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Weather shocks, traders' expectations, and food prices

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  • Marco Letta
  • Pierluigi Montalbano
  • Guillaume Pierre

Abstract

The empirical literature on the impacts of weather shocks on agricultural prices typically explores post‐harvest price dynamics rather than pre‐harvest ones. Inspired by the intra‐annual competitive storage theory, we empirically investigate the role of weather news in traders' anticipations on pre‐harvest price fluctuations in India's local markets. Using a panel of district‐level monthly wholesale food prices from 2004 to 2017, we leverage the time lag between a weather anomaly and the corresponding supply shock to isolate price reactions caused by changes in expectations. We find that drought conditions significantly increase food prices during the growing period, that is before any harvest failure has materialized. These results suggest that markets respond immediately to expected supply shortfalls by updating their beliefs and adapting accordingly and that the expectation channel accounts for a substantial share of supply‐side food price shocks. A direct comparison with the effects of the same weather anomalies on the prices of the first harvest month reveals that expectations anticipate more than 80% of the total price impact.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Letta & Pierluigi Montalbano & Guillaume Pierre, 2022. "Weather shocks, traders' expectations, and food prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(3), pages 1100-1119, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:ajagec:v:104:y:2022:i:3:p:1100-1119
    DOI: 10.1111/ajae.12258
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    2. Shon Ferguson & David Ubilava, 2022. "Global commodity market disruption and the fallout," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(4), pages 737-752, October.
    3. Musa Hasen Ahmed & Wondimagegn Mesfin Tesfaye & Franziska Gassmann, 2023. "Early growing season weather variation, expectation formation and agricultural land allocation decisions in Ethiopia," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(1), pages 255-272, February.
    4. Maureen Teresa Odongo & Roseline Nyakerario Misati & Anne Wangari Kamau & Kethi Ngoka Kisingu, 2022. "Climate Change and Inflation in Eastern and Southern Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-17, November.
    5. Hu, Xin & Zhu, Bo & Zhang, Bokai & Zhou, Sitong, 2024. "Do internal and external risk spillovers of the food system matter for national food security?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    6. Kakpo, Ange T. & Tabe-Ojong, Martin Paul, 2024. "Adapting to High Temperatures? The Increased Use of Climate-Resilient Crop Varieties in West Africa," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 344076, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Lin, Wen & Ma, Baojie & Liang, Jiangyuan & Jin, Shaosheng, 2024. "Price response to government disclosure of food safety information in developing markets," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    8. Huong Nguyen & Marcus Randall & Andrew Lewis, 2024. "Factors Affecting Crop Prices in the Context of Climate Change—A Review," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-17, January.

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