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Mortgage Finance and Climate Change: Securitization Dynamics in the Aftermath of Natural Disasters


  • Amine Ouazad
  • Matthew E. Kahn


Using the government-sponsored enterprises’ sharp securitization rules, this paper provides evidence that, in the aftermath of natural disasters, lenders are more likely to approve mortgages that can be securitized, thereby transferring climate risk. The identification strategy uses the GSEs’ time-varying conforming loan limits at which mortgages bunch. Natural disasters increase bunching, suggesting an increased option value of securitization. The increase is lower where flood insurance is required. A model identified using indirect inference simulates increasing disaster risk without GSEs. Mortgage credit supply would decline in flood zones and lenders would have a greater incentive to screen mortgages.

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  • Amine Ouazad & Matthew E. Kahn, 2019. "Mortgage Finance and Climate Change: Securitization Dynamics in the Aftermath of Natural Disasters," NBER Working Papers 26322, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26322
    Note: AP EEE POL

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    Blog mentions

    As found by, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. An October Update on the 21st Century Cities Initiative at Johns Hopkins
      by Matthew E. Kahn in Environmental and Urban Economics on 2019-10-06 14:16:00
    2. In the Year 2030, How Will Applied Microeconomists Study the Consequences of the 2020 COVID Shock?
      by Matthew E. Kahn in Environmental and Urban Economics on 2020-12-24 15:02:00
    3. How Does Applied Microeconomic Research Accelerate Climate Change Adaptation?
      by Matthew E. Kahn in Environmental and Urban Economics on 2021-05-13 14:39:00


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    1. Kendra Marcoux & Katherine R. H. Wagner, 2023. "Fifty Years of U.S. Natural Disaster Insurance Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 10431, CESifo.
    2. Andreas Fuster & David Lucca & James Vickery, 2023. "Mortgage-backed securities," Chapters, in: Refet S. Gürkaynak & Jonathan H. Wright (ed.), Research Handbook of Financial Markets, chapter 15, pages 331-357, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Shouwei Li & Xin Wu, 2023. "How does climate risk affect bank loan supply? Empirical evidence from China," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2169-2204, August.
    4. Le, Trung H. & Pham, Linh & Do, Hung X., 2023. "Price risk transmissions in the water-energy-food nexus: Impacts of climate risks and portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    5. Chen, Zhenzhu & Li, Li & Tang, Yao, 2024. "Weather, credit, and economic fluctuations: Evidence from China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 406-422.
    6. Justin Contat & Caroline Hopkins & Luis Mejia & Matthew Suandi, 2023. "When Climate Meets Real Estate: A Survey of the Literature," FHFA Staff Working Papers 23-05, Federal Housing Finance Agency.
    7. Kristian S. Blickle & Evan Perry & João A. C. Santos, 2024. "Do Mortgage Lenders Respond to Flood Risk?," Staff Reports 1101, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    8. Mete Feridun & Hasan Güngör, 2020. "Climate-Related Prudential Risks in the Banking Sector: A Review of the Emerging Regulatory and Supervisory Practices," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-20, July.
    9. Amine Ouazad & Matthew E. Kahn, 2023. "Mortgage Securitization Dynamics in the Aftermath of Natural Disasters: A Reply," Papers 2305.07179,
    10. Müller, Isabella & Nguyen, Huyen & Nguyen, Trang, 2024. "Carbon transition risk and corporate loan securitization," IWH Discussion Papers 22/2022, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), revised 2024.
    11. Blanco, Ivan & Martin-Flores, Jose M. & Remesal, Alvaro, 2024. "Climate shocks, institutional investors, and the information content of stock prices," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    12. Alexandra Lefevre & Agnes Tourin, 2023. "Incorporating Climate Risk into Credit Risk Modeling: An Application in Housing Finance," FinTech, MDPI, vol. 2(3), pages 1-27, September.
    13. Akter, Maimuna & Cumming, Douglas & Ji, Shan, 2023. "Natural disasters and market manipulation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    14. Petkov, Ivan & Ortega, Francesc, 2024. "Flood Risk and Insurance Take-up in the Flood Zone and Its Periphery," IZA Discussion Papers 16922, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Avis Devine & Andrew Sanderford & Chongyu Wang, 2024. "Sustainability and Private Equity Real Estate Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 68(2), pages 161-187, February.
    16. Laura Bakkensen & Toan Phan & Russell Wong, 2023. "Leveraging the Disagreement on Climate Change: Theory and Evidence," Working Paper 23-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    17. Xu, Minhong & Xu, Yilan, 2023. "Do non-damaging earthquakes shake mortgage lenders' risk perception?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    18. Kristian S. Blickle & João A. C. Santos, 2022. "Unintended Consequences of "Mandatory" Flood Insurance," Staff Reports 1012, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    19. Duan, Tinghua & Li, Frank Weikai, 2024. "Climate change concerns and mortgage lending," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    20. Liao, Yanjun (Penny) & Mulder, Philip, 2021. "What's at Stake? Understanding the Role of Home Equity in Flood Insurance Demand," RFF Working Paper Series 21-25, Resources for the Future.
    21. Marcel Henkel, Eunjee Kwon, Pierre Magontier, 2022. "The Unintended Consequences of Post-Disaster Policies for Spatial Sorting," Diskussionsschriften credresearchpaper37, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft - CRED.
    22. Graff Zivin, Joshua & Liao, Yanjun & Panassié, Yann, 2023. "How hurricanes sweep up housing markets: Evidence from Florida," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    23. Michael C. S. Wong & Ho Ming Ho, 2023. "A Framework for Integrating Extreme Weather Risk, Probability of Default, and Loss Given Default for Residential Mortgage Loans," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1, August.
    24. Guo, Wei & Liao, Yanjun (Penny) & Miao, Qing, 2023. "Managed Retreat and Flood Recovery: The Local Economic Impacts of a Buyout and Acquisition Program," RFF Working Paper Series 23-44, Resources for the Future.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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