IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/rensus/v168y2022ics1364032122007535.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Scenario analysis of electricity pathways in Kenya using Low Emissions Analysis Platform and the Next Energy Modeling system for optimization

Author

Listed:
  • Wambui, Valentine
  • Njoka, Francis
  • Muguthu, Joseph
  • Ndwali, Patrick

Abstract

Many nations have encouraged the need to fully exploit renewable energy resources and energy-efficient technologies to address the issue of high electricity demand and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The development of energy pathways and sustainable energy policies of diverse countries for long-term planning has always been a challenging task. This paper investigates the impact of alternative electricity development pathways on system costs and greenhouse gas emissions in Kenya. The Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) with Next Energy Modeling system for Optimization (NEMO) is used to evaluate the optimized least-cost power system and energy storage. Three scenarios are analyzed: high penetration of renewable energy resources with an energy storage system, internalizing of environmental externalities, and energy productivity. Results from the study indicate that with Kenya's Least Cost Power Development Plan 2017–2037 as the reference, the overall cost savings are up to 26.1 billion US dollars which is equivalent to 55% while the carbon emission saved with high penetration of renewable energy with storage is up to 6.3 Mt. On the other hand, energy productivity shows a downward trend with the existing policies and exhibits an upward trend when two policy instruments are considered. Consequently, those alternative energy planning pathways have the potential to significantly reduce overall system costs and GHG emissions.

Suggested Citation

  • Wambui, Valentine & Njoka, Francis & Muguthu, Joseph & Ndwali, Patrick, 2022. "Scenario analysis of electricity pathways in Kenya using Low Emissions Analysis Platform and the Next Energy Modeling system for optimization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:168:y:2022:i:c:s1364032122007535
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2022.112871
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032122007535
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.rser.2022.112871?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vicente Sebastian Espinoza & Veronica Guayanlema & Javier Mart nez-G mez, 2018. "Energy Efficiency Plan Benefits in Ecuador: Long-range Energy Alternative Planning Model," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(4), pages 52-54.
    2. Yang, Dewei & Liu, Dandan & Huang, Anmin & Lin, Jianyi & Xu, Lingxing, 2021. "Critical transformation pathways and socio-environmental benefits of energy substitution using a LEAP scenario modeling," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    3. Mirjat, Nayyar Hussain & Uqaili, Muhammad Aslam & Harijan, Khanji & Walasai, Gordhan Das & Mondal, Md Alam Hossain & Sahin, Hasret, 2018. "Long-term electricity demand forecast and supply side scenarios for Pakistan (2015–2050): A LEAP model application for policy analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PB), pages 512-526.
    4. Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E. & Nazos, Konstantinos, 2017. "A stochastic MILP energy planning model incorporating power market dynamics," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 1364-1383.
    5. Felipe Leite Coelho da Silva & Kleyton da Costa & Paulo Canas Rodrigues & Rodrigo Salas & Javier Linkolk López-Gonzales, 2022. "Statistical and Artificial Neural Networks Models for Electricity Consumption Forecasting in the Brazilian Industrial Sector," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-12, January.
    6. Emodi, Nnaemeka Vincent & Emodi, Chinenye Comfort & Murthy, Girish Panchakshara & Emodi, Adaeze Saratu Augusta, 2017. "Energy policy for low carbon development in Nigeria: A LEAP model application," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P1), pages 247-261.
    7. Atalla, Tarek & Bean, Patrick, 2017. "Determinants of energy productivity in 39 countries: An empirical investigation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 217-229.
    8. Prina, Matteo Giacomo & Lionetti, Matteo & Manzolini, Giampaolo & Sparber, Wolfram & Moser, David, 2019. "Transition pathways optimization methodology through EnergyPLAN software for long-term energy planning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 356-368.
    9. Hu, Guangxiao & Ma, Xiaoming & Ji, Junping, 2019. "Scenarios and policies for sustainable urban energy development based on LEAP model – A case study of a postindustrial city: Shenzhen China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 876-886.
    10. Kale, Rajesh V. & Pohekar, Sanjay D., 2014. "Electricity demand and supply scenarios for Maharashtra (India) for 2030: An application of long range energy alternatives planning," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-13.
    11. Ugwoke, B. & Sulemanu, S. & Corgnati, S.P. & Leone, P. & Pearce, J.M., 2021. "Demonstration of the integrated rural energy planning framework for sustainable energy development in low-income countries: Case studies of rural communities in Nigeria," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    12. George Halkos & Nickolaos Tzeremes & Panayiotis Tzeremes, 2015. "A nonparametric approach for evaluating long-term energy policy scenarios: an application to the Greek energy system," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 4(1), pages 1-14, December.
    13. Ndwali, Kasereka & Njiri, Jackson G. & Wanjiru, Evan M., 2020. "Multi-objective optimal sizing of grid connected photovoltaic batteryless system minimizing the total life cycle cost and the grid energy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 1256-1265.
    14. Trotter, Philipp A. & Cooper, Nathanial J. & Wilson, Peter R., 2019. "A multi-criteria, long-term energy planning optimisation model with integrated on-grid and off-grid electrification – The case of Uganda," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 243(C), pages 288-312.
    15. Dalla Longa, Francesco & van der Zwaan, Bob, 2017. "Do Kenya’s climate change mitigation ambitions necessitate large-scale renewable energy deployment and dedicated low-carbon energy policy?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1559-1568.
    16. Emodi, Nnaemeka Vincent & Chaiechi, Taha & Alam Beg, A.B.M. Rabiul, 2019. "Are emission reduction policies effective under climate change conditions? A backcasting and exploratory scenario approach using the LEAP-OSeMOSYS Model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 1183-1217.
    17. Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E. & Dagoumas, Athanasios S. & Kopanos, Georgios M. & Pistikopoulos, Efstratios N. & Georgiadis, Michael C., 2014. "A spatial multi-period long-term energy planning model: A case study of the Greek power system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 456-482.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. El-Sayed, Ahmed Hassan A. & Khalil, Adel & Yehia, Mohamed, 2023. "Modeling alternative scenarios for Egypt 2050 energy mix based on LEAP analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    2. Acosta-Pazmiño, Iván P. & Rivera-Solorio, C.I. & Gijón-Rivera, M., 2021. "Scaling-up the installation of hybrid solar collectors to reduce CO2 emissions in a Mexican industrial sector from now to 2030," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    3. Raza, Muhammad Amir & Khatri, Krishan Lal & Hussain, Arslan, 2022. "Transition from fossilized to defossilized energy system in Pakistan," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 19-29.
    4. Yang, Dewei & Liu, Dandan & Huang, Anmin & Lin, Jianyi & Xu, Lingxing, 2021. "Critical transformation pathways and socio-environmental benefits of energy substitution using a LEAP scenario modeling," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    5. Mahumane, Gilberto & Mulder, Peter, 2019. "Expanding versus greening? Long-term energy and emission transitions in Mozambique," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 145-156.
    6. Junjie Wang & Yuan Li & Yi Zhang, 2022. "Research on Carbon Emissions of Road Traffic in Chengdu City Based on a LEAP Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-15, May.
    7. Carvalho, Ricardo L. & Lindgren, Robert & García-López, Natxo & Nyambane, Anne & Nyberg, Gert & Diaz-Chavez, Rocio & Boman, Christoffer, 2019. "Household air pollution mitigation with integrated biomass/cookstove strategies in Western Kenya," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 168-186.
    8. Constantino Dário Justo & José Eduardo Tafula & Pedro Moura, 2022. "Planning Sustainable Energy Systems in the Southern African Development Community: A Review of Power Systems Planning Approaches," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-28, October.
    9. Chang, Miguel & Lund, Henrik & Thellufsen, Jakob Zinck & Østergaard, Poul Alberg, 2023. "Perspectives on purpose-driven coupling of energy system models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    10. Mina Masoomi & Mostafa Panahi & Reza Samadi, 2022. "Demand side management for electricity in Iran: cost and emission analysis using LEAP modeling framework," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 5667-5693, April.
    11. Luis Rivera-González & David Bolonio & Luis F. Mazadiego & Robert Valencia-Chapi, 2019. "Long-Term Electricity Supply and Demand Forecast (2018–2040): A LEAP Model Application towards a Sustainable Power Generation System in Ecuador," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-19, September.
    12. Halkos, George & Tzeremes, Panagiotis, 2015. "Scenario analysis on greenhouse gas emissions reduction in Southeast Balkans' energy system," MPRA Paper 65280, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Mauleón, Ignacio, 2019. "Optimizing individual renewable energies roadmaps: Criteria, methods, and end targets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    14. Cai, Liya & Luo, Ji & Wang, Minghui & Guo, Jianfeng & Duan, Jinglin & Li, Jingtao & Li, Shuo & Liu, Liting & Ren, Dangpei, 2023. "Pathways for municipalities to achieve carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality: A study based on the LEAP model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PB).
    15. Izanloo, Milad & Noorollahi, Younes & Aslani, Alireza, 2021. "Future energy planning to maximize renewable energy share for the south Caspian Sea climate," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 660-675.
    16. Hussain, Arif & Perwez, Usama & Ullah, Kafait & Kim, Chul-Hwan & Asghar, Nosheen, 2021. "Long-term scenario pathways to assess the potential of best available technologies and cost reduction of avoided carbon emissions in an existing 100% renewable regional power system: A case study of G," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    17. Costa, Alberto & Ng, Tsan Sheng & Su, Bin, 2023. "Long-term solar PV planning: An economic-driven robust optimization approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 335(C).
    18. Prasad, Ravita D. & Raturi, Atul, 2019. "Low carbon alternatives and their implications for Fiji's electricity sector," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-19.
    19. Hrnčić, Boris & Pfeifer, Antun & Jurić, Filip & Duić, Neven & Ivanović, Vladan & Vušanović, Igor, 2021. "Different investment dynamics in energy transition towards a 100% renewable energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    20. Pedro Gerber Machado & Ana Carolina Rodrigues Teixeira & Flavia Mendes de Almeida Collaço & Adam Hawkes & Dominique Mouette, 2020. "Assessment of Greenhouse Gases and Pollutant Emissions in the Road Freight Transport Sector: A Case Study for São Paulo State, Brazil," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-26, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:168:y:2022:i:c:s1364032122007535. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600126/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.