flooded areas show a larger and more persistent decline in economic activity. Our findings have important policy implications for aid, development and urban planning in a world with rising urbanization and sea levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Adriana Kocornik-Mina & Thomas K.J. McDermott & Guy Michaels & Ferdinand Rauch, 2015. "Flooded Cities," CEP Discussion Papers dp1398, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  • Handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1398
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/dp1398.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Leah Platt Boustan & Matthew E. Kahn & Paul W. Rhode, 2012. "Moving to Higher Ground: Migration Response to Natural Disasters in the Early Twentieth Century," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 238-244, May.
    2. repec:cup:apsrev:v:103:y:2009:i:03:p:387-406_99 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:aea:aecrev:v:107:y:2017:i:6:p:1365-98 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Coffman, Makena & Noy, Ilan, 2012. "Hurricane Iniki: measuring the long-term economic impact of a natural disaster using synthetic control," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(02), pages 187-205, April.
    5. Hoyt Bleakley & Jeffrey Lin, 2012. "Portage and Path Dependence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 127(2), pages 587-644.
    6. Michaels, Guy & Rauch, Ferdinand, 2013. "Resetting the Urban Network: 117-2012," CEPR Discussion Papers 9760, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Tatyana Deryugina & Laura Kawano & Steven Levitt, 2018. "The Economic Impact of Hurricane Katrina on Its Victims: Evidence from Individual Tax Returns," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 202-233, April.
    8. Fankhauser, Samuel & McDermott, Thomas K. J., 2014. "Understanding the adaptation deficit: why are poor countries more vulnerable to climate events than rich countries?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 57620, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Hoyt Bleakley & Jeffrey Lin, 2010. "Portage: path dependence and increasing returns in U.S. history," Working Papers 10-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    10. Tatyana Deryugina & Barrett Kirwan, 2018. "Does The Samaritan'S Dilemma Matter? Evidence From U.S. Agriculture," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 983-1006, April.
    11. Elliott, Robert J.R. & Strobl, Eric & Sun, Puyang, 2015. "The local impact of typhoons on economic activity in China: A view from outer space," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 50-66.
    12. Eckel, Catherine C. & El-Gamal, Mahmoud A. & Wilson, Rick K., 2009. "Risk loving after the storm: A Bayesian-Network study of Hurricane Katrina evacuees," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 110-124, February.
    13. Klaus Desmet & Dávid Krisztián Nagy & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2015. "The Geography of Development: Evaluating Migration Restrictions and Coastal Flooding," NBER Working Papers 21087, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Kahn, Matthew E. & Walsh, Randall, 2015. "Cities and the Environment," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, Elsevier.
    15. Richard Hornbeck & Daniel Keniston, 2017. "Creative Destruction: Barriers to Urban Growth and the Great Boston Fire of 1872," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(6), pages 1365-1398, June.
    16. Deryugina, Tatyana, 2011. "The Role of Transfer Payments in Mitigating Shocks: Evidence From the Impact of Hurricanes," MPRA Paper 53307, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Aug 2013.
    17. Emek Basker & Javier Miranda, 2014. "Taken by Storm: Business Financing, Survival, and Contagion in the Aftermath of Hurricane Katrina," Working Papers 1406, Department of Economics, University of Missouri, revised 23 Oct 2014.
    18. Justin Gallagher, 2014. "Learning about an Infrequent Event: Evidence from Flood Insurance Take-Up in the United States," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(3), pages 206-233, July.
    19. Douglas Gollin & Remi Jedwab & Dietrich Vollrath, 2013. "Urbanization with and without Structural Transformation," 2013 Meeting Papers 344, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Andrea Leiter & Harald Oberhofer & Paul Raschky, 2009. "Creative Disasters? Flooding Effects on Capital, Labour and Productivity Within European Firms," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 43(3), pages 333-350, July.
    21. Benjamin Marx & Thomas Stoker & Tavneet Suri, 2013. "The Economics of Slums in the Developing World," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(4), pages 187-210, Fall.
    22. Jedwab,Remi Camille & Christiaensen,Luc & Gindelsky,Marina, 2015. "Demography, urbanization and development : rural push, urban pull and... urban push ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7333, The World Bank.
    23. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    24. Glaeser Edward L, 2005. "Should the Government Rebuild New Orleans, Or Just Give Residents Checks?," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 2(4), pages 1-7, September.
    25. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    26. Susan Hanson & Robert Nicholls & N. Ranger & S. Hallegatte & J. Corfee-Morlot & C. Herweijer & J. Chateau, 2011. "A global ranking of port cities with high exposure to climate extremes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 89-111, January.
    27. Christopher D. Elvidge & Daniel Ziskin & Kimberly E. Baugh & Benjamin T. Tuttle & Tilottama Ghosh & Dee W. Pack & Edward H. Erwin & Mikhail Zhizhin, 2009. "A Fifteen Year Record of Global Natural Gas Flaring Derived from Satellite Data," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(3), pages 1-28, August.
    28. Kellenberg, Derek K. & Mobarak, Ahmed Mushfiq, 2008. "Does rising income increase or decrease damage risk from natural disasters?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 788-802, May.
    29. Henderson, J. Vernon & Roberts, Mark & Storeygard, Adam, 2013. "Is urbanization in Sub-Saharan Africa different ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6481, The World Bank.
    30. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
    31. Ginger Turner & Farah Said & Uzma Afzal, 2014. "Microinsurance Demand After a Rare Flood Event: Evidence From a Field Experiment in Pakistan," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 39(2), pages 201-223, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lopez-Uribe, Maria del Pilar & Castells-Quintana, David & McDermott, Thomas K. J., 2017. "Geography, institutions and development: a review ofthe long-run impacts of climate change," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 65147, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Jason Barr & Jeffrey P. Cohen & Eon Kim, 2017. "Storm Surges, Informational Shocks, and the Price of Urban Real Estate:An Application to the Case of Hurricane Sandy," Working Papers Rutgers University, Newark 2017-002, Department of Economics, Rutgers University, Newark.
    3. repec:oup:indcch:v:27:y:2018:i:1:p:15-47. is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Ilan Noy, 2017. "To Leave or Not to Leave? Climate Change, Exit, and Voice on a Pacific Island," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 63(4), pages 403-420.
    5. Chalal, Moulay Larbi & Benachir, Medjdoub & White, Michael & Shrahily, Raid, 2016. "Energy planning and forecasting approaches for supporting physical improvement strategies in the building sector: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 761-776.
    6. Areendam Chanda & Dachao Ruan, 2017. "Early Urbanization and the Persistence of Regional Disparities within Countries," Departmental Working Papers 2017-01, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University.
    7. Jing Xiao & Ron Boschma & Martin Andersson, 2018. "Resilience in the European Union: the effect of the 2008 crisis on the ability of regions in Europe to develop new industrial specializations," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(1), pages 15-47.
    8. repec:eee:appene:v:204:y:2017:i:c:p:1363-1374 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:5:p:855-:d:99161 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    urbanization; flooding; climate change; urban recovery;

    JEL classification:

    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1398. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/series.asp?prog=CEP .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.