IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/11010.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Flooded Cities

Author

Listed:
  • Kocornik-Mina, Adriana
  • McDermott, Thomas K.J.
  • Michaels, Guy
  • Rauch, Ferdinand

Abstract

Does economic activity relocate away from areas that are at high risk of recurring shocks? We examine this question in the context of floods, which are among the costliest and most common natural disasters. Over the past thirty years, floods worldwide killed more than 500,000 people and displaced over 650,000,000 people. This paper analyzes the effect of large scale floods, which displaced at least 100,000 people each, in over 1,800 cities in 40 countries, from 2003-2008. We conduct our analysis using spatially detailed inundation maps and night lights data spanning the globe's urban areas. We find that low elevation areas are about 3-4 times more likely to be hit by large floods than other areas, and yet they concentrate more economic activity per square kilometer. When cities are hit by large floods, the low elevation areas also sustain more damage, but like the rest of the flooded cities they recover rapidly, and economic activity does not move to safer areas. Only in more recently populated urban areas, flooded areas show a larger and more persistent decline in economic activity. Our findings have important policy implications for aid, development and urban planning in a world with rising urbanization and sea levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Kocornik-Mina, Adriana & McDermott, Thomas K.J. & Michaels, Guy & Rauch, Ferdinand, 2015. "Flooded Cities," CEPR Discussion Papers 11010, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=11010
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lisa Cameron & Manisha Shah, 2015. "Risk-Taking Behavior in the Wake of Natural Disasters," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(2), pages 484-515.
    2. Leah Platt Boustan & Matthew E. Kahn & Paul W. Rhode, 2012. "Moving to Higher Ground: Migration Response to Natural Disasters in the Early Twentieth Century," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 238-244, May.
    3. Healy, Andrew & Malhotra, Neil, 2009. "Myopic Voters and Natural Disaster Policy," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 103(3), pages 387-406, August.
    4. Barrios, Salvador & Bertinelli, Luisito & Strobl, Eric, 2006. "Climatic change and rural-urban migration: The case of sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 357-371, November.
    5. Richard Hornbeck & Daniel Keniston, 2017. "Creative Destruction: Barriers to Urban Growth and the Great Boston Fire of 1872," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(6), pages 1365-1398, June.
    6. Ferdinand Rauch & Guy Michaels, 2013. "Resetting the Urban Network: 117-2012," Economics Series Working Papers 684, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    7. Coffman, Makena & Noy, Ilan, 2012. "Hurricane Iniki: measuring the long-term economic impact of a natural disaster using synthetic control," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(2), pages 187-205, April.
    8. Hoyt Bleakley & Jeffrey Lin, 2012. "Portage and Path Dependence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 127(2), pages 587-644.
    9. Charlotta Mellander & José Lobo & Kevin Stolarick & Zara Matheson, 2015. "Night-Time Light Data: A Good Proxy Measure for Economic Activity?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(10), pages 1-18, October.
    10. Adam Storeygard, 2016. "Farther on down the Road: Transport Costs, Trade and Urban Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 83(3), pages 1263-1295.
    11. Tilottama Ghosh & Sharolyn J. Anderson & Christopher D. Elvidge & Paul C. Sutton, 2013. "Using Nighttime Satellite Imagery as a Proxy Measure of Human Well-Being," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(12), pages 1-32, November.
    12. Stelios Michalopoulos & Elias Papaioannou, 2013. "Pre‐Colonial Ethnic Institutions and Contemporary African Development," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(1), pages 113-152, January.
    13. Tatyana Deryugina & Laura Kawano & Steven Levitt, 2018. "The Economic Impact of Hurricane Katrina on Its Victims: Evidence from Individual Tax Returns," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 202-233, April.
    14. Fankhauser, Samuel & McDermott, Thomas K. J., 2014. "Understanding the adaptation deficit: why are poor countries more vulnerable to climate events than rich countries?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 57620, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Tatyana Deryugina & Barrett Kirwan, 2018. "Does The Samaritan'S Dilemma Matter? Evidence From U.S. Agriculture," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 983-1006, April.
    16. Elliott, Robert J.R. & Strobl, Eric & Sun, Puyang, 2015. "The local impact of typhoons on economic activity in China: A view from outer space," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 50-66.
    17. Eckel, Catherine C. & El-Gamal, Mahmoud A. & Wilson, Rick K., 2009. "Risk loving after the storm: A Bayesian-Network study of Hurricane Katrina evacuees," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 110-124, February.
    18. Klaus Desmet & Dávid Krisztián Nagy & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2015. "The Geography of Development: Evaluating Migration Restrictions and Coastal Flooding," NBER Working Papers 21087, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Dave Donaldson & Adam Storeygard, 2016. "The View from Above: Applications of Satellite Data in Economics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(4), pages 171-198, Fall.
    20. Kahn, Matthew E. & Walsh, Randall, 2015. "Cities and the Environment," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 405-465, Elsevier.
    21. Deryugina, Tatyana, 2011. "The Role of Transfer Payments in Mitigating Shocks: Evidence From the Impact of Hurricanes," MPRA Paper 53307, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Aug 2013.
    22. Emek Basker & Javier Miranda, 2014. "Taken by Storm: Business Financing, Survival, and Contagion in the Aftermath of Hurricane Katrina," Working Papers 1406, Department of Economics, University of Missouri, revised 23 Oct 2014.
    23. Justin Gallagher, 2014. "Learning about an Infrequent Event: Evidence from Flood Insurance Take-Up in the United States," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(3), pages 206-233, July.
    24. Douglas Gollin & Remi Jedwab & Dietrich Vollrath, 2013. "Urbanization with and without Structural Transformation," 2013 Meeting Papers 344, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    25. Andrea Leiter & Harald Oberhofer & Paul Raschky, 2009. "Creative Disasters? Flooding Effects on Capital, Labour and Productivity Within European Firms," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 43(3), pages 333-350, July.
    26. J. Vernon Henderson & Adam Storeygard & David N. Weil, 2012. "Measuring Economic Growth from Outer Space," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 994-1028, April.
    27. Benjamin Marx & Thomas Stoker & Tavneet Suri, 2013. "The Economics of Slums in the Developing World," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(4), pages 187-210, Fall.
    28. Jedwab,Remi Camille & Christiaensen,Luc & Gindelsky,Marina, 2015. "Demography, urbanization and development : rural push, urban pull and... urban push ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7333, The World Bank.
    29. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    30. Glaeser Edward L, 2005. "Should the Government Rebuild New Orleans, Or Just Give Residents Checks?," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 2(4), pages 1-7, September.
    31. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    32. Susan Hanson & Robert Nicholls & N. Ranger & S. Hallegatte & J. Corfee-Morlot & C. Herweijer & J. Chateau, 2011. "A global ranking of port cities with high exposure to climate extremes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 89-111, January.
    33. Christopher D. Elvidge & Daniel Ziskin & Kimberly E. Baugh & Benjamin T. Tuttle & Tilottama Ghosh & Dee W. Pack & Edward H. Erwin & Mikhail Zhizhin, 2009. "A Fifteen Year Record of Global Natural Gas Flaring Derived from Satellite Data," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(3), pages 1-28, August.
    34. Kellenberg, Derek K. & Mobarak, Ahmed Mushfiq, 2008. "Does rising income increase or decrease damage risk from natural disasters?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 788-802, May.
    35. Henderson, J. Vernon & Roberts, Mark & Storeygard, Adam, 2013. "Is urbanization in Sub-Saharan Africa different ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6481, The World Bank.
    36. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
    37. Ginger Turner & Farah Said & Uzma Afzal, 2014. "Microinsurance Demand After a Rare Flood Event: Evidence From a Field Experiment in Pakistan," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 39(2), pages 201-223, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lopez-Uribe, Maria del Pilar & Castells-Quintana, David & McDermott, Thomas K. J., 2017. "Geography, institutions and development: a review ofthe long-run impacts of climate change," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 65147, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Brian Walsh & Stéphane Hallegatte, 2020. "Measuring Natural Risks in the Philippines: Socioeconomic Resilience and Wellbeing Losses," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 249-293, July.
    3. Johar, Meliyanni & Johnston, David W. & Shields, Michael A. & Siminski, Peter & Stavrunova, Olena, 2020. "The Economic Impacts of Direct Natural Disaster Exposure," IZA Discussion Papers 13616, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Johanna Choumert-Nkolo & Anaïs Lamour & Pascale Phélinas, 2020. "The economics of volcanoes," Working Papers hal-02556468, HAL.
    5. Ilan Noy, 2017. "To Leave or Not to Leave? Climate Change, Exit, and Voice on a Pacific Island," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 63(4), pages 403-420.
    6. Gibson, John & Olivia, Susan & Boe-Gibson, Geua & Li, Chao, 2021. "Which night lights data should we use in economics, and where?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    7. Jedwab,Remi Camille & Pereira,Daniel & Roberts,Mark, 2019. "Cities of Workers, Children, or Seniors? Age Structure and Economic Growth in a Global Cross-Section of Cities," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9040, The World Bank.
    8. Jing Xiao & Ron Boschma & Martin Andersson, 2018. "Resilience in the European Union: the effect of the 2008 crisis on the ability of regions in Europe to develop new industrial specializations," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(1), pages 15-47.
    9. Chen, Yibo & Tan, Hongwei, 2017. "Short-term prediction of electric demand in building sector via hybrid support vector regression," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 1363-1374.
    10. Yizhou Wu & Peilei Fan & Bo Li & Zutao Ouyang & Yong Liu & Heyuan You, 2017. "The Effectiveness of Planning Control on Urban Growth: Evidence from Hangzhou, China," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(5), pages 1-24, May.
    11. Sally Owen & Ilan Noy & Jacob Pástor-Paz & David Fleming, 2019. "EQC and extreme weather events (part 2): Measuring the impact of insurance on New Zealand landslip, storm and flood recovery using nightlights," Working Papers 19_19, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    12. John Gibson & Susan Olivia & Geua Boe‐Gibson, 2020. "Night Lights In Economics: Sources And Uses," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(5), pages 955-980, December.
    13. Indaco, Agustín & Ortega, Francesc & Taspinar, Süleyman, 2019. "Hurricanes, Flood Risk and the Economic Adaptation of Businesses," IZA Discussion Papers 12474, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Castells-Quintana, David & del Pilar Lopez-Uribe, Maria & McDermott, Thomas K.J., 2018. "A review of adaptation to climate change through a development economics lens," Working Papers 309605, National University of Ireland, Galway, Socio-Economic Marine Research Unit.
    15. Jason Barr & Jeffrey P. Cohen & Eon Kim, 2017. "Storm Surges, Informational Shocks, and the Price of Urban Real Estate:An Application to the Case of Hurricane Sandy," Working Papers Rutgers University, Newark 2017-002, Department of Economics, Rutgers University, Newark.
    16. McDermott, T.K.J. & Surminski, S., 2018. "Normative interpretations of climate risk assessment and how it affects local decision making – a study at the city scale in Cork, Ireland," Working Papers 309607, National University of Ireland, Galway, Socio-Economic Marine Research Unit.
    17. Melissa Chow & Jordan Stanley, 2020. "A Shore Thing: Post-Hurricane Outcomes for Businesses in Coastal Areas," Working Papers 20-27, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    18. John Gibson & Susan Olivia & Geua Boe-Gibson, 2019. "A Test of DMPS and VIIRS Night Lights Data for Estimating GDP and Spatial Inequality for Rural and Urban Areas," Working Papers in Economics 19/11, University of Waikato.
    19. Chalal, Moulay Larbi & Benachir, Medjdoub & White, Michael & Shrahily, Raid, 2016. "Energy planning and forecasting approaches for supporting physical improvement strategies in the building sector: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 761-776.
    20. Ortega, Francesc & Taṣpınar, Süleyman, 2018. "Rising sea levels and sinking property values: Hurricane Sandy and New York’s housing market," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 81-100.
    21. Areendam Chanda & Dachao Ruan, 2017. "Early Urbanization and the Persistence of Regional Disparities within Countries," Departmental Working Papers 2017-01, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University.
    22. Thomas Steinwachs, 2019. "Eine Frage der Geographie: Räumliche Dimensionen von Handel, Migration und Wachstum," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 81.
    23. Indaco, Agustín, 2020. "From twitter to GDP: Estimating economic activity from social media," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Gröschl, Jasmin & Sanders, Mark & Schippers, Vincent & Steinwachs, Thomas, 2018. "Shedding Light on the Spatial Diffusion of Disasters," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181556, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Thomas Steinwachs, 2019. "Eine Frage der Geographie: Räumliche Dimensionen von Handel, Migration und Wachstum," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 81.
    3. Bluhm, Richard & Krause, Melanie, 2018. "Top Lights: Bright cities and their contribution to economic development," MERIT Working Papers 2018-041, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    4. Meri Davlasheridze & Pinar C. Geylani, 2017. "Small Business vulnerability to floods and the effects of disaster loans," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 865-888, December.
    5. Bluhm, Richard & Krause, Melanie, 2018. "Top Lights: Bright cities and their contribution to economic development," MERIT Working Papers 2018-041, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    6. Juan Jose Miranda & Oscar A. Ishizawa & Hongrui Zhang, 2020. "Understanding the Impact Dynamics of Windstorms on Short-Term Economic Activity from Night Lights in Central America," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 657-698, October.
    7. Russ, Jason, 2020. "Water runoff and economic activity: The impact of water supply shocks on growth," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    8. Henderson, J. Vernon & Storeygard, Adam & Deichmann, Uwe, 2017. "Has climate change driven urbanization in Africa?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 60-82.
    9. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    10. Juergen Bitzer & Erkan Goeren, 2018. "Foreign Aid and Subnational Development: A Grid Cell Analysis," Working Papers V-407-18, University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2018.
    11. Prakash, Nishith & Rockmore, Marc & Uppal, Yogesh, 2019. "Do criminally accused politicians affect economic outcomes? Evidence from India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    12. Lee, Yong Suk, 2018. "International isolation and regional inequality: Evidence from sanctions on North Korea," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 34-51.
    13. Donna Feir & Rob Gillezeau & Maggie E. C. Jones, 2019. "The Slaughter of the Bison and Reversal of Fortunes on the Great Plains," Center for Indian Country Development series 1-2019, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    14. Johar, Meliyanni & Johnston, David W. & Shields, Michael A. & Siminski, Peter & Stavrunova, Olena, 2020. "The Economic Impacts of Direct Natural Disaster Exposure," IZA Discussion Papers 13616, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Michael Berlemann & Max Steinhardt & Jascha Tutt, 2015. "Do Natural Disasters Stimulate Individual Saving? Evidence from a Natural Experiment in a Highly Developed Country," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 763, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    16. Pierre Magontier, 2020. "Does media coverage affect governments’ preparation for natural disasters?," Diskussionsschriften credresearchpaper29, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft - CRED.
    17. Ortega, Francesc & Taṣpınar, Süleyman, 2018. "Rising sea levels and sinking property values: Hurricane Sandy and New York’s housing market," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 81-100.
    18. Justin Gallagher & Daniel Hartley, 2017. "Household Finance after a Natural Disaster: The Case of Hurricane Katrina," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 199-228, August.
    19. Nguyen, Cuong & Noy, Ilan, 2018. "Measuring the impact of insurance on urban recovery with light: The 2011 New Zealand earthquake," Working Paper Series 6955, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    20. Castells-Quintana, David & Lopez-Uribe, Maria del Pilar & McDermott, Thomas K.J., 2018. "Adaptation to climate change: A review through a development economics lens," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 183-196.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate change; flooding; urban recovery; urbanization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11010. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.