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Introducing MOZLEAP: an integrated long-run scenario model of the emerging energy sector of Mozambique

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  • Mahumane, Gilberto
  • Mulder, Peter

Abstract

Since recently Mozambique is actively developing its large reserves of coal, natural gas and hydropower. Against this background, we present in this paper the first integrated long-run scenario model of the Mozambican energy sector. Our model makes use of the LEAP framework and is calibrated on the basis of recently developed local energy statistics, demographic and urbanization trends as well as cross-country based GDP elasticities for biomass consumption, sector structure and vehicle ownership. We develop four scenarios to evaluate the impact of the anticipated surge in natural resources exploration on aggregate trends in energy supply and demand, the energy infrastructure and economic growth in Mozambique. Our analysis shows that until 2030, primary energy production is likely to increase at least six-fold, and probably much more. This is roughly 10 times the expected increase in energy demand; most of the increase in energy production is destined for export. As a result, Mozambique is rapidly developing into an important player at international energy markets. Therefore, a major challenge for energy policy in Mozambique is to strike a balance in meeting domestic and international demand for energy, such that energy production benefits the entire Mozambican population.

Suggested Citation

  • Mahumane, Gilberto & Mulder, Peter, 2015. "Introducing MOZLEAP: an integrated long-run scenario model of the emerging energy sector of Mozambique," MPRA Paper 65967, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:65967
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Spalding-Fecher, Randall. & Senatla, Mamahloko & Yamba, Francis & Lukwesa, Biness & Himunzowa, Grayson & Heaps, Charles & Chapman, Arthur & Mahumane, Gilberto & Tembo, Bernard & Nyambe, Imasiku, 2017. "Electricity supply and demand scenarios for the Southern African power pool," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 403-414.
    2. repec:eee:enepol:v:128:y:2019:i:c:p:329-346 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Mahumane, Gilberto & Mulder, Peter, 2015. "Mozambique Energy Outlook, 2015-2030. Data, scenarios and policy implications," MPRA Paper 65968, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Perrotton, F. & Massol, O., 2018. "Rate-of-return regulation to unlock natural gas pipeline deployment: insights from a Mozambican project," Working Papers 18/05, Department of Economics, City University London.
    5. Spalding-Fecher, Randall & Joyce, Brian & Winkler, Harald, 2017. "Climate change and hydropower in the Southern African Power Pool and Zambezi River Basin: System-wide impacts and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 84-97.
    6. Emodi, Nnaemeka Vincent & Emodi, Chinenye Comfort & Murthy, Girish Panchakshara & Emodi, Adaeze Saratu Augusta, 2017. "Energy policy for low carbon development in Nigeria: A LEAP model application," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P1), pages 247-261.
    7. repec:eee:enepol:v:126:y:2019:i:c:p:145-156 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mozambique; Energy Sector; Energy Modeling; LEAP; Scenarios;

    JEL classification:

    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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