IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/irn/wpaper/23-05.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Climate change, temperature extremes, and conflict: Evidence from mainland Southeast Asia

Author

Listed:
  • André Tashi Gasser
  • Bruno Lanz

Abstract

We exploit 0.5x0.5 degree raster data for mainland Southeast Asia from 2010 to 2020 to document a non-linear relationship between extreme temperature days and conflict. We show that the occurrence of conflict events increases with extreme maximum temperature days, whereas days with extreme minimum temperature decrease the occurrence of conflict. Because climate change makes both maximum and minimum temperature extremes more likely, these effects partially offset each other on aggregate. However, our results further suggest that the impact of extreme maximum and minimum temperature days differs for the type of conflict, actors involved and population affected, indicating complex distributional consequences.

Suggested Citation

  • André Tashi Gasser & Bruno Lanz, 2023. "Climate change, temperature extremes, and conflict: Evidence from mainland Southeast Asia," IRENE Working Papers 23-05, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:irn:wpaper:23-05
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www5.unine.ch/RePEc/ftp/irn/pdfs/WP23-05.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Raul Caruso & Ilaria Petrarca & Roberto Ricciuti, 2016. "Climate change, rice crops, and violence," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 53(1), pages 66-83, January.
    2. Mariaflavia Harari & Eliana La Ferrara, 2018. "Conflict, Climate, and Cells: A Disaggregated Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 594-608, October.
    3. Crost, Benjamin & Duquennois, Claire & Felter, Joseph H. & Rees, Daniel I., 2018. "Climate change, agricultural production and civil conflict: Evidence from the Philippines," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 379-395.
    4. Courtland Adams & Tobias Ide & Jon Barnett & Adrien Detges, 2018. "Sampling bias in climate–conflict research," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(3), pages 200-203, March.
    5. Eoin F McGuirk & Nathan Nunn, 2025. "Transhumant Pastoralism, Climate Change, and Conflict in Africa," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 92(1), pages 404-441.
    6. Gerdis Wischnath & Halvard Buhaug, 2014. "On climate variability and civil war in Asia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(4), pages 709-721, February.
    7. Gibson, John & Olivia, Susan & Boe-Gibson, Geua & Li, Chao, 2021. "Which night lights data should we use in economics, and where?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    8. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2012. "Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 66-95, July.
    9. Burke, M. & Craxton, M. & Kolstad, C.D. & Onda, C. & Allcott, H. & Baker, E. & Barrage, L. & Carson, R. & Gillingham, K. & Graff-Zivin, J. & Greenstone, M. & Hallegatte, S. & Hanemann, W.M. & Heal, G., 2016. "Opportunities for advances in climate change economics," ISU General Staff Papers 3565, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    10. Eoin F McGuirk & Nathan Nunn, 2025. "Transhumant Pastoralism, Climate Change, and Conflict in Africa," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 92(1), pages 404-441.
    11. Breckner, Miriam & Sunde, Uwe, 2019. "Temperature extremes, global warming, and armed conflict: new insights from high resolution data," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 1-1.
    12. Ranson, Matthew, 2014. "Crime, weather, and climate change," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 274-302.
    13. Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone, 2011. "Climate Change, Mortality, and Adaptation: Evidence from Annual Fluctuations in Weather in the US," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 152-185, October.
    14. Maximilian Auffhammer & Solomon M. Hsiang & Wolfram Schlenker & Adam Sobel, 2013. "Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 7(2), pages 181-198, July.
    15. Neville Nicholls, 1997. "Increased Australian wheat yield due to recent climate trends," Nature, Nature, vol. 387(6632), pages 484-485, May.
    16. Solomon Hsiang, 2016. "Climate Econometrics," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 43-75, October.
    17. Burke, M & Craxton, M & Kolstad, CD & Onda, C & Allcott, H & Baker, E & Barrage, L & Carson, R & Gillingham, K & Graf-Zivin, J & Greenstone, M & Hallegatte, S & Hanemann, WM & Heal, G & Hsiang, S & Jo, 2016. "Opportunities for advances in climate change economics," University of California at Santa Barbara, Recent Works in Economics qt4tc5d9pb, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    18. Solomon M. Hsiang, 2016. "Climate Econometrics," NBER Working Papers 22181, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Conley, T. G., 1999. "GMM estimation with cross sectional dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-45, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. van Weezel, Stijn, 2020. "Local warming and violent armed conflict in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    2. Emediegwu, Lotanna E. & Wossink, Ada & Hall, Alastair, 2022. "The impacts of climate change on agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa: A spatial panel data approach," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    3. Linsenmeier, Manuel, 2023. "Temperature variability and long-run economic development," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    4. Emediegwu, Lotanna E. & Ubabukoh, Chisom L., 2023. "Re-examining the impact of annual weather fluctuations on global livestock production," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 204(PA).
    5. Federica Cappelli & Caterina Conigliani & Davide Consoli & Valeria Costantini & Elena Paglialunga, 2023. "Climate change and armed conflicts in Africa: temporal persistence, non-linear climate impact and geographical spillovers," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 40(2), pages 517-560, July.
    6. Pierre Mérel & Matthew Gammans, 2021. "Climate Econometrics: Can the Panel Approach Account for Long‐Run Adaptation?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(4), pages 1207-1238, August.
    7. Richard S.J. Tol, 2020. "The Economic Impact of Weather and Climate," Video Library 2093, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    8. Hailemariam, Abebe & Awaworyi Churchill, Sefa & Appau, Samuelson, 2023. "Temperature, health and wellbeing in Australia," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    9. Baylis, Patrick, 2020. "Temperature and temperament: Evidence from Twitter," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    10. Mullins, Jamie T. & White, Corey, 2019. "Temperature and mental health: Evidence from the spectrum of mental health outcomes," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    11. Bareille, François & Chakir, Raja & Regnacq, Charles, 2024. "Rainwater shocks and economic growth: The role of the water cycle partition," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    12. Siganos, Antonios, 2024. "Climate theory & managerial decisions on cross-border mergers," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(1).
    13. repec:osf:socarx:xvucn_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Desbureaux, Sébastien & Rodella, Aude-Sophie, 2019. "Drought in the city: The economic impact of water scarcity in Latin American metropolitan areas," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 13-27.
    15. Gagliardi, Nicola & Grinza, Elena & Rycx, François, 2024. "The Productivity Impact of Global Warming: Firm-Level Evidence for Europe," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1485, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    16. Linsenmeier, Manuel, 2024. "Seasonal temperature variability and economic cycles," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    17. Bento, Antonio M. & Miller, Noah & Mookerjee, Mehreen & Severnini, Edson, 2023. "A unifying approach to measuring climate change impacts and adaptation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    18. Auffhammer, Maximilian, 2022. "Climate Adaptive Response Estimation: Short and long run impacts of climate change on residential electricity and natural gas consumption," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    19. Benedikt Janzen, 2022. "Temperature and Mental Health: Evidence from Helpline Calls," Papers 2207.04992, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2022.
    20. Filomena, Mattia & Picchio, Matteo, 2024. "Unsafe temperatures, unsafe jobs: The impact of weather conditions on work-related injuries," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 851-875.
    21. Bassino, Jean-Pascal & Lagoarde-Segot, Thomas & Woitek, Ulrich, 2020. "The irreversible welfare cost of climate anomalies. Evidence from Japan (1872-1917)," Discussion Paper Series 704, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; adaptation; conflict; extreme temperature;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • P48 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Legal Institutions; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Regional Studies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:irn:wpaper:23-05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Siwar Khelifa (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/irenech.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.