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New Evidence on the Impacts of Early Exposure to the 1918 Influenza Pandemic on Old-Age Mortality

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  • Jason M. Fletcher

Abstract

This paper provides new evidence of the impacts of early life exposure to the 1918 pandemic with old-age mortality by analyzing data from the National Longitudinal Mortality Study (n ~ 220,000). The specifications used year and quarter of birth indicators to assess the effects of timing of pandemic exposure and used Cox proportional hazard models for all-cause mortality outcomes. The findings suggest evidence of excess all-cause mortality for cohorts born during 1918 and mixed evidence for cohorts born in 1917 and 1919. Therefore, contrary to some existing research, the results suggest no consistent evidence of the importance of specific windows of exposure by gestation period.

Suggested Citation

  • Jason M. Fletcher, 2018. "New Evidence on the Impacts of Early Exposure to the 1918 Influenza Pandemic on Old-Age Mortality," Working Papers 18-06, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    • Handle: RePEc:cen:wpaper:18-06
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    File URL: https://www2.census.gov/ces/wp/2018/CES-WP-18-06.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sorlie, P.D. & Backlund, E. & Keller, J.B., 1995. "US mortality by economic, demographic, and social characteristics: The National Longitudinal Mortality Study," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 85(7), pages 949-956.
    2. Jason M. Fletcher, 2019. "Examining the long-term mortality effects of early health shocks," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(11), pages 902-908, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chang, Grace & Favara, Marta & Novella, Rafael, 2022. "The origins of cognitive skills and non-cognitive skills: The long-term effect of in-utero rainfall shocks in India," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    2. Noghanibehambari, Hamid & Fletcher, Jason, 2023. "Long-Term Health Benefits of Occupational Licensing: Evidence from Midwifery Laws," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    3. Hamid Noghanibehambari & Vikesh Amin & Jason Fletcher, 2025. "The effects of parental education on male mortality: evidence from the first wave of compulsory schooling laws," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 38(4), pages 1-24, December.
    4. Noghanibehambari, Hamid & Fletcher, Jason M., 2023. "The Long Shadow of the Past: Early-Life Disease Environment and Later-Life Mortality," IZA Discussion Papers 16503, IZA Network @ LISER.
    5. Jonas Helgertz & Tommy Bengtsson, 2019. "The Long-Lasting Influenza: The Impact of Fetal Stress During the 1918 Influenza Pandemic on Socioeconomic Attainment and Health in Sweden, 1968–2012," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(4), pages 1389-1425, August.
    6. Hamid Noghanibehambari & Jason Fletcher, 2025. "In Money, We Survive: The Effects of Social Security Retirement Income on Longevity," NBER Working Papers 34199, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Slusky, David J.G. & Zeckhauser, Richard J., 2021. "Sunlight and Protection Against Influenza," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    8. Doran, Áine & Colvin, Christopher L. & McLaughlin, Eoin, 2024. "What can we learn from historical pandemics? A systematic review of the literature," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 342(C).
    9. Noghanibehambari, Hamid & Engelman, Michal, 2022. "Social insurance programs and later-life mortality: Evidence from new deal relief spending," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    10. Hamid Noghanibehambari & Jason Fletcher & Lauren Schmitz & Valentina Duque & Vikas Gawai, 2024. "Early-life economic conditions and old-age male mortality: evidence from historical county-level bank deposit data," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 37(1), pages 1-33, March.
    11. Luqi Wang & Weibing Wang, 2021. "Temporal Trends in Notification and Mortality of Tuberculosis in China, 2004–2019: A Joinpoint and Age–Period–Cohort Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(11), pages 1-11, May.
    12. Noghanibehambari, Hamid & Fletcher, Jason, 2026. "Unhooking the past: Early-life exposure to hookworm eradication and later-life longevity," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    13. Hamid Noghanibehambari & Farzaneh Noghani, 2023. "Long‐run intergenerational health benefits of women empowerment: Evidence from suffrage movements in the US," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(11), pages 2583-2631, November.

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