IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v72y2014icp1-13.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Electricity demand and supply scenarios for Maharashtra (India) for 2030: An application of long range energy alternatives planning

Author

Listed:
  • Kale, Rajesh V.
  • Pohekar, Sanjay D.

Abstract

Forecasting of electricity demand has assumed a lot of importance to provide sustainable solutions to the electricity problems. LEAP has been used to forecast electricity demand for the target year 2030, for the state of Maharashtra (India). Holt’s exponential smoothing method has been used to arrive at suitable growth rates. Probable projections have been generated using uniform gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate and different values of elasticity of demands. Three scenarios have been generated which include Business as Usual (BAU), Energy Conservation (EC) and Renewable Energy (REN). Subsequent analysis on the basis of energy, environmental influence and cost has been done. In the target year 2030, the projected electricity demand for BAU and REN has increased by 107.3 per cent over the base year 2012 and EC electricity demand has grown by 54.3 per cent. The estimated values of green house gas (GHG) for BAU and EC, in the year 2030, are 245.2 per cent and 152.4 per cent more than the base year and for REN it is 46.2 per cent less. Sensitivity analysis has been performed to study the effect on the total cost of scenarios. Policy implications in view of the results obtained are also discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Kale, Rajesh V. & Pohekar, Sanjay D., 2014. "Electricity demand and supply scenarios for Maharashtra (India) for 2030: An application of long range energy alternatives planning," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-13.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:72:y:2014:i:c:p:1-13
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2014.05.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421514002882
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.05.007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shrimali, Gireesh & Nelson, David & Goel, Shobhit & Konda, Charith & Kumar, Raj, 2013. "Renewable deployment in India: Financing costs and implications for policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 28-43.
    2. Bautista, Santiago, 2012. "A sustainable scenario for Venezuelan power generation sector in 2050 and its costs," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 331-340.
    3. Shin, Ho-Chul & Park, Jin-Won & Kim, Ho-Seok & Shin, Eui-Soon, 2005. "Environmental and economic assessment of landfill gas electricity generation in Korea using LEAP model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1261-1270, July.
    4. Dagher, Leila & Ruble, Isabella, 2011. "Modeling Lebanon’s electricity sector: Alternative scenarios and their implications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 4315-4326.
    5. Cai, Wenjia & Wang, Can & Wang, Ke & Zhang, Ying & Chen, Jining, 2007. "Scenario analysis on CO2 emissions reduction potential in China's electricity sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 6445-6456, December.
    6. Park, Nyun-Bae & Yun, Sun-Jin & Jeon, Eui-Chan, 2013. "An analysis of long-term scenarios for the transition to renewable energy in the Korean electricity sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 288-296.
    7. Kale, Rajesh V. & Pohekar, Sanjay D., 2012. "Electricity demand supply analysis: Current status and future prospects for Maharashtra, India," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 3960-3966.
    8. Wang, Yanjia & Gu, Alun & Zhang, Aling, 2011. "Recent development of energy supply and demand in China, and energy sector prospects through 2030," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 6745-6759.
    9. Takase, Kae & Suzuki, Tatsujiro, 2011. "The Japanese energy sector: Current situation, and future paths," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 6731-6744.
    10. Kim, Hoseok & Shin, Eui-soon & Chung, Woo-jin, 2011. "Energy demand and supply, energy policies, and energy security in the Republic of Korea," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 6882-6897.
    11. Amirnekooei, K. & Ardehali, M.M. & Sadri, A., 2012. "Integrated resource planning for Iran: Development of reference energy system, forecast, and long-term energy-environment plan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 374-385.
    12. McPherson, Madeleine & Karney, Bryan, 2014. "Long-term scenario alternatives and their implications: LEAP model application of Panama׳s electricity sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 146-157.
    13. Wang, Ke & Wang, Can & Lu, Xuedu & Chen, Jining, 2007. "Scenario analysis on CO2 emissions reduction potential in China's iron and steel industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 2320-2335, April.
    14. Adom, Philip Kofi & Bekoe, William, 2012. "Conditional dynamic forecast of electrical energy consumption requirements in Ghana by 2020: A comparison of ARDL and PAM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 367-380.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Luis Rivera-González & David Bolonio & Luis F. Mazadiego & Robert Valencia-Chapi, 2019. "Long-Term Electricity Supply and Demand Forecast (2018–2040): A LEAP Model Application towards a Sustainable Power Generation System in Ecuador," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-19, September.
    2. Mahumane, Gilberto & Mulder, Peter, 2016. "Introducing MOZLEAP: An integrated long-run scenario model of the emerging energy sector of Mozambique," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 275-289.
    3. Aized, Tauseef & Shahid, Muhammad & Bhatti, Amanat Ali & Saleem, Muhammad & Anandarajah, Gabrial, 2018. "Energy security and renewable energy policy analysis of Pakistan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 155-169.
    4. Perwez, Usama & Sohail, Ahmed & Hassan, Syed Fahad & Zia, Usman, 2015. "The long-term forecast of Pakistan's electricity supply and demand: An application of long range energy alternatives planning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P2), pages 2423-2435.
    5. Kumar, Subhash, 2016. "Assessment of renewables for energy security and carbon mitigation in Southeast Asia: The case of Indonesia and Thailand," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 63-70.
    6. Kumar, Subhash & Madlener, Reinhard, 2016. "CO2 emission reduction potential assessment using renewable energy in India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 273-282.
    7. Kachoee, Mohammad Sadegh & Salimi, Mohsen & Amidpour, Majid, 2018. "The long-term scenario and greenhouse gas effects cost-benefit analysis of Iran's electricity sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 585-596.
    8. Zhou, Yuanchun & Ma, Mengdie & Gao, Peiqi & Xu, Qiming & Bi, Jun & Naren, Tuya, 2019. "Managing water resources from the energy - water nexus perspective under a changing climate: A case study of Jiangsu province, China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 380-390.
    9. Halkos, George & Tzeremes, Panagiotis, 2015. "Scenario analysis on greenhouse gas emissions reduction in Southeast Balkans' energy system," MPRA Paper 65280, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Habeebur Rahman & Iniyan Selvarasan & Jahitha Begum A, 2018. "Short-Term Forecasting of Total Energy Consumption for India-A Black Box Based Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-21, December.
    11. Lari Shanlang Tiewsoh & Jakub Jirásek & Martin Sivek, 2019. "Electricity Generation in India: Present State, Future Outlook and Policy Implications," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-14, April.
    12. Hussain, Arif & Perwez, Usama & Ullah, Kafait & Kim, Chul-Hwan & Asghar, Nosheen, 2021. "Long-term scenario pathways to assess the potential of best available technologies and cost reduction of avoided carbon emissions in an existing 100% renewable regional power system: A case study of G," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    13. Mahumane, Gilberto & Mulder, Peter, 2019. "Expanding versus greening? Long-term energy and emission transitions in Mozambique," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 145-156.
    14. Castro Verdezoto, Pedro L. & Vidoza, Jorge A. & Gallo, Waldyr L.R., 2019. "Analysis and projection of energy consumption in Ecuador: Energy efficiency policies in the transportation sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    15. Wambui, Valentine & Njoka, Francis & Muguthu, Joseph & Ndwali, Patrick, 2022. "Scenario analysis of electricity pathways in Kenya using Low Emissions Analysis Platform and the Next Energy Modeling system for optimization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    16. Prasad, Ravita D. & Raturi, Atul, 2019. "Low carbon alternatives and their implications for Fiji's electricity sector," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-19.
    17. Barman, Mayur & Dev Choudhury, N.B. & Sutradhar, Suman, 2018. "A regional hybrid GOA-SVM model based on similar day approach for short-term load forecasting in Assam, India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 710-720.
    18. Qunli Wu & Chenyang Peng, 2016. "Scenario Analysis of Carbon Emissions of China’s Electric Power Industry Up to 2030," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-18, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Perwez, Usama & Sohail, Ahmed & Hassan, Syed Fahad & Zia, Usman, 2015. "The long-term forecast of Pakistan's electricity supply and demand: An application of long range energy alternatives planning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P2), pages 2423-2435.
    2. Prasad, Ravita D. & Bansal, R.C. & Raturi, Atul, 2014. "Multi-faceted energy planning: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 686-699.
    3. Vicente Sebastian Espinoza & Veronica Guayanlema & Javier Mart nez-G mez, 2018. "Energy Efficiency Plan Benefits in Ecuador: Long-range Energy Alternative Planning Model," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(4), pages 52-54.
    4. Halkos, George & Tzeremes, Panagiotis, 2015. "Assessing greenhouse gas emissions in Estonia's energy system," MPRA Paper 66105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Halkos, George & Tzeremes, Panagiotis, 2015. "Scenario analysis on greenhouse gas emissions reduction in Southeast Balkans' energy system," MPRA Paper 65280, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Mahumane, Gilberto & Mulder, Peter, 2016. "Introducing MOZLEAP: An integrated long-run scenario model of the emerging energy sector of Mozambique," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 275-289.
    7. Ahanchian, Mohammad & Biona, Jose Bienvenido Manuel, 2014. "Energy demand, emissions forecasts and mitigation strategies modeled over a medium-range horizon: The case of the land transportation sector in Metro Manila," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 615-629.
    8. Kumar, Subhash, 2016. "Assessment of renewables for energy security and carbon mitigation in Southeast Asia: The case of Indonesia and Thailand," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 63-70.
    9. Kachoee, Mohammad Sadegh & Salimi, Mohsen & Amidpour, Majid, 2018. "The long-term scenario and greenhouse gas effects cost-benefit analysis of Iran's electricity sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 585-596.
    10. Qunli Wu & Chenyang Peng, 2016. "Scenario Analysis of Carbon Emissions of China’s Electric Power Industry Up to 2030," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-18, November.
    11. Awopone, Albert K. & Zobaa, Ahmed F. & Banuenumah, Walter, 2017. "Techno-economic and environmental analysis of power generation expansion plan of Ghana," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 13-22.
    12. Liu, Lei & Wang, Ke & Wang, Shanshan & Zhang, Ruiqin & Tang, Xiaoyan, 2018. "Assessing energy consumption, CO2 and pollutant emissions and health benefits from China's transport sector through 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 382-396.
    13. Park, Nyun-Bae & Yun, Sun-Jin & Jeon, Eui-Chan, 2013. "An analysis of long-term scenarios for the transition to renewable energy in the Korean electricity sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 288-296.
    14. Karunanithi, K. & Saravanan, S. & Prabakar, B.R. & Kannan, S. & Thangaraj, C., 2017. "Integration of Demand and Supply Side Management strategies in Generation Expansion Planning," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 966-982.
    15. Mahumane, Gilberto & Mulder, Peter, 2019. "Expanding versus greening? Long-term energy and emission transitions in Mozambique," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 145-156.
    16. Luis Rivera-González & David Bolonio & Luis F. Mazadiego & Robert Valencia-Chapi, 2019. "Long-Term Electricity Supply and Demand Forecast (2018–2040): A LEAP Model Application towards a Sustainable Power Generation System in Ecuador," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-19, September.
    17. Subramanyam, Veena & Kumar, Amit & Talaei, Alireza & Mondal, Md. Alam Hossain, 2017. "Energy efficiency improvement opportunities and associated greenhouse gas abatement costs for the residential sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 795-807.
    18. Lee, Seungmoon & Park, Jin-Won & Song, Ho-Jun & Maken, Sanjeev & Filburn, Tom, 2008. "Implication of CO2 capture technologies options in electricity generation in Korea," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 326-334, January.
    19. Sana Bashir & Iftikhar Ahmad & Sajid Rashid Ahmad, 2018. "Low-Emission Modeling for Energy Demand in the Household Sector: A Study of Pakistan as a Developing Economy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-17, October.
    20. Gómez, Antonio & Dopazo, César & Fueyo, Norberto, 2016. "The “cost of not doing” energy planning: The Spanish energy bubble," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 434-446.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:72:y:2014:i:c:p:1-13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.