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Temperature extremes, global warming, and armed conflict: new insights from high resolution data

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  • Breckner, Miriam
  • Sunde, Uwe

Abstract

This paper contributes to the debate whether climate change and global warming cause conflicts by providing novel evidence about the role of extreme temperature events for armed conflict based on high-frequency high-resolution data for the entire continent of Africa. The analysis of monthly data for 4826 grid cells of 0.75 degrees latitude x longitude over the period 1997-2015 documents a positive effect of the occurrence of temperature extremes on conflict incidence. These effects are larger the more severe the extremes in terms of duration, and are larger in highly densely populated regions, in regions with lower agricultural productivity, and in regions with more pronounced land degradation. The results also point towards heterogeneity of the effect with respect to the type of violence and the crucial role of population dynamics. Considering the consequences of increases in the frequency of extreme events in a long-differences analysis delivers evidence for a positive effect on conflict. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Suggested Citation

  • Breckner, Miriam & Sunde, Uwe, 2019. "Temperature extremes, global warming, and armed conflict: new insights from high resolution data," Munich Reprints in Economics 78218, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:lmu:muenar:78218
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    Cited by:

    1. Ujjal Kumar Mukherjee & Benjamin E. Bagozzi & Snigdhansu Chatterjee, 2023. "A Bayesian framework for studying climate anomalies and social conflicts," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(2), March.
    2. Unfried, Kerstin & Kis-Katos, Krisztina & Poser, Tilman, 2022. "Water scarcity and social conflict," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    3. Qiang Wang & Jiale Guo & Rongrong Li & Xue-ting Jiang, 2024. "Economic growth and carbon emission in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries: The effects of oil, gas, and renewable energy," Energy & Environment, , vol. 35(4), pages 2107-2130, June.
    4. Huang, Yi & Li, Yanjun, 2023. "Labor activism over searing heat," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    5. Paula Torres-Higuera, 2024. "Warm Days, Warmer Homes? Effects of Temperature Shocks on Time Allocation," Documentos CEDE 21133, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    6. Klaus Deininger & Aparajita Goyal, 2024. "Land Policies for Resilient and Equitable Growth in Africa [Des politiques foncières pour une croissance résiliente et équitable en Afrique - Résumé analytique]," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 41451, April.
    7. Mohamed M. Mostafa, 2020. "Catastrophe Theory Predicts International Concern for Global Warming," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 18(3), pages 709-731, September.
    8. Raul Caruso & Emma Galli & Giulia Tringali, 2025. "Does corruption trigger political violence? Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa (1970-2020)," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Politica Economica dipe0053, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    9. Liran Harsgor & Alon Yakter, 2024. "Public Preferences for Intergroup Assistance in Conflicts Facing Joint External Threats: Lessons From COVID-19 in Israel," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 68(7-8), pages 1522-1551, August.
    10. Li, Jianglong & Meng, Guanfei, 2023. "Pollution exposure and social conflicts: Evidence from China's daily data," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    11. André Tashi Gasser & Bruno Lanz, 2023. "Climate change, temperature extremes, and conflict: Evidence from mainland Southeast Asia," IRENE Working Papers 23-05, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    12. Federica Cappelli & Caterina Conigliani & Davide Consoli & Valeria Costantini & Elena Paglialunga, 2023. "Climate change and armed conflicts in Africa: temporal persistence, non-linear climate impact and geographical spillovers," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 40(2), pages 517-560, July.
    13. Charles Norman & Lothar Schwinden & Paul Krusic & Andreas Rzepecki & Tatiana Bebchuk & Ulf Büntgen, 2025. "Droughts and conflicts during the late Roman period," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(5), pages 1-17, May.
    14. Meijing Chen & Qian Zhou & Weili Duan & Qiang Xue & Cuibai Chen, 2023. "Using an improved ecological footprint model to analyze the sustainable utilization of water resources in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(8), pages 8517-8538, August.
    15. Angela Ujunwa & Chinwe Okoyeuzu & Nelson Nkwor & Augustine Ujunwa, 2021. "Potential Impact of Climate Change and Armed Conflict on Inequality in Sub‐Saharan Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 89(4), pages 480-498, December.
    16. Li, Chengchun & Tanna, Sailesh & De Vita, Glauco & Yang, Keyi & Luo, Yun & Chen, Yan, 2025. "Do foreign direct investment and trade affect the relationship between temperature and civil conflict?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    17. Sidney Michelini & Barbora Šedová & Jacob Schewe & Katja Frieler, 2023. "Extreme weather impacts do not improve conflict predictions in Africa," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
    18. Ruikun Peng & Yinyin Zhao & Ehsan Elahi & Benhong Peng, 2021. "Does disaster shocks affect farmers’ willingness for insurance? Mediating effect of risk perception and survey data from risk-prone areas in East China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 106(3), pages 2883-2899, April.
    19. Yang, Qi-Cheng & Zheng, Mingbo & Wang, Jun-Sheng & Wang, Yun-Peng, 2022. "The shocks of armed conflicts to renewable energy finance: Empirical evidence from cross-country data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    20. van Weezel, Stijn, 2020. "Local warming and violent armed conflict in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    21. Lucas Bretschger & Karen Pittel, 2019. "Twenty Key Questions in Environmental and Resource Economics," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 19/328, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    22. Conigliani, Caterina & Costantini, Valeria & Paglialunga, Elena & Tancredi, Andrea, 2024. "Forecasting the climate-conflict risk in Africa along climate-related scenarios and multiple socio-economic drivers," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    23. Jedwab, Remi & Blankespoor, Brian & Masaki, Takaaki & Rodríguez-Castelán, Carlos, 2025. "Estimating the spillover economic effects of foreign conflict shocks: Evidence from Boko Haram," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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