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A macro-scale flood risk model for Jamaica with impact of climate variability

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  • Christopher Burgess
  • Michael Taylor
  • Tannecia Stephenson
  • Arpita Mandal
  • Leiska Powell

Abstract

Floods account for more than half of the global hydrometeorological risks. Severe floods cause significant economic shocks and loss of lives, particularly for developing countries such as Jamaica. There is need for more information on the present and projected flood risks to justify macro-scale planning for climate change adaptation and facilitate the decision-making processes. In this study, a catalogue of 198 flood events occurring between 1678 and 2010 is compiled for Jamaica and used to examine the climatology, occurrence, trends, causes and duration of the island’s severe events. The annual flood risk is estimated to be a loss of life rate of 4 persons and estimated annual damage of USD96.3 million per annum in 2010 values and approximately 0.84 % of GDP per annum. Macro-scale models for flood risks (deaths and damages) are also developed using data from the flood catalogue and maximum precipitation at the town and parish level. The models examine the relationship between flood risks (death and damages) and extreme rainfall depths and intensities. Future climate risks of loss of lives and damages are predicted to increase 11 and 9 %, respectively, to 4.4 persons and USD105.2 million per annum. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher Burgess & Michael Taylor & Tannecia Stephenson & Arpita Mandal & Leiska Powell, 2015. "A macro-scale flood risk model for Jamaica with impact of climate variability," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(1), pages 231-256, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:78:y:2015:i:1:p:231-256
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-1712-z
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    Cited by:

    1. Gianna Ida Festa & Luigi Guerriero & Mariano Focareta & Giuseppe Meoli & Silvana Revellino & Francesco Maria Guadagno & Paola Revellino, 2022. "Calculating Economic Flood Damage through Microscale Risk Maps and Data Generalization: A Pilot Study in Southern Italy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-21, May.
    2. H. Glas & M. Jonckheere & A. Mandal & S. James-Williamson & P. Maeyer & G. Deruyter, 2017. "A GIS-based tool for flood damage assessment and delineation of a methodology for future risk assessment: case study for Annotto Bay, Jamaica," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(3), pages 1867-1891, September.

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