IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jfpoli/v34y2009i2p119-129.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Three bubbles and a panic: An explanatory review of recent food commodity price events

Author

Listed:
  • Piesse, Jenifer
  • Thirtle, Colin

Abstract

This paper is a summary of the behaviour of food commodity prices in 2007-2008 and a review of the causes of the price increases, extracted from a report to the Chief Scientific Advisor to Her Majesty's Government [Thirtle, C., Piesse, J., 2008. An Explanatory Review of the World Food Commodity Price Events of 2007-2008. A Report to the Chief Scientific Advisor. Department for Innovation, Universities and Skills, London]. The historical background shows that the price spike was much less severe than in the 1970s. The conventional wisdom that prices of the main food commodities were falling prior to 2006 is questioned. Most ceased falling and were quite stable from the 1980s. The paper separates the causes of the spike from the underlying changes driving the long run trends. The literature on the causes of the spike is critically reviewed and summarised. There is a reasonably broad consensus on most of the causes, but much less on the impact of the depreciation of the US Dollar. There are also concluding speculations on the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Piesse, Jenifer & Thirtle, Colin, 2009. "Three bubbles and a panic: An explanatory review of recent food commodity price events," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 119-129, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfpoli:v:34:y:2009:i:2:p:119-129
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306-9192(09)00011-6
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gordon C. Rausser & James A. Chalfant & H. Alan Love & Kostas G. Stamoulis, 1986. "Macroeconomic Linkages, Taxes, and Subsidies in the U.S. Agricultural Sector," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 68(2), pages 399-412.
    2. Abbott, Philip C. & Hurt, Christopher & Tyner, Wallace E., 2008. "What's Driving Food Prices?," Issue Reports 37951, Farm Foundation.
    3. Christopher L. Gilbert, 2008. "Commodity Speculation and Commodity Investment," Department of Economics Working Papers 0820, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    4. Pardey, Philip G. & Beintema, Nienke M. & Dehmer, Steven & Wood, Stanley, 2006. "Agricultural research: a growing global divide?," Food policy reports 17, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. John Baffes, 1997. "Explaining stationary variables with non-stationary regressors," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 69-75.
    6. Mitchell, Donald, 2008. "A note on rising food prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4682, The World Bank.
    7. Colin Thirtle & Lin Lin Lin & Jim Holding & Lindie Jenkins & Jenifer Piesse, 2004. "Explaining the Decline in UK Agricultural Productivity Growth," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(2), pages 343-366, July.
    8. William R. Cline, 2007. "Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 4037, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nora Lustig, 2009. "Coping with Rising Food Prices: Policy Dilemmas in the Developing World," Working Papers 0907, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    2. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2014. "Dynamic spillovers among major energy and cereal commodity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 225-243.
    3. Headey, Derek, 2011. "Rethinking the global food crisis: The role of trade shocks," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 136-146, April.
    4. -, 2009. "The outlook for agriculture and rural development in the Americas: a perspective on Latin America and the Caribbean, 2009," Coediciones, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 1379 edited by Iica.
    5. Reboredo, Juan C., 2012. "Do food and oil prices co-move?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 456-467.
    6. Derek Headey & Sangeetha Malaiyandi & Shenggen Fan, 2010. "Navigating the perfect storm: reflections on the food, energy, and financial crises," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(s1), pages 217-228, November.
    7. Estrades, Carmen & Terra, María Inés, 2012. "Commodity prices, trade, and poverty in Uruguay," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 58-66.
    8. Nazlioglu, Saban & Erdem, Cumhur & Soytas, Ugur, 2013. "Volatility spillover between oil and agricultural commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 658-665.
    9. Cullen S. Hendrix, 2011. "Markets vs. Malthus: Food Security and the Global Economy," Policy Briefs PB11-12, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    10. Eissa, Mohamad Abdelaziz & Al Refai, Hisham, 2019. "Modelling the symmetric and asymmetric relationships between oil prices and those of corn, barley, and rapeseed oil," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    11. Baffes, John & Dennis, Allen, 2013. "Long-term drivers of food prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6455, The World Bank.
    12. Etienne, Xiaoli, 2015. "Financialization of Agricultural Commodity Markets: Do Financial Data Help to Forecast Agricultural Prices," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211626, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    13. José Cuesta & Suzanne Duryea & Fidel Jaramillo & Marcos Robles, 2010. "Distributive impacts of the food price crisis in the Andean region," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(7), pages 846-865.
    14. John Baffes & Tassos Haniotis, 2016. "What Explains Agricultural Price Movements?," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(3), pages 706-721, September.
    15. Niek Koning & Arthur Mol, 2009. "Wanted: institutions for balancing global food and energy markets," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 1(3), pages 291-303, September.
    16. Nazlioglu, Saban, 2011. "World oil and agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from nonlinear causality," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2935-2943, May.
    17. Servaas Storm, 2009. "Forum 2009," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 40(6), pages 1011-1038, November.
    18. Baek, Jungho & Koo, Won W., 2014. "On the upsurge of U.S. food prices revisited," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 272-276.
    19. Fowowe, Babajide, 2016. "Do oil prices drive agricultural commodity prices? Evidence from South Africa," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 149-157.
    20. Scarlat, Nicolae & Dallemand, Jean-Franc¸ois & Banja, Manjola, 2013. "Possible impact of 2020 bioenergy targets on European Union land use. A scenario-based assessment from national renewable energy action plans proposals," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 595-606.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jfpoli:v:34:y:2009:i:2:p:119-129. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Haili He). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/foodpol .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.