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Market Expectations About Climate Change

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  • Wolfram Schlenker
  • Charles A Taylor

Abstract

An emerging literature examines how agents update their beliefs about climate change. Most studies have relied on indirect belief measures or opinion polls. We analyze a direct measure: prices of financial products whose payouts are tied to future weather outcomes. We compare these market expectations to climate model output for the years 2002 to 2018 as well as observed weather station data across eight cities in the US. All datasets show statistically significant and comparable warming trends. Nonparametric estimates suggest that trends in weather markets follow climate model predictions and are not based on shorter-term variation in observed weather station data. When money is at stake, agents are accurately anticipating warming trends in line with the scientific consensus of climate models.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfram Schlenker & Charles A Taylor, 2019. "Market Expectations About Climate Change," NBER Working Papers 25554, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25554
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    Cited by:

    1. Ruchi Avtar & Kristian S. Blickle & Rajashri Chakrabarti & Janavi Janakiraman & Maxim L. Pinkovskiy, 2023. "Understanding the Linkages between Climate Change and Inequality in the United States," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 29(1), pages 1-39, June.
    2. Agustín Indaco & Francesc Ortega & Süleyman Taṣpınar, 2021. "Hurricanes, flood risk and the economic adaptation of businesses," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(4), pages 557-591.
    3. Nora Pankratz & Christoph M. Schiller, 2022. "Climate Change and Adaptation in Global Supply-Chain Networks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-056, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Viet Do & Thu Ha Nguyen & Cameron Truong & Tram Vu, 2021. "Is drought risk priced in private debt contracts?," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 724-737, June.
    5. Kakuho Furukawa & Hibiki Ichiue & Noriyuki Shiraki, 2020. "How Does Climate Change Interact with the Financial System? A Survey," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 20-E-8, Bank of Japan.
    6. Nora M C Pankratz & Christoph M Schiller, 2024. "Climate Change and Adaptation in Global Supply-Chain Networks," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 37(6), pages 1729-1777.
    7. Marco Letta & Pierluigi Montalbano & Guillaume Pierre, 2022. "Weather shocks, traders' expectations, and food prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(3), pages 1100-1119, May.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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