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At the Very Edge of a Storm: The Impact of a Distant Cyclone on Atoll Islands

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  • Tauisi Taupo
  • Ilan Noy

Abstract

The intensity of cyclones in the Pacific is predicted to increase and sea levels are predicted to rise, so an atoll nation like Tuvalu can serve as the ‘canary in the mine’ pointing to the new risks that are emerging because of climatic change. Based on a household survey we conducted in Tuvalu, we quantify the impacts of Tropical Cyclone Pam (March 2015) on households, and the determinants of these impacts in terms of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and responsiveness. Households experienced significant damage due to the storm surge caused by the cyclone, even if the cyclone itself passed very far away (about a 1000km). This risk of distant cyclones has been overlooked in the literature, and ignoring it leads to significant under-estimation of the disaster risk facing low-lying atoll islands. Lastly, we constructed hypothetical policy scenarios, and calculated the estimated loss and damage they would have been associated with – a first step in building careful assessments of the feasibility of various disaster risk reduction policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Tauisi Taupo & Ilan Noy, 2016. "At the Very Edge of a Storm: The Impact of a Distant Cyclone on Atoll Islands," CESifo Working Paper Series 6220, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6220
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Eduardo Cavallo & Ilan Noy, 2009. "The Economics of Natural Disasters: A Survey," Research Department Publications 4649, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
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    Cited by:

    1. Anil Deo & Savin S. Chand & R. Duncan McIntosh & Bipen Prakash & Neil J. Holbrook & Andrew Magee & Alick Haruhiru & Philip Malsale, 2022. "Severe tropical cyclones over southwest Pacific Islands: economic impacts and implications for disaster risk management," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 1-23, June.
    2. Ilan Noy & Shunsuke Managi & Stephane Hallegatte, 2018. "Economics of Disasters and Climate Change – The Journal’s First Year," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-3, April.
    3. John Miller & Guilherme Vieira Silva & Darrell Strauss, 2023. "Divergence of tropical cyclone hazard based on wind-weighted track distributions in the Coral Sea, over 50 years," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(2), pages 2591-2617, March.
    4. Ilan Noy, 2017. "To Leave or Not to Leave? Climate Change, Exit, and Voice on a Pacific Island," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 63(4), pages 403-420.
    5. Ilan Noy, 2017. "To Leave or Not to Leave? Climate Change, Exit, and Voice on a Pacific Island," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 63(4), pages 403-420.

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    Keywords

    cyclone; Tuvalu; impact;
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