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The measurement of disaster risk: An example from tropical cyclones in the Philippines

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  • Yonson, Rio
  • Gaillard, J. C.
  • Noy, Ilan

Abstract

What shapes people’s disaster risk exposure? Using a sub-national (provincial) panel econometric and deductive approach we answer this question by focussing on tropical cyclones, and using the Philippines as a case study for our measurement approach. We construct a new provincial level panel dataset, and use panel estimation methods to assess the influence of socioeconomic (vulnerability), geographic, demographic, topographic (exposure), and meteorological (hazard) characteristics on the resulting fatalities and affected persons from recent tropical cyclones. We find strong evidence that socioeconomic development reduces people’s vulnerability and loss of human lives. Further, good local governance is associated with fewer fatalities. Rapid and unplanned urbanization generates vulnerabilities and increases harm. Exposure, including topography, and hazard strength are likewise important determinants. However, disaster impacts on people appear to be influenced much more by vulnerability and exposure, than by the hazard itself. We quantify this difference in order to contribute to policy planning at national and sub-national scales.

Suggested Citation

  • Yonson, Rio & Gaillard, J. C. & Noy, Ilan, 2016. "The measurement of disaster risk: An example from tropical cyclones in the Philippines," Working Paper Series 19395, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:vuw:vuwecf:19395
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Noy, Ilan, 2009. "The macroeconomic consequences of disasters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 221-231, March.
    2. Axel Creach & Sophie Pardo & Patrice Guillotreau & Denis Mercier, 2015. "The use of a micro-scale index to identify potential death risk areas due to coastal flood surges: lessons from Storm Xynthia on the French Atlantic coast," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(3), pages 1679-1710, July.
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    6. Bayudan-Dacuycuy, Connie & Lim, Joseph Anthony, 2013. "Family Size, Household Shocks and Chronic and Transient Poverty in the Philippine Households," MPRA Paper 64739, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Noy, Ilan & Yonson, Rio, 2016. "A survey of the theory and measurement of economic vulnerability and resilience to natural hazards," Working Paper Series 4978, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    8. Susan L. Cutter & Bryan J. Boruff & W. Lynn Shirley, 2003. "Social Vulnerability to Environmental Hazards," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 84(2), pages 242-261, June.
    9. Cavallo, Eduardo & Noy, Ilan, 2011. "Natural Disasters and the Economy — A Survey," International Review of Environmental and Resource Economics, now publishers, vol. 5(1), pages 63-102, May.
    10. Matthew E. Kahn, 2005. "The Death Toll from Natural Disasters: The Role of Income, Geography, and Institutions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 271-284, May.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Brian Walsh & Stéphane Hallegatte, 2020. "Measuring Natural Risks in the Philippines: Socioeconomic Resilience and Wellbeing Losses," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 249-293, July.
    4. Shuxian Liu & Yang Liu & Zhigang Chu & Kun Yang & Guanlan Wang & Lisheng Zhang & Yuanda Zhang, 2023. "Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Disaster Loss Using Machine Learning Algorithms with an eXplainable Artificial Intelligence Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-17, August.
    5. Ruiling Sun & Ge Gao & Zaiwu Gong & Jie Wu, 2020. "A review of risk analysis methods for natural disasters," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 100(2), pages 571-593, January.
    6. Richard S. J. Tol, 2021. "The Economic Impact of Climate in the Long Run," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anil Markandya & Dirk Rübbelke (ed.), CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT, chapter 1, pages 3-36, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Jeroen Klomp & John Sseruyange, 2021. "Earthquakes and Economic Outcomes: Does Central Bank Independence Matter?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 335-359, April.
    8. Richard S. J. Tol, 2022. "State capacity and vulnerability to natural disasters," Chapters, in: Mark Skidmore (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Disasters, chapter 20, pages 434-457, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Ilan Noy & Rio Yonson, 2018. "Economic Vulnerability and Resilience to Natural Hazards: A Survey of Concepts and Measurements," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-16, August.
    10. Cavallo, Eduardo A. & Gómez, Santiago & Noy, Ilan & Strobl, Eric, 2024. "Climate Change, Hurricanes, and Sovereign Debt in the Caribbean Basin," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13351, Inter-American Development Bank.
    11. Klomp, Jeroen, 2019. "Does government ideology shake or shape the public finances? Empirical evidence of disaster assistance," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 118-127.
    12. Ruiling Sun & Zaiwu Gong & Weiwei Guo & Ashfaq Ahmad Shah & Jie Wu & Haiying Xu, 2022. "Flood disaster risk assessment of and countermeasures toward Yangtze River Delta by considering index interaction," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(1), pages 475-500, May.
    13. Karim, Azreen & Noy, Ilan, 2020. "Risk, poverty or politics? The determinants of subnational public spending allocation for adaptive disaster risk reduction in Bangladesh," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).

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