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The Impact of Rainfall on Rice Output in Indonesia

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  • David I. Levine
  • Dean Yang

Abstract

We estimate the impact of weather variation on agricultural output in Indonesia by examining the impact of local rainfall shocks on rice output at the district level. Our analysis makes use of local meteorological data on rainfall in combination with government administrative data on district-level rice output in the 1990s. We find that deviations from mean local rainfall are positively associated with district-level rice output. 10% higher rainfall leads metric tons of rice output to be 0.4% higher on average. The impact of rainfall on rice output occurs contemporaneously (in the same calendar year), rather than with a lag. These results suggest that researchers should be justified in interpreting higher rainfall as a positive contemporaneous shock to local economic conditions in Indonesia.

Suggested Citation

  • David I. Levine & Dean Yang, 2014. "The Impact of Rainfall on Rice Output in Indonesia," NBER Working Papers 20302, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20302
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    3. Andrea Cinque & Lennart Reiners, 2022. "Confined to Stay: Natural Disasters and Indonesia's Migration Ban," CESifo Working Paper Series 9837, CESifo.
    4. Yaumidin, Umi Karomah, 2020. "Farmers’ responses to unexpected weather variability in developing countries: The case of Indonesia," 2020 Conference (64th), February 12-14, 2020, Perth, Western Australia 305233, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    5. Tushar Bharati & Seungwoo Chin & Dawoon Jung, 2020. "Recovery from an Early-Life Shock through Improved Access to Schools," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 20-04, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    6. Kaori Tembata & Kenji Takeuchi, 2018. "The Impact Of Climate Variability On Drought Management: Evidence From Japanese River Basins," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(04), pages 1-20, November.
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    8. Chandio, Abbas Ali & Dash, Devi Prasad & Nathaniel, Solomon Prince & Sargani, Ghulam Raza & Jiang, Yuansheng, 2023. "Mitigation pathways towards climate change: Modelling the impact of climatological factors on wheat production in top six regions of China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 481(C).
    9. Samuel Bazzi, 2017. "Wealth Heterogeneity and the Income Elasticity of Migration," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 219-255, April.
    10. Connie Bayudan-Dacuycuy & Lora Kryz Baje, 2019. "When It Rains, It Pours? Analyzing the Rainfall Shocks-Poverty Nexus in the Philippines," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 145(1), pages 67-93, August.
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    13. Edward Osei & Syed H. Jafri & Ali Saleh & Philip W. Gassman & Oscar Gallego, 2023. "Simulated Climate Change Impacts on Corn and Soybean Yields in Buchanan County, Iowa," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-21, January.

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    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

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