The Unintended Consequences of Post-Disaster Policies for Spatial Sorting

We document that U.S. hurricanes striking close to Election Day trigger larger public spending responses and sustained population inflows than comparable hurricanes occurring between elections. Exploiting quasi-random variation in hurricane timing, we show that electoral incentives shape post- disaster policy with lasting spatial consequences. A quantitative spatial equilibrium model implies that eliminating these electoral timing distortions would raise aggregate welfare by 0.025%, but the aggregate gain masks an 18:1 asymmetry in per-capita stakes between losers and gainers. This distributional asymmetry rationalizes the persistence of these electoral distortions.