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Extreme Weather and Civil War: Does Drought Fuel Conflict in Somalia through Livestock Price Shocks?

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  • Jean-François Maystadt
  • Olivier Ecker

Abstract

A growing body of evidence shows a causal relationship between extreme weather events and civil conflict incidence at the global level. We find that this causality is also valid for droughts and local violent conflicts in a within-country setting over a short time frame in the case of Somalia. We estimate that a one standard deviation increase in drought intensity and length raises the likelihood of conflict by 62%. We also find that drought affects conflict through livestock price changes, establishing livestock markets as the primary channel of transmission in Somalia.

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  • Jean-François Maystadt & Olivier Ecker, 2014. "Extreme Weather and Civil War: Does Drought Fuel Conflict in Somalia through Livestock Price Shocks?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1157-1182.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:96:y:2014:i:4:p:1157-1182.
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