Natural Disasters in Japan and Tourism in Developing Countries: The Case of the Pacific Islands

During the past three years, natural disasters have struck Japan in both increasing frequency and magnitudes. In the past, Japan was able to recover quickly from disasters being a developed country. However, new data show that Japan has not substantially recovered from the recent events, and in the case Japan makes a quick recovery, the same may not apply to nearby developing countries that rely on a steady influx of Japanese tourists. This paper examines the impact of natural disasters in Japan on the flow of tourists to developing countries in the Pacific Islands. Using a panel dataset on natural disasters in Japan from the Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, we first attempt to quantify impacts of these disasters on aggregate numbers of arrivals per capita to these islands controlling for fixed effects and time trends. We then analyze differences in aggregate arrival rates between islands which may be caused by a combination of the private and public sector’s efforts to redirect capital to more efficient uses and risk reduction through resource diversification.