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Mineral Resources and Conflicts in DRC: A Case of Ecological Fallacy

Author

Listed:
  • Giacomo De Luca

    (LICOS Centre for Institutions and Economic Performances, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven)

  • Jean-François Maystadt

    (International Food Policy Research Institute)

  • Petros G. Sekeris

    (Center for Research in the Economics of Development, University of Namur)

  • John Ulimwengu

    (International Food Policy Research Institute)

Abstract

We estimate the impact of geo-located mining concessions on the number of conflict events recorded in the Democratic Republic of the Congo between 1997 and 2007. Instrumenting the variable of interest with historical concessions interacted with changes in international prices of minerals, we unveil an ecological fallacy: Whereas concessions have no effect on the number of conflicts at the territory level (lowest administrative unit), they do foster violence at the district level (higher administrative unit). We develop and validate empirically a theoretical model where the incentives of armed groups to exploit and protect mineral resources explain our empirical findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Giacomo De Luca & Jean-François Maystadt & Petros G. Sekeris & John Ulimwengu, 2012. "Mineral Resources and Conflicts in DRC: A Case of Ecological Fallacy," Working Papers 1207, University of Namur, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:nam:wpaper:1207
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    Cited by:

    1. Corvalan, Alejandro & Pazzona, Matteo, 2019. "Persistent commodity shocks and transitory crime effects," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 110-127.
    2. Nicolas Berman & Mathieu Couttenier & Dominic Rohner & Mathias Thoenig, 2017. "This Mine Is Mine! How Minerals Fuel Conflicts in Africa," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(6), pages 1564-1610, June.
    3. Bloem, Jeffrey, 2018. "Good Intentions Gone Bad? The Dodd-Frank Act and Conflict in Africa's Great Lakes Region," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274254, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Kotsadam, Andreas & Tolonen, Anja, 2016. "African Mining, Gender, and Local Employment," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 325-339.
    5. Angelo Antoci & Paolo Russu & Elisa Ticci, 2019. "Mining and Local Economies: Dilemma between Environmental Protection and Job Opportunities," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(22), pages 1-21, November.
    6. Dagnelie, Olivier & Luca, Giacomo Davide De & Maystadt, Jean-François, 2018. "Violence, selection and infant mortality in Congo," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 153-177.
    7. Anja Tolonen, 2019. "Endogenous Gender Roles: Evidence from Africa’s Gold Mining Industry," OxCarre Working Papers 209, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    8. Mahdi FAWAZ, 2020. "Ressources naturelles et guerres civiles au Moyen-Orient," Bordeaux Economics Working Papers 2020-09, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA).
    9. Carl Henrik Knutsen & Andreas Kotsadam & Eivind Hammersmark Olsen & Tore Wig, 2017. "Mining and Local Corruption in Africa," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 61(2), pages 320-334, April.
    10. Stoop, Nik & Verpoorten, Marijke & van der Windt, Peter, 2019. "Artisanal or industrial conflict minerals? Evidence from Eastern Congo," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 660-674.
    11. Jeffrey R. Bloem, 2019. "Good Intentions Gone Bad? The Dodd-Frank Act and Conflict in Africa’s Great Lakes Region," HiCN Working Papers 300, Households in Conflict Network.
    12. Rabah Arezki & Sambit Bhattacharyya & Nemera Mamo, 2015. "Resource Discovery and Conflict in Africa: What Do the Data Show?," CSAE Working Paper Series 2015-14, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    13. Artur Zimerman, 2016. "A Piece of Land or Peace on the Land: How Much Is a Peasant's Life Worth in Brazil?," Journal of Human Security, Librello publishing house, vol. 12(1), pages 37-51.
    14. Stijn van Weezel, 2016. "Short term effects of drought on communal conflict in Nigeria," Working Papers 201618, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    15. Dominic P. Parker & Jeremy D. Foltz & David Elsea, 2016. "Unintended consequences of economic sanctions for human rights: Conflict minerals and infant mortality in the Democratic Republic of the Congo," WIDER Working Paper Series 124, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    16. Nemera Gebeyehu Mamo, 2018. "Essays on natural resources in Africa: local economic development, multi-ethnic coalitions and armed conflict," Economics PhD Theses 0518, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    17. Camille Laville, 2018. "The econometrical causal analysis of internal conflicts: The evolutions of a growing literature [L’analyse économétrique des conflits internes par l’approche causale : les évolutions d’une littérat," Working Papers hal-01940461, HAL.
    18. repec:msm:wpaper:2014/23 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Konte, Maty & Vincent, Rose Camille, 2021. "Mining and quality of public services: The role of local governance and decentralization," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    20. Stijn van Weezel, 2017. "Mostly Harmless? A Subnational Analysis of the Aid-Conflict Nexus," Working Papers 201728, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    21. Alex Dickson & Ian A MacKenzie & Petros G Sekeris, 2018. "The role of markets and preferences on resource conflicts," Working Papers 1819, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    22. de Juan, Alexander, 2012. "Mapping Political Violence – The Approaches and Conceptual Challenges of Subnational Geospatial Analyses of Intrastate Conflict," GIGA Working Papers 211, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    23. Dominic P. Parker & Jeremy D. Foltz & David Elsea, 2016. "Unintended consequences of economic sanctions for human rights: Conflict minerals and infant mortality in the Democratic Republic of the Congo," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2016-124, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    conflict; natural resources; Democratic Republic of the Congo;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
    • N57 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - Africa; Oceania

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