IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agisys/v166y2018icp79-89.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Rainfall shocks and agricultural productivity: Implication for rural household consumption

Author

Listed:
  • Amare, Mulubrhan
  • Jensen, Nathaniel D.
  • Shiferaw, Bekele
  • Cissé, Jennifer Denno

Abstract

The paper investigates the impact of rainfall shocks on agricultural productivity and crop-specific agricultural land productivity. The paper also examines the impact of negative rainfall shocks on household consumption as well as its distributional impact by initial wealth and geographical zones. We use nationally representative panel datasets from Nigeria merged with georeferenced rainfall information. Negative rainfall shocks have heterogeneous effects on crop-specific agricultural productivity and based on geographical zones. We use an instrumental variables regression approach, where agricultural land productivity is instrumented with negative rainfall shocks. A negative rainfall shock decreases agricultural productivity and hence decreases household consumption by 37%. We also show considerable differential impacts of rainfall shocks on household consumption by initial values of wealth and geographical zones. Rainfall shocks have a negative, significant impact for asset-poor and nonpoor households, but has a higher impact on household consumption for asset-poor households. Similarly, it has higher impact for land-poor households and households in northern Nigeria.

Suggested Citation

  • Amare, Mulubrhan & Jensen, Nathaniel D. & Shiferaw, Bekele & Cissé, Jennifer Denno, 2018. "Rainfall shocks and agricultural productivity: Implication for rural household consumption," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 79-89.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:166:y:2018:i:c:p:79-89
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2018.07.014
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X18302440
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.agsy.2018.07.014?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mulubrhan Amare & Solomon Asfaw & Bekele Shiferaw, 2012. "Welfare impacts of maize–pigeonpea intensification in Tanzania," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 43(1), pages 27-43, January.
    2. Rocha, Rudi & Soares, Rodrigo R., 2015. "Water scarcity and birth outcomes in the Brazilian semiarid," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 72-91.
    3. Kilic, Talip & Palacios-López, Amparo & Goldstein, Markus, 2015. "Caught in a Productivity Trap: A Distributional Perspective on Gender Differences in Malawian Agriculture," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 416-463.
    4. Dercon, Stefan & Christiaensen, Luc, 2011. "Consumption risk, technology adoption and poverty traps: Evidence from Ethiopia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 159-173, November.
    5. Barrett, Christopher B., 1996. "On price risk and the inverse farm size-productivity relationship," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 193-215, December.
    6. Jean-Paul Chavas & Ragan Petrie & Michael Roth, 2005. "Farm Household Production Efficiency: Evidence from The Gambia," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 87(1), pages 160-179.
    7. Douglas Gollin & David Lagakos & Michael E. Waugh, 2014. "Agricultural Productivity Differences across Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 165-170, May.
    8. Sharon Maccini & Dean Yang, 2009. "Under the Weather: Health, Schooling, and Economic Consequences of Early-Life Rainfall," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1006-1026, June.
    9. Loayza, Norman V. & Raddatz, Claudio, 2010. "The composition of growth matters for poverty alleviation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 137-151, September.
    10. Hausman, Jerry A & Taylor, William E, 1981. "Panel Data and Unobservable Individual Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1377-1398, November.
    11. Solomon Asfaw & Federica Di Battista & Leslie Lipper, 2016. "Agricultural Technology Adoption under Climate Change in the Sahel: Micro-evidence from Niger," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 25(5), pages 637-669.
    12. Barrett, Christopher B. & Bellemare, Marc F. & Hou, Janet Y., 2010. "Reconsidering Conventional Explanations of the Inverse Productivity-Size Relationship," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 88-97, January.
    13. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588.
    14. Ravallion, Martin & Datt, Gaurav, 1999. "When is growth pro-poor? Evidence from the diverse experiences of India's states," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2263, The World Bank.
    15. Carletto, Calogero & Savastano, Sara & Zezza, Alberto, 2013. "Fact or artifact: The impact of measurement errors on the farm size–productivity relationship," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 254-261.
    16. Bekele Shiferaw & Tewodros Kebede & Menale Kassie & Monica Fisher, 2015. "Market imperfections, access to information and technology adoption in Uganda: challenges of overcoming multiple constraints," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 46(4), pages 475-488, July.
    17. Angus Deaton & Christina Paxson, 1998. "Economies of Scale, Household Size, and the Demand for Food," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 897-930, October.
    18. Mendola, Mariapia, 2007. "Agricultural technology adoption and poverty reduction: A propensity-score matching analysis for rural Bangladesh," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 372-393, June.
    19. Stein Holden & Bekele Shiferaw & John Pender, 2001. "Market Imperfections and Land Productivity in the Ethiopian Highlands," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(3), pages 53-70, September.
    20. Yonas Alem & Mintewab Bezabih & Menale Kassie & Precious Zikhali, 2010. "Does fertilizer use respond to rainfall variability? Panel data evidence from Ethiopia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(2), pages 165-175, March.
    21. Mogues, Tewodaj & Yu, Bingxin & Fan, Shenggen & McBride, Linden, 2012. "The impacts of public investment in and for agriculture: synthesis of the existing evidence," ESA Working Papers 288994, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA).
    22. Simeon Ehui & John Pender, 2005. "Resource degradation, low agricultural productivity, and poverty in sub‐Saharan Africa: pathways out of the spiral," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 32(s1), pages 225-242, January.
    23. de Janvry, Alain & Fafchamps, Marcel & Sadoulet, Elisabeth, 1991. "Peasant Household Behaviour with Missing Markets: Some Paradoxes Explained," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1400-1417, November.
    24. Borgomeo, Edoardo & Vadheim, Bryan & Woldeyes, Firew B. & Alamirew, Tena & Tamru, Seneshaw & Charles, Katrina J. & Kebede, Seifu & Walker, Oliver, 2018. "The Distributional and Multi-Sectoral Impacts of Rainfall Shocks: Evidence From Computable General Equilibrium Modelling for the Awash Basin, Ethiopia," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 621-632.
    25. Thirtle, Colin & Lin, Lin & Piesse, Jenifer, 2003. "The Impact of Research-Led Agricultural Productivity Growth on Poverty Reduction in Africa, Asia and Latin America," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 1959-1975, December.
    26. Sara Horrell & Pramila Krishnan, 2007. "Poverty and productivity in female-headed households in Zimbabwe," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(8), pages 1351-1380.
    27. Mulubrhan Amare & Bekele Shiferaw, 2017. "Nonfarm employment, agricultural intensification, and productivity change: empirical findings from Uganda," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 48(S1), pages 59-72, November.
    28. de Janvry, Alain & Fafchamps, M. & Sadoulet, Elisabeth, 1991. "Peasant Household Behavior with Missing Markets: Some Paradoxes Explain," CUDARE Working Papers 198579, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    29. Michael Carter & Christopher Barrett, 2006. "The economics of poverty traps and persistent poverty: An asset-based approach," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 178-199.
    30. Richard Tiffin & Xavier Irz, 2006. "Is agriculture the engine of growth?," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 35(1), pages 79-89, July.
    31. Douglas Gollin & Stephen Parente & Richard Rogerson, 2002. "The Role of Agriculture in Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 160-164, May.
    32. Diao, Xinshen & Hazell, Peter & Thurlow, James, 2010. "The Role of Agriculture in African Development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 1375-1383, October.
    33. World Bank, 2014. "World Development Indicators 2014," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 18237.
    34. Alain de Janvry & Elisabeth Sadoulet, 2010. "Agricultural Growth and Poverty Reduction: Additional Evidence," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 25(1), pages 1-20, February.
    35. Christopher B. Barrett & Michael R. Carter, 2013. "The Economics of Poverty Traps and Persistent Poverty: Empirical and Policy Implications," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(7), pages 976-990, July.
    36. Craig McIntosh & Alexander Sarris & Fotis Papadopoulos, 2013. "Productivity, credit, risk, and the demand for weather index insurance in smallholder agriculture in Ethiopia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 44(4-5), pages 399-417, July.
    37. Christiaensen, Luc & Demery, Lionel & Kuhl, Jesper, 2011. "The (evolving) role of agriculture in poverty reduction--An empirical perspective," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 239-254, November.
    38. Marc F. Bellemare, 2013. "The Productivity Impacts of Formal and Informal Land Rights: Evidence from Madagascar," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 89(2), pages 272-290.
    39. Hans P. Binswanger, 2000. "The Growth Performance of Agriculture in Subsaharan Africa," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(5), pages 1075-1086.
    40. Collier, Paul & Dercon, Stefan, 2014. "African Agriculture in 50Years: Smallholders in a Rapidly Changing World?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 92-101.
    41. Salvador Barrios & Luisito Bertinelli & Eric Strobl, 2010. "Trends in Rainfall and Economic Growth in Africa: A Neglected Cause of the African Growth Tragedy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 350-366, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Katharina Grabrucker & Michael Grimm, 2021. "Is There a Rainbow after the Rain? How Do Agricultural Shocks Affect Non‐Farm Enterprises? Evidence from Thailand," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(5), pages 1612-1636, October.
    2. Francesca Marchetta & David E Sahn & Luca Tiberti, 2019. "The Role of Weather on Schooling and Work of Young Adults in Madagascar," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1203-1227.
    3. Pratap S. Birthal & Jaweriah Hazrana & Digvijay S. Negi, 2019. "A multilevel analysis of drought risk in Indian agriculture: implications for managing risk at different geographical levels," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 499-513, December.
    4. Collins-Sowah, Peron A. & Henning, Christian H. C. A., 2019. "Risk management and its implications on household incomes," Working Papers of Agricultural Policy WP2019-05, University of Kiel, Department of Agricultural Economics, Chair of Agricultural Policy.
    5. Amare, Mulubrhan & Abay, Kibrom A. & Tiberti, Luca & Chamberlin, Jordan, 2021. "COVID-19 and food security: Panel data evidence from Nigeria," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    6. Mulubrhan Amare & Bekele Shiferaw & Hiroyuki Takeshima & George Mavrotas, 2021. "Variability in agricultural productivity and rural household consumption inequality: Evidence from Nigeria and Uganda," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(1), pages 19-36, January.
    7. Islam, Asif & Hyland, Marie, 2019. "The drivers and impacts of water infrastructure reliability – a global analysis of manufacturing firms," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 143-157.
    8. Birthal, Pratap S. & Hazrana, Jaweriah, 2019. "Crop diversification and resilience of agriculture to climatic shocks: Evidence from India," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 345-354.
    9. Bannor, Frank & Dikgang, Johane & Gelo, Dambala, 2021. "Agricultural total factor productivity growth, technical efficiency, and climate variability in sub-Saharan Africa," EconStor Preprints 231310, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    10. Mamoudou Ba & Mazhar Mughal, 2021. "Weather shocks, coping strategies and household well-being: Evidence from rural Mauritania [Chocs météorologiques, stratégies d'adaptation et bien-être des ménages ruraux en Mauritanie]," Working Papers hal-02946273, HAL.
    11. Digvijay S. Negi & Pratap S. Birthal & Devesh Roy & Jaweriah Hazrana, 2020. "Market access, price policy and diversification in Indian agriculture," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2020-009, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    12. Mubenga-Tshitaka, Jean-Luc & Gelo, Dambala & Dikgang, Johane & Mwamba, Muteba, 2021. "Panel threshold effect of climate variability on agricultural output in Eastern African countries," MPRA Paper 108721, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Bannor, Frank & Dikgang, Johane & Kutela Gelo, Dambala, 2021. "Interdependence between research and development, climate variability and agricultural production: evidence from sub-Saharan Africa," MPRA Paper 105697, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mulubrhan Amare & Bekele Shiferaw & Hiroyuki Takeshima & George Mavrotas, 2021. "Variability in agricultural productivity and rural household consumption inequality: Evidence from Nigeria and Uganda," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(1), pages 19-36, January.
    2. Bannor, Frank & Dikgang, Johane & Kutela Gelo, Dambala, 2021. "Interdependence between research and development, climate variability and agricultural production: evidence from sub-Saharan Africa," MPRA Paper 105697, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Ali, Daniel & Bowen, Derick & Deininger, Klaus & Duponchel, Marguerite, 2016. "Investigating the Gender Gap in Agricultural Productivity: Evidence from Uganda," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 152-170.
    4. Larson,Donald F. & Muraoka,Rie & Otsuka,Keijiro, 2016. "On the central role of small farms in African rural development strategies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7710, The World Bank.
    5. Conceição, Pedro & Levine, Sebastian & Lipton, Michael & Warren-Rodríguez, Alex, 2016. "Toward a food secure future: Ensuring food security for sustainable human development in Sub-Saharan Africa," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 1-9.
    6. Dorosh, Paul & Thurlow, James, 2018. "Beyond Agriculture Versus Non-Agriculture: Decomposing Sectoral Growth–Poverty Linkages in Five African Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 440-451.
    7. Dorosh, Paul A. & Thurlow, James, 2014. "Beyond agriculture versus nonagriculture: Decomposing sectoral growth–poverty linkages in five African countries:," IFPRI discussion papers 1391, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    8. Lovo, Stefania & Veronesi, Marcella, 2019. "Crop Diversification and Child Health: Empirical Evidence From Tanzania," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 168-179.
    9. Kirk, Angeli & Kilic, Talip & Carletto, Calogero, 2018. "Composition of Household Income and Child Nutrition Outcomes Evidence from Uganda," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 452-469.
    10. Haile, Kaleab K. & Nillesen, Eleonora & Tirivayi, Nyasha, 2020. "Impact of formal climate risk transfer mechanisms on risk-aversion: Empirical evidence from rural Ethiopia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    11. Kibrom A. Abay & Nathaniel D. Jensen, 2020. "Access to markets, weather risk, and livestock production decisions: Evidence from Ethiopia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 51(4), pages 577-593, July.
    12. Ayala Wineman & Thomas S. Jayne, 2021. "Factor Market Activity and the Inverse Farm Size-Productivity Relationship in Tanzania," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(3), pages 443-464, March.
    13. McArthur, John W. & McCord, Gordon C., 2017. "Fertilizing growth: Agricultural inputs and their effects in economic development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 133-152.
    14. Josephson, Anna & Ricker-Gilbert, Jacob, 2020. "Preferences and crop choice during Zimbabwe’s macroeconomic crisis," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 15(3), September.
    15. Barrett,Christopher B. & Sheahan,Megan Britney & Barrett,Christopher B. & Sheahan,Megan Britney, 2014. "Understanding the agricultural input landscape in Sub-Saharan Africa : recent plot, household, and community-level evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7014, The World Bank.
    16. Shiferaw, Bekele & Kassie, Menale & Jaleta, Moti & Yirga, Chilot, 2014. "Adoption of improved wheat varieties and impacts on household food security in Ethiopia," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 272-284.
    17. Fernando Aragon Sanchez & Diego Restuccia & Juan Pablo Rud, 2019. "Are Small Farms Really more Productive than Large Farms?," 2019 Meeting Papers 1230, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Steven Glover & Sam Jones, 2016. "Can commercial farming promote rural dynamism in sub-Saharan Africa? Evidence from Mozambique," WIDER Working Paper Series 120, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    19. Klasen, Stephan & Reimers, Malte, 2017. "Looking at Pro-Poor Growth from an Agricultural Perspective," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 147-168.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:166:y:2018:i:c:p:79-89. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agsy .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agsy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.