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Determinants of Mexico-US outward and return migration flows: a state-level panel data analysis

Listed author(s):
  • Isabelle Chort

    ()

    (LEDa, UMR DIAL-Paris-Dauphine)

  • Maëlys de la Rupelle

    ()

    (THEMA, Université de Cergy-Pontoise)

(english) In this paper, we investigate the determinants of the regional patterns of Mexico-US migration flows. Along with traditional economic determinants, we examine the role played by environmental factors and violence in Mexico in determining migration patterns and their evolutions. We estimate a microgrounded gravity model of migration using a panel dataset of state-to-state emigration and return migration flows between Mexico and the US for the period 1995-2012. We exploit the time and dyadic dimension of the data to control for time-invariant and time-variant characteristics of destination states, including migration policies. Our results suggest that along with the traditional economic determinants of migration, climatic and social factors contribute to shaping regional migration patterns. _________________________________ (français) Nous étudions dans cet article les déterminants des tendances régionales des flux migratoires entre le Mexique et les Etats-Unis. A côté des déterminants économiques traditionnels des migrations, nous explorons le rôle de facteurs environnementaux et sociaux sur les caractéristiques et l’évolution des flux migratoires entre états. Nous estimons un modèle de gravité micro-fondé, à partir de données de panel sur les flux migratoires entrants et de retour entre états mexicains et états-uniens sur la période 1995-2012. Nous exploitons la dimension temporelle et dyadique de nos données pour contrôler pour les caractéristiques des états de destination susceptibles d’affecter les flux migratoires, notamment les changements de politiques migratoires. Nos résultats suggèrent que les facteurs sociaux et climatiques contribuent à expliquer les tendances régionales observées.

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File URL: http://www.dial.ird.fr/media/ird-sites-d-unites-de-recherche/dial/documents/publications/doc_travail/2015/2015-03
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Paper provided by DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation) in its series Working Papers with number DT/2015/03.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2015
Handle: RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt201503
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