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Advancing Sustainability and Resilience in Vulnerable Rural and Coastal Communities Facing Environmental Change with a Regionally Focused Composite Mapping Framework

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas O’Shea

    (School of Science Engineering and The Environment, University of Salford, Salford M5 4WT, UK)

  • Dónall Cross

    (Department of Life Sciences, Aberystwyth University, Aberystwyth SY23 3FL, UK)

  • Mark G. Macklin

    (College of Health and Science, University of Lincoln, Lincoln LN6 7TS, UK
    Innovative River Solutions, Institute of Agriculture and Environment, Massey University, Auckland 4442, New Zealand
    Centre for the Study of the Inland, La Trobe University, Melbourne 3086, Australia)

  • Chris Thomas

    (College of Health and Science, University of Lincoln, Lincoln LN6 7TS, UK
    Multidisciplinary Research Centre, University of Namibia, Windhoek 10026, Namibia)

Abstract

Rural and coastal communities in areas of socio-economic deprivation face increasing exposure to compound climate-related hazards, including flooding, erosion and extreme heat. Effective adaptation planning in these contexts requires approaches that integrate physical hazard modelling with measures of social vulnerability in a transparent and reproducible way. This study develops and applies the Adaptive and Resilient Rural-Coastal Communities in Lincolnshire (ARRCC-L) framework, a sequential process combining data collation, two-dimensional hydraulic simulation using LISFLOOD-FP, and composite vulnerability mapping. The framework is versioned and protocolised to support replication, and is applied to Lincolnshire, UK, integrating UKCP18 climate projections, high-resolution flood models, infrastructure accessibility data and deprivation indices to generate multi-scenario flood exposure assessments for 2020–2100. The findings demonstrate how open, reproducible modelling can underpin inclusive stakeholder engagement and inform equitable adaptation strategies. By situating hazard analysis within a socio-economic context, the ARRCC-L framework offers a transferable decision support tool for embedding resilience considerations into regional planning, supporting both local adaptation measures and national risk governance.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas O’Shea & Dónall Cross & Mark G. Macklin & Chris Thomas, 2025. "Advancing Sustainability and Resilience in Vulnerable Rural and Coastal Communities Facing Environmental Change with a Regionally Focused Composite Mapping Framework," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(17), pages 1-25, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:17:p:8065-:d:1744347
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