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Early Rainfall Shocks and Later-Life Outcomes: Evidence from Colombia

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  • Bladimir Carrillo

Abstract

This paper uses birth cohorts spanning several hundred locations over 40 years to examine the long-term consequences of in utero exposure to abnormal rainfall events in Colombia. The identification strategy exploits exogenous variation in extreme droughts or floods experienced by individuals while in utero in their birth location. The results indicate that individuals prenatally exposed to adverse rainfall shocks are more likely to report serious mental illness, have fewer years of schooling, display increased rates of illiteracy, and are less likely to work. These results are larger in magnitude for individuals born in areas with a higher risk of malaria, which is consistent with the notion that exposure to infectious and parasitic diseases may play an important role.

Suggested Citation

  • Bladimir Carrillo, 2020. "Early Rainfall Shocks and Later-Life Outcomes: Evidence from Colombia," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 34(1), pages 179-209.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:wbecrv:v:34:y:2020:i:1:p:179-209.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/wber/lhy014
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    Cited by:

    1. Matsuura,Masanori & Md Saiful Islam,Abu Hayat & Tauseef,Salauddin, 2023. "Mobile phone ownership, income diversification, and household welfare in rural Bangladesh," IDE Discussion Papers 875, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    2. Alejandro De la Fuente & Serio,Monserrat, 2024. "Vulnerability to Climate Risk–Induced Poverty in Latin America and the Caribbean," Policy Research Working Paper Series 11002, The World Bank.
    3. Alem, Yonas & Tato, Gidisa Lachisa, 2022. "Shocks and Mental Health: Panel Data Evidence from South Africa," EfD Discussion Paper 22-1, Environment for Development, University of Gothenburg.
    4. Barnor, Kodjo & Kafle, Kashi, 2025. "Dry weather, empty desks? Rainfall Shocks and Child Education in Tanzania," 2025 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2025, Denver, CO 360983, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Chang, Grace & Favara, Marta & Novella, Rafael, 2022. "The origins of cognitive skills and non-cognitive skills: The long-term effect of in-utero rainfall shocks in India," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    6. Chinh T. Mai & Akira Hibiki, 2023. "How Does Flood Affect Children Differently? The Impact of Flood on Children’s Education, Labor, Food Consumption, and Cognitive Development," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1211, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    7. Magdalena Bendini & Lelys Dinarte, 2020. "Does Maternal Depression Undermine Childhood Cognitive Development? Evidence from the Young Lives Survey in Peru," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(19), pages 1-18, October.
    8. Hong, Yumin, 2025. "Heat and humidity on early-life outcomes: Evidence from Mexico," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    9. Thanh P. Bui & Katsushi S. Imai, 2024. "Are There Any Long-Lasting Human-Capital Effects from Exposure to the United States' Herbicide Bombings over Generations? Evidence from the Vietnam War," Economics Discussion Paper Series 2401, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    10. Bas, Maria & Paunov, Caroline, 2025. "Riders on the storm: How do firms navigate production and market conditions amid El Niño?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    11. Noghanibehambari, Hamid & Bagheri, Hesamaldin & Toranji, Mostafa & Vu, Hoa & Tavassoli, Nasrin, 2025. "Womb to wisdom: Early-life exposure to midwifery laws and later-life disability," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 372(C).
    12. Alem, Yonas & Tato, Gidisa Lachisa, 2023. "Shocks and mental health: Panel data evidence from South Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    13. Abebe, Meseret B. & Alem, Yonas, 2025. "Covariate Shocks Increase Calorie Consumption: Unraveling the Paradox," EfD Discussion Paper 25-7, Environment for Development, University of Gothenburg.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development

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