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Local Warming and Violent Conflict in North and South Sudan

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  • Margherita Calderone
  • Jean-Francois Maystadt
  • Liangzhi You

Abstract

Weather shocks and natural disasters, it has been argued, represent a major threat to national and international security. Our paper contributes to the emerging micro-level strand of the literature on the link between local variations in weather shocks and conflict by focusing on a pixel-level analysis for North and South Sudan at different geographical and time scales between 1997 and 2009. Temperature anomalies are found to strongly affect the risk of conflict. In the future the risk is expected to magnify in a range of 21 to 30 percent under a median scenario, taking into account uncertainties in both the climate projection and the estimate of the response of violence to temperature variations. Extreme temperature shocks are found to strongly affect the likelihood of violence as well, but the predictive power is hindered by substantial uncertainty. Our paper also sheds light on the vulnerability of areas with particular biophysical characteristics or with vulnerable populations.

Suggested Citation

  • Margherita Calderone & Jean-Francois Maystadt & Liangzhi You, 2013. "Local Warming and Violent Conflict in North and South Sudan," LICOS Discussion Papers 33513, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
  • Handle: RePEc:lic:licosd:33513
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    Cited by:

    1. Marshall Burke & Solomon M. Hsiang & Edward Miguel, 2015. "Climate and Conflict," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 577-617, August.
    2. Konstantin Ash & Nick Obradovich, 2020. "Climatic Stress, Internal Migration, and Syrian Civil War Onset," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 64(1), pages 3-31, January.
    3. Stijn van Weezel, 2016. "Communal violence in the Horn of Africa following the 1998 El Niño," Working Papers 201617, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    4. Solomon Hsiang & Marshall Burke & Edward Miguel, 2014. "Reconciling climate-conflict meta-analyses: reply to Buhaug et al," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 399-405, December.
    5. Julia Renner, 2020. "New Power Structures and Shifted Governance Agendas Disrupting Climate Change Adaptation Developments in Kenya and Uganda," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(7), pages 1-24, April.
    6. Lopes da Fonseca, Mariana & Baskaran, Thushyanthan, 2015. "Re-evaluating the economic costs of conflicts," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 246, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    7. Boxell, Levi, 2019. "Droughts, conflict, and the African slave trade," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(4), pages 774-791.
    8. Muhammad Kabir Salihu & Andrea Guariso, 2017. "Rainfall inequality, trust and civil conflict in Nigeria," Working Papers 205618510, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    9. von Grebmer, Klaus & Bernstein, Jill & Prasai, Nilam & Yin, Sandra & Yohannes, Yisehac & Towey, Olive & Sonntag, Andrea & Neubauer, Larissa & de Waal, Alex, 2015. "2015 Global hunger index: Armed conflict and the challenge of hunger," IFPRI books, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), number 978-0-89629-964-1, Winter.
    10. Kaori Tembata & Kenji Takeuchi, 2018. "The Impact Of Climate Variability On Drought Management: Evidence From Japanese River Basins," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(04), pages 1-20, November.
    11. Federica Cappelli & Caterina Conigliani & Valeria Costantini & Keti Lelo & Anil Markandya & Elena Paglialunga & Giorgia Sforna, 2020. "Do spatial interactions fuel the climate-conflict vicious cycle? The case of the African continent," Journal in Spatial Econometrics, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 1-52, December.
    12. Jean-François Maystadt & Olivier Ecker, 2014. "Extreme Weather and Civil War: Does Drought Fuel Conflict in Somalia through Livestock Price Shocks?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1157-1182.
    13. Fabien Prieur & Ingmar Schumacher, 2016. "The role of conflict for optimal climate and immigration policy," Working Papers 2016.27, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    14. Breckner, Miriam & Sunde, Uwe, 2019. "Temperature extremes, global warming, and armed conflict: new insights from high resolution data," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 1-1.
    15. Stijn van Weezel, 2016. "Short term effects of drought on communal conflict in Nigeria," Working Papers 201618, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    16. José García-Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2018. "Earthquakes and Terrorism: The Long Lasting Effect of Seismic Shocks," Working Papers 1020, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    17. Ngambouk Vitalis Pemunta & Eno-Akpa Rene Nkongho, 2014. "The Fragility of the Liberal Peace Export to South Sudan: Formal Education Access as a Basis of a Liberal Peace Project," Journal of Human Security, Librello publishing house, vol. 10(1), pages 59-75.
    18. von Grebmer, Klaus & Bernstein, Jill & Prasai, Nilam & Yin, Sandra & Yohannes, Yisehac & Towey, Olive & Sonntag, Andrea & Neubauer, Larissa & de Waal, Alex, 2015. "2015 Indice de la faim dans le monde: Conflict armés et le défi de la faim," IFPRI books, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), number 978-0-89629-966-5, Winter.
    19. Sofia Castro Vargas, 2021. "Subiendo la temperatura: el calentamiento de los océanos y su efecto en el conflicto armado en Filipinas," Documentos CEDE 019458, Universidad de los Andes - CEDE.
    20. von Grebmer, Klaus & Bernstein, Jill & Prasai, Nilam & Yin, Sandra & Yohannes, Yisehac & Towey, Olive & Sonntag, Andrea & Neubauer, Larissa & de Waal, Alex, 2015. "2015 Indice globale della fame: I conflitti armati e la sfida della fame," IFPRI books, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), number 978-0-89629-967-2, Winter.
    21. José Garcia Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2018. "Earthquakes and terrorism: the long lasting effect of seismic shocks," Economics Working Papers 1599, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    22. Vladimir Otrachshenko & Luis C. Nunes, 2019. "Fire takes no vacation: impact of fires on tourism," Nova SBE Working Paper Series wp632, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics.
    23. Margherita Calderone, 2014. "Die Wirkung von Wetterschocks auf Gewalt: eine Fallstudie aus Ostafrika," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 81(41), pages 1029-1033.
    24. Hussein, K., 2016. "IFAD RESEARCH SERIES 8 - Fostering inclusive rural transformation in fragile states and situations," IFAD Research Series 280046, International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD).

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