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Mineral Resources and Conflicts in DRC: A Case of Ecological Fallacy

  • Giacomo De Luca


    (LICOS Centre for Institutions and Economic Performances, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven)

  • Jean-Fran�ois Maystadt


    (International Food Policy Research Institute)

  • Petros G. Sekeris


    (Center for Research in the Economics of Development, University of Namur)

  • John Ulimwengu

    (International Food Policy Research Institute)

We estimate the impact of geo-located mining concessions on the number of conflict events recorded in the Democratic Republic of the Congo between 1997 and 2007. Instrumenting the variable of interest with historical concessions interacted with changes in international prices of minerals, we unveil an ecological fallacy: Whereas concessions have no effect on the number of conflicts at the territory level (lowest administrative unit), they do foster violence at the district level (higher administrative unit). We develop and validate empirically a theoretical model where the incentives of armed groups to exploit and protect mineral resources explain our empirical findings.

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Paper provided by University of Namur, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 1207.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: May 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nam:wpaper:1207
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  1. Blattman, Christopher & Miguel, Edward, 2009. "Civil War," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt90n356hs, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  2. Frederick Van der Ploeg, 2010. "Natural Resources: Curse or Blessing?," CESifo Working Paper Series 3125, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Olsson, Ola & Congdon, Heather, 2003. "Congo: The Prize of Predation," Working Papers in Economics 97, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics, revised 30 Oct 2003.
  4. Collier, Paul & Hoeffler, Anke, 2000. "Greed and grievance in civil war," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2355, The World Bank.
  5. Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone, 2009. "International Commodity Prices, Growth, and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers 2009-37, FEDEA.
  6. Mehlum, Halvor & Moene, Karl-Ove & Torvik, Ragnar, 2003. "Plunder & Protections Inc," Memorandum 10/2002, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  7. Florax, R. & Folmer, H., 1991. "Specification and Estimation of Spatial Linear Regression Models: Monte Carlo Evaluation of Pre-Test Estimator," Mansholt Working Papers 1991-4, Wageningen University, Mansholt Graduate School of Social Sciences.
  8. Mas-Colell, Andreu & Whinston, Michael D. & Green, Jerry R., 1995. "Microeconomic Theory," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195102680.
  9. Christa N. Brunnschweiler & Erwin Bulte, 2008. "Natural Resources and Violent Conflict: Resource Abundance, Dependence and the Onset of Civil Wars," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 08/78, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
  10. Oeindrila Dube & Juan F. Vargas, 2013. "Commodity Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Colombia," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(4), pages 1384-1421.
  11. Markus Bruckner & Antonio Ciccone, 2010. "International Commodities Prices, Growth and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers 1008, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
  12. Bellows, John & Miguel, Edward, 2009. "War and local collective action in Sierra Leone," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(11-12), pages 1144-1157, December.
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