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The Geography of Development: Evaluating Migration Restrictions and Coastal Flooding

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  • Desmet, Klaus
  • Nagy, David Krisztián
  • Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban

Abstract

We study the relationship between geography and growth. To do so, we first develop a dynamic spatial growth theory with realistic geography. We characterize the model and its balanced growth path and propose a methodology to analyze equilibria with different levels of migration frictions. We bring the model to the data for the whole world economy at a 1º times 1º geographic resolution. We then use the model to quantify the gains from relaxing migration restrictions as well as to describe the evolution of the distribution of economic activity in the different migration scenarios. Our results indicate that fully liberalizing migration would increase welfare more than three-fold and would significantly affect the evolution of particular regions in the world. We then use the model to study the effect of a spatial shock. We focus on the example of a rise in the sea level and find that coastal flooding can have an important impact on welfare by changing the geographic-dynamic path of the world economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Desmet, Klaus & Nagy, David Krisztián & Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban, 2015. "The Geography of Development: Evaluating Migration Restrictions and Coastal Flooding," CEPR Discussion Papers 10544, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10544
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    Cited by:

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    2. Moreno-Cruz, Juan & Taylor, M. Scott, 2017. "An energy-centric theory of agglomeration," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 153-172.
    3. Ravikumar, B. & Santacreu, Ana Maria & Sposi, Michael, 2019. "Capital accumulation and dynamic gains from trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 93-110.
    4. Kahn, Matthew E. & Zhao, Daxuan, 2018. "The impact of climate change skepticism on adaptation in a market economy," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 251-262.
    5. Els BEKEART & Ilse RUYSSEN & Sara SALOMONE, 2021. "Domestic and International Migration Intentions in Response to Environmental Stress: A Global Cross-country Analysis," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 383-436, September.
    6. Bunten, Devin & Kahn, Matthew E., 2017. "Optimal real estate capital durability and localized climate change disaster risk," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-7.
    7. Brülhart, Marius & Carrère, Céline & Robert-Nicoud, Frédéric, 2018. "Trade and towns: Heterogeneous adjustment to a border shock," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 162-175.
    8. Desmet, Klaus & Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban, 2015. "On the spatial economic impact of global warming," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 16-37.
    9. Ilan Noy, 2017. "To Leave or Not to Leave? Climate Change, Exit, and Voice on a Pacific Island," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 63(4), pages 403-420.
    10. Sebastian Galiani & Gustavo Torrens, 2021. "The political economy of trade and international labour mobility," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(4), pages 1737-1781, November.
    11. Adriana Kocornik-Mina & Thomas K. J. McDermott & Guy Michaels & Ferdinand Rauch, 2020. "Flooded Cities," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 35-66, April.
    12. Treb Allen & Cauê de Castro Dobbin & Melanie Morten, 2018. "Border Walls," NBER Working Papers 25267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Solomon Hsiang & Paulina Oliva & Reed Walker, 2019. "The Distribution of Environmental Damages," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 13(1), pages 83-103.
    14. Marco Delogu & Frédéric Docquier & Joël Machado, 2018. "Globalizing labor and the world economy: the role of human capital," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 223-258, June.
    15. Chen, Ying & Henderson, J. Vernon & Cai, Wei, 2017. "Political favoritism in China’s capital markets and its effect on city sizes," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 69-87.
    16. Elisa Giannone, 2017. "Skill-Biased Technical Change and Regional Convergence," 2017 Meeting Papers 190, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Dave Donaldson & Adam Storeygard, 2016. "The View from Above: Applications of Satellite Data in Economics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(4), pages 171-198, Fall.
    18. Ortega, Francesc & Taspinar, Süleyman, 2016. "Rising Sea Levels and Sinking Property Values: The Effects of Hurricane Sandy on New York's Housing Market," IZA Discussion Papers 10374, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Takashi Akamatsu & Tomoya Mori & Yuki Takayama, 2015. "Agglomerations in a multi-region economy: Poly-centric versus mono-centric patterns," KIER Working Papers 929, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    20. Michael Sposi & Ana Maria Santacreu & B Ravikumar, 2016. "Capital Accumulation and Welfare Gains from Trade," 2016 Meeting Papers 1637, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    21. Nathaniel Baum-Snow & Loren Brandt & J. Vernon Henderson & Matthew A. Turner & Qinghua Zhang, 2016. "Highways, Market Access and Urban Growth in China," SERC Discussion Papers 0200, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    22. Marcel Henkel, Eunjee Kwon, Pierre Magontier, 2022. "The Unintended Consequences of Post-Disaster Policies for Spatial Sorting," Diskussionsschriften credresearchpaper37, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft - CRED.
    23. Fei, Xuan, 2022. "Trade liberalization and structural changes: Prefecture-level evidence from China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 103-126.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    coastal flooding; development; gains from mobility; geography; growth; migration; spatial economics; trade; world economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

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