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Rainfall Forecasts, Weather and Wages over the Agricultural Production Cycle

  • Mark Rosenzweig

    ()

    (Economic Growth Center, Yale University)

  • Christopher Udry

    ()

    (Economic Growth Center, Yale University)

Registered author(s):

    We look at the effects of rainfall forecasts and realized rainfall on equilibrium agricultural wages over the course of the agricultural production cycle. We show theoretically that a forecast of good weather can lower wages in the planting stage, by lowering ex ante out-migration, and can exacerbate the negative impact of adverse weather on harvest-stage wages. Using Indian household panel data describing early-season migration and district-level planting- and harveststage wages over the period 2005-2010, we find results consistent with the model, indicating that rainfall forecasts improve labor allocations on average but exacerbate wage volatility because they are imperfect.

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    File URL: http://www.econ.yale.edu/growth_pdf/cdp1036.pdf
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    Paper provided by Economic Growth Center, Yale University in its series Working Papers with number 1036.

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    Length: 14 pages
    Date of creation: Jan 2014
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:egc:wpaper:1036
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