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The trade-off between demand growth and renewables: A multiperiod electricity planning model under CO2 emission constraints

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  • Rego, Erik Eduardo
  • Costa, Oswaldo L.V.
  • Ribeiro, Celma de Oliveira
  • Lima Filho, Roberto Ivo da R.
  • Takada, Hellinton
  • Stern, Julio

Abstract

Under the Paris Agreement, each participant country established its Nationally Determined Contribution aiming at reducing its CO2 emissions. This makes the trade-off between the electricity capacity expansion planning to meet the increase of demand and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions a challenge, specially for developing countries, which require a higher rate of economic growth. To consider this trade-off, and identify the feasibility of the targets of the electricity expansion planning, a multiperiod optimization model is proposed considering the seasonality of supply and demand and the peak period demand. The goal is to minimize the total cost, satisfying demand constraints, the maximum CO2 emission constraints and the power expansion supply restrictions for each source. An analysis of the Brazilian electricity matrix for the years 2020–2033 is performed considering two scenarios for the growth of the demand and two scenarios for the CO2 target emissions The numerical simulations indicate that the present Brazilian electricity expansion planning seems adequate to meet the Nationally Determined Contribution only under a mild economic growth rate scenario. A higher economic growth rate would require a stronger economic policy related to the power expansions of the renewable sources.

Suggested Citation

  • Rego, Erik Eduardo & Costa, Oswaldo L.V. & Ribeiro, Celma de Oliveira & Lima Filho, Roberto Ivo da R. & Takada, Hellinton & Stern, Julio, 2020. "The trade-off between demand growth and renewables: A multiperiod electricity planning model under CO2 emission constraints," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:213:y:2020:i:c:s0360544220319393
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2020.118832
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