IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ehl/lserod/113353.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The origins of cognitive skills and non-cognitive skills: the long-term effect of in-utero rainfall shocks in India

Author

Listed:
  • Chang, Grace
  • Favara, Marta
  • Novella, Rafael

Abstract

Skills are an important predictor of labour, education, and wellbeing outcomes. Understanding the origins of skills formation is important for reducing future inequalities. This paper analyses the effect of shocks in-utero on human capital outcomes in childhood and adolescence in India. Combining historical rainfall data and longitudinal data from Young Lives, we estimate the effect of rainfall shocks in-utero on cognitive and non-cognitive skills development over the first 15 years of life. We find negative effects of rainfall shocks on receptive vocabulary at age 5, and on mathematics and non-cognitive skills at age 15. The negative effects on cognitive skills are driven by boys, while the effect for both cognitive and non-cognitive skills are driven by children of parents with lower education, suggesting that prenatal shocks might exacerbate pre-existing inequalities. Our findings support the implementation of policies aiming at reducing inequalities at very early stages in life.

Suggested Citation

  • Chang, Grace & Favara, Marta & Novella, Rafael, 2022. "The origins of cognitive skills and non-cognitive skills: the long-term effect of in-utero rainfall shocks in India," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113353, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:113353
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/113353/
    File Function: Open access version.
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chatterjee, Jagori & Merfeld, Joshua D., 2020. "Protecting Girls from Droughts with Social Safety Nets," IZA Discussion Papers 13694, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Rocha, Rudi & Soares, Rodrigo R., 2015. "Water scarcity and birth outcomes in the Brazilian semiarid," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 72-91.
    3. Erik Hanushek & Stephen Machin & Ludger Woessmann (ed.), 2011. "Handbook of the Economics of Education," Handbook of the Economics of Education, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 4, number 4, June.
    4. Abhijit Banerjee & Esther Duflo & Gilles Postel-Vinay & Timothy M. Watts, 2007. "Long Run Health Impacts of Income Shocks: Wine and Phylloxera in 19th Century France," NBER Working Papers 12895, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Maria C. Lo Bue, 2019. "Early Childhood during Indonesia's Wildfires: Health Outcomes and Long-Run Schooling Achievements," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(4), pages 969-1003.
    6. Sharon Maccini & Dean Yang, 2009. "Under the Weather: Health, Schooling, and Economic Consequences of Early-Life Rainfall," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1006-1026, June.
    7. Skoufias, Emmanuel & Vinha, Katja, 2012. "Climate variability and child height in rural Mexico," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 54-73.
    8. Manisha Shah & Bryce Millett Steinberg, 2017. "Drought of Opportunities: Contemporaneous and Long-Term Impacts of Rainfall Shocks on Human Capital," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(2), pages 527-561.
    9. Douglas Almond & Bhashkar Mazumder & Reyn Ewijk, 2015. "In Utero Ramadan Exposure and Children's Academic Performance," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(589), pages 1501-1533, December.
    10. Lex Borghans & Angela Lee Duckworth & James J. Heckman & Bas ter Weel, 2008. "The Economics and Psychology of Personality Traits," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 43(4).
    11. Thuan Q. Thai & Evangelos M. Falaris, 2014. "Child Schooling, Child Health, and Rainfall Shocks: Evidence from Rural Vietnam," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(7), pages 1025-1037, July.
    12. Gabriella Conti & Mark Hanson & Hazel Inskip & Sarah Crozier & Cyrus Cooper & Keith Godfrey, 2018. "Beyond Birth Weight: The Origins of Human Capital," Working Papers 2018-089, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    13. Flavio Cunha & James J. Heckman & Susanne M. Schennach, 2010. "Estimating the Technology of Cognitive and Noncognitive Skill Formation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(3), pages 883-931, May.
    14. Douglas Almond, 2006. "Is the 1918 Influenza Pandemic Over? Long-Term Effects of In Utero Influenza Exposure in the Post-1940 U.S. Population," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(4), pages 672-712, August.
    15. James J. Heckman & Jora Stixrud & Sergio Urzua, 2006. "The Effects of Cognitive and Noncognitive Abilities on Labor Market Outcomes and Social Behavior," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 24(3), pages 411-482, July.
    16. Achyuta Adhvaryu & Teresa Molina & Anant Nyshadham & Jorge Tamayo, 2023. "Helping Children Catch Up: Early Life Shocks and the PROGRESA Experiment," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(657), pages 1-22.
    17. Fletcher, Jason M., 2018. "The effects of in utero exposure to the 1918 influenza pandemic on family formation," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 59-68.
    18. John Hoddinott, 2006. "Shocks and their consequences across and within households in Rural Zimbabwe," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 301-321.
    19. Spears, Dean, 2012. "Height and cognitive achievement among Indian children," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 210-219.
    20. Taryn Dinkelman, 2017. "Long‐run Health Repercussions of Drought Shocks: Evidence from South African Homelands," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(604), pages 1906-1939, September.
    21. Andrew Dillon & Kevin McGee & Gbemisola Oseni, 2015. "Agricultural Production, Dietary Diversity and Climate Variability," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(8), pages 976-995, August.
    22. Almlund, Mathilde & Duckworth, Angela Lee & Heckman, James & Kautz, Tim, 2011. "Personality Psychology and Economics," Handbook of the Economics of Education, in: Erik Hanushek & Stephen Machin & Ludger Woessmann (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Education, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 1-181, Elsevier.
    23. Abhijit Banerjee & Esther Duflo & Gilles Postel-Vinay & Tim Watts, 2010. "Long-Run Health Impacts of Income Shocks: Wine and Phylloxera in Nineteenth-Century France," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 714-728, November.
    24. Andalón, Mabel & Azevedo, João Pedro & Rodríguez-Castelán, Carlos & Sanfelice, Viviane & Valderrama-González, Daniel, 2016. "Weather Shocks and Health at Birth in Colombia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 69-82.
    25. Edward Miguel & Michael Kremer, 2004. "Worms: Identifying Impacts on Education and Health in the Presence of Treatment Externalities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(1), pages 159-217, January.
    26. Bladimir Carrillo, 2020. "Early Rainfall Shocks and Later-Life Outcomes: Evidence from Colombia," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 34(1), pages 179-209.
    27. Douglas Almond & Janet Currie, 2011. "Killing Me Softly: The Fetal Origins Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(3), pages 153-172, Summer.
    28. Taryn Dinkelman, 2017. "Long‐Run Health Repercussions of Drought Shocks: Evidence from South African Homelands," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(604), pages 1906-1939.
    29. Baez Ramirez,Javier Eduardo & Caruso,German Daniel & Niu,Chiyu, 2017. "Tracing back the weather origins of human welfare: evidence from Mozambique," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8167, The World Bank.
    30. María Fernanda Rosales, 2014. "Impact of Early Life Shocks on Human Capital Formation: El Niño Floods in Ecuador," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 87693, Inter-American Development Bank.
    31. Majid, Muhammad Farhan, 2015. "The persistent effects of in utero nutrition shocks over the life cycle: Evidence from Ramadan fasting," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 48-57.
    32. Santosh Kumar & Ramona Molitor & Sebastian Vollmer, 2014. "Children of Drought: Rainfall Shocks and Early Child Health in Rural India," Working Papers 1407, Sam Houston State University, Department of Economics and International Business.
    33. Glewwe, Paul & Jacoby, Hanan G. & King, Elizabeth M., 2001. "Early childhood nutrition and academic achievement: a longitudinal analysis," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 345-368, September.
    34. Datar, Ashlesha & Liu, Jenny & Linnemayr, Sebastian & Stecher, Chad, 2013. "The impact of natural disasters on child health and investments in rural India," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 83-91.
    35. Anna Aizer & Laura Stroud & Stephen Buka, 2016. "Maternal Stress and Child Outcomes: Evidence from Siblings," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 51(3), pages 523-555.
    36. Douglas Almond & Bhashkar Mazumder, 2011. "Health Capital and the Prenatal Environment: The Effect of Ramadan Observance during Pregnancy," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 56-85, October.
    37. Lisa Cameron & Manisha Shah, 2015. "Risk-Taking Behavior in the Wake of Natural Disasters," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(2), pages 484-515.
    38. Rosales-Rueda, Maria, 2018. "The impact of early life shocks on human capital formation: evidence from El Niño floods in Ecuador," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 13-44.
    39. Skoufias, Emmanuel & Vinha, Katja & Conroy, Hector V., 2011. "The impacts of climate variability on welfare in rural Mexico," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5555, The World Bank.
    40. Flavio Cunha & James J. Heckman, 2008. "Formulating, Identifying and Estimating the Technology of Cognitive and Noncognitive Skill Formation," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 43(4).
    41. Amare, Mulubrhan & Jensen, Nathaniel D. & Shiferaw, Bekele & Cissé, Jennifer Denno, 2018. "Rainfall shocks and agricultural productivity: Implication for rural household consumption," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 79-89.
    42. Elaina Rose, 1999. "Consumption Smoothing and Excess Female Mortality in Rural India," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(1), pages 41-49, February.
    43. Erik Hanushek & Stephen Machin & Ludger Woessmann (ed.), 2011. "Handbook of the Economics of Education," Handbook of the Economics of Education, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 3, number 3, June.
    44. Bundervoet, Tom & Fransen, Sonja, 2018. "The educational impact of shocks in utero: Evidence from Rwanda," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 88-101.
    45. Lembke B., 1918. "√ a. p," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 111(1), pages 709-712, February.
    46. Prashant Bharadwaj & Juan Pedro Eberhard & Christopher A. Neilson, 2018. "Health at Birth, Parental Investments, and Academic Outcomes," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(2), pages 349-394.
    47. Jason M. Fletcher, 2018. "New Evidence on the Impacts of Early Exposure to the 1918 Influenza Pandemic on Old-Age Mortality," Working Papers 18-06, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Juan Segundo Zapiola, 2023. "Drought Shocks and School Attendance in Tanzania," Young Researchers Working Papers 12, Universidad de San Andres, Departamento de Economia, revised Aug 2023.
    2. Nicolas Pazos & Marta Favara & Alan Sánchez & Douglas Scott & Jere Behrman, 2022. "Long-term effects of rainfall shocks on foundational cognitive skills: Evidence from Peru," PIER Working Paper Archive 23-001, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fitz, Dylan & League, Riley, 2020. "The impact of early-life shocks on adult welfare in Brazil: Questions of measurement and timing," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    2. Shoji, Masahiro, 2020. "Early-Life Circumstances and Adult Locus of Control: Evidence from 46 Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 99987, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Douglas Almond & Janet Currie & Valentina Duque, 2018. "Childhood Circumstances and Adult Outcomes: Act II," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1360-1446, December.
    4. Bladimir Carrillo, 2020. "Early Rainfall Shocks and Later-Life Outcomes: Evidence from Colombia," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 34(1), pages 179-209.
    5. Andalón, Mabel & Azevedo, João Pedro & Rodríguez-Castelán, Carlos & Sanfelice, Viviane & Valderrama-González, Daniel, 2016. "Weather Shocks and Health at Birth in Colombia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 69-82.
    6. Jia Wu & Jiada Lin & Xiao Han, 2023. "Compensation for girls in early childhood and its long-run impact: family investment strategies under rainfall shocks," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(3), pages 1225-1268, July.
    7. Mochamad Pasha & Marc Rockmore & Chih Ming Tan & Dhanushka Thamarapani, 2023. "Early Life Exposure to Above Average Rainfall and Adult Mental Health," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(4), pages 692-717, August.
    8. Barron, Manuel, 2022. "Moving down the energy ladder: In-utero temperature and fuel choice in adulthood," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    9. Carrillo, B., 2018. "Fetal Exposure to Abnormal Rainfall Events and Later-Life Outcomes in Colombia," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277372, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Manuel Barron & Sam Heft-Neal & Tania Perez, 2018. "Long-term effects of weather during gestation on education and labor outcomes: Evidence from Peru," Working Papers 134, Peruvian Economic Association.
    11. Sulin Sardoschau, 2019. "Children of War: In-Utero Stress and Child Health in Iraq," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-02383137, HAL.
    12. Bratti, Massimiliano & Frimpong, Prince Boakye & Russo, Simone, 2021. "Prenatal Exposure to Heat Waves and Child Health in Sub-saharan Africa," IZA Discussion Papers 14424, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Berthelon, Matias & Kruger, Diana & Sanchez, Rafael, 2021. "Maternal stress during pregnancy and early childhood development," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    14. Sulin Sardoschau, 2019. "Children of War: In-Utero Stress and Child Health in Iraq," Working Papers halshs-02383137, HAL.
    15. Díaz, Juan-José & Saldarriaga, Victor, 2023. "A drop of love? Rainfall shocks and spousal abuse: Evidence from rural Peru," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    16. Richard Akresh & Sonia Bhalotra & Marinella Leone & Una Osili, 2023. "First- and Second-Generation Impacts of the Biafran War," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 58(2), pages 488-531.
    17. Gabriella Conti, 2013. "The Developmental Origins of Health Inequality," Research on Economic Inequality, in: Health and Inequality, volume 21, pages 285-309, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    18. Manuel Barron, 2018. "In-utero weather shocks and learning outcomes," Working Papers 137, Peruvian Economic Association.
    19. Deng, Zichen & Lindeboom, Maarten, 2022. "A bit of salt, a trace of life: Gender norms and the impact of a salt iodization program on human capital formation of school aged children," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    20. Richard Akresh & Sonia Bhalotra & Marinella Leone & Una Osili, 2017. "Hunger Games: First and Second Generation Impacts of the Biafran War," HiCN Working Papers 254, Households in Conflict Network.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    in-utero; India; rainfall shocks; skills formation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:113353. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: LSERO Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lsepsuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.