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A stochastic MILP energy planning model incorporating power market dynamics

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  • Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E.
  • Nazos, Konstantinos

Abstract

This paper presents an optimization-based methodological approach to address the problem of the optimal planning of a power system at an annual level in competitive and uncertain power markets. More specifically, a stochastic mixed integer linear programming model (MILP) has been developed, combining advanced optimization techniques with Monte Carlo method in order to deal with uncertainty issues. The main focus of the proposed framework is the dynamic formulation of the strategy followed by all market participants in volatile market conditions, as well as detailed economic assessment of the power system’s operation. The applicability of the proposed approach has been tested on a real case study of the interconnected Greek power system, quantifying in detail all the relevant technical and economic aspects of the system’s operation. The proposed work identifies in the form of probability distributions the optimal power generation mix, electricity trade at a regional level, carbon footprint, as well as detailed total supply cost composition, according to the assumed market structure. The paper demonstrates that the proposed optimization approach is able to provide important insights into the appropriate energy strategies designed by market participants, as well as on the strategic long-term decisions to be made by investors and/or policy makers at a national and/or regional level, underscoring potential risks and providing appropriate price signals on critical energy projects under real market operating conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E. & Nazos, Konstantinos, 2017. "A stochastic MILP energy planning model incorporating power market dynamics," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 1364-1383.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:205:y:2017:i:c:p:1364-1383
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.08.040
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    Cited by:

    1. Mauleón, Ignacio, 2019. "Optimizing individual renewable energies roadmaps: Criteria, methods, and end targets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    2. Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E. & Dagoumas, Athanasios S., 2018. "Incorporating unit commitment aspects to the European electricity markets algorithm: An optimization model for the joint clearing of energy and reserve markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C), pages 235-258.
    3. Rode, David C. & Fischbeck, Paul S., 2018. "Reduced-form models for power market risk analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 1640-1655.
    4. Nikolaos Koltsaklis & Athanasios Dagoumas, 2018. "Policy Implications of Power Exchanges on Operational Scheduling: Evaluating EUPHEMIA’s Market Products in Case of Greece," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(10), pages 1-26, October.
    5. Mahdavi, Sajad & Hemmati, Reza & Jirdehi, Mehdi Ahmadi, 2018. "Two-level planning for coordination of energy storage systems and wind-solar-diesel units in active distribution networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 954-965.

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