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Is migration drought-induced in Mali? An empirical analysis using panel data on Malian localities over the 1987-2009 period

Author

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  • Dimitri Defrance

    (Espace-Dev, Université Montpellier, IRD, Université Guyane, Université Réunion, Université Antilles, Université Avignon)

  • Esther Delesalle

    (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES))

  • Flore Gubert

    (IRD, UMR LEDa-DIAL, PSL, Université Paris-Dauphine, CNRS, and PSE)

Abstract

This paper combines population census data and climate data to estimate the volume of migrations induced by the drought events that have hit Mali since the late 1980s. The results show that the droughts that have unevenly affected the regions of Mali have had the effect of increasing migration from rural to urban areas. This is true for both men and women, regardless of the age group considered. Between 1998 and 2009, droughts translate into an additional net outflow of 7,134 male and 6,281 female rural migrants per year. The effect of drought episodes, however, differs according to localities and rural households' capacity to adapt to climatic constraints: it fades in localities characterized by more diversified crops and in those located in the Sudano-Sahelian and Sudano-Guinean zones that receive more rainfall on average. Climate shocks also had an impact on international mobility: over the 2004-2009 period, around 2,000 additional departures per year can be attributed to the dry episodes that hit Mali during the 2000s. We forecast that, under different climate scenarios and population growth projection, internal and international mobility induced by droughts events will substantially grow in the next decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitri Defrance & Esther Delesalle & Flore Gubert, 2020. "Is migration drought-induced in Mali? An empirical analysis using panel data on Malian localities over the 1987-2009 period," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2020003, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  • Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvir:2020003
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    1. Marchetta, Francesca & Sahn, David E. & Tiberti, Luca & Dufour, Johany, 2021. "Heterogeneity in Migration Responses to Climate Shocks: Evidence from Madagascar," IZA Discussion Papers 14052, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; Migration; Mali;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

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