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The long-term forecast of Taiwan’s energy supply and demand: LEAP model application

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  • Huang, Yophy
  • Bor, Yunchang Jeffrey
  • Peng, Chieh-Yu

Abstract

The long-term forecasting of energy supply and demand is an extremely important topic of fundamental research in Taiwan due to Taiwan’s lack of natural resources, dependence on energy imports, and the nation’s pursuit of sustainable development. In this article, we provide an overview of energy supply and demand in Taiwan, and a summary of the historical evolution and current status of its energy policies, as background to a description of the preparation and application of a Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model of Taiwan’s energy sector. The Taiwan LEAP model is used to compare future energy demand and supply patterns, as well as greenhouse gas emissions, for several alternative scenarios of energy policy and energy sector evolution. Results of scenarios featuring “business-as-usual” policies, aggressive energy-efficiency improvement policies, and on-schedule retirement of Taiwan’s three existing nuclear plants are provided and compared, along with sensitivity cases exploring the impacts of lower economic growth assumptions. A concluding section provides an interpretation of the implications of model results for future energy and climate policies in Taiwan.

Suggested Citation

  • Huang, Yophy & Bor, Yunchang Jeffrey & Peng, Chieh-Yu, 2011. "The long-term forecast of Taiwan’s energy supply and demand: LEAP model application," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 6790-6803.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:11:p:6790-6803
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2010.10.023
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    Cited by:

    1. Prasad, Ravita D. & Bansal, R.C. & Raturi, Atul, 2014. "Multi-faceted energy planning: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 686-699.
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    3. Shakouri G., H. & Aliakbarisani, S., 2016. "At what valuation of sustainability can we abandon fossil fuels? A comprehensive multistage decision support model for electricity planning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 60-77.
    4. Wu, Qunli & Peng, Chenyang, 2017. "A hybrid BAG-SA optimal approach to estimate energy demand of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 985-995.
    5. Jiang Zhu & Zhenyu Zhao, 2017. "Chinese Electric Power Development Coordination Analysis on Resource, Production and Consumption: A Provincial Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(2), pages 1-19, February.
    6. Fukushige, Mototsugu & Yamawaki, Hiroshige, 2015. "The relationship between an electricity supply ceiling and economic growth: An application of disequilibrium modeling to Taiwan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 14-23.
    7. Ates, Seyithan A., 2015. "Energy efficiency and CO2 mitigation potential of the Turkish iron and steel industry using the LEAP (long-range energy alternatives planning) system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(P1), pages 417-428.
    8. Matsumoto, Ken׳ichi & Andriosopoulos, Kostas, 2016. "Energy security in East Asia under climate mitigation scenarios in the 21st century," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 59(PA), pages 60-71.
    9. Haijun Zhao & Weichun Ma & Hongjia Dong & Ping Jiang, 2017. "Analysis of Co-Effects on Air Pollutants and CO 2 Emissions Generated by End-of-Pipe Measures of Pollution Control in China’s Coal-Fired Power Plants," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(4), pages 1-19, March.
    10. Wei, Sun & Yanfeng, Xu, 2017. "Research on China's energy supply and demand using an improved Grey-Markov chain model based on wavelet transform," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 969-984.
    11. Ahanchian, Mohammad & Biona, Jose Bienvenido Manuel, 2014. "Energy demand, emissions forecasts and mitigation strategies modeled over a medium-range horizon: The case of the land transportation sector in Metro Manila," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 615-629.
    12. Zhang, Shaohui & Worrell, Ernst & Crijns-Graus, Wina, 2015. "Synergy of air pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions of Chinese industries: A critical assessment of energy models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P2), pages 2436-2450.
    13. Salehin, Sayedus & Ferdaous, M. Tanvirul & Chowdhury, Ridhwan M. & Shithi, Sumaia Shahid & Rofi, M.S.R. Bhuiyan & Mohammed, Mahir Asif, 2016. "Assessment of renewable energy systems combining techno-economic optimization with energy scenario analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 729-741.
    14. Wei Sun & Yujun He & Hong Chang, 2015. "Forecasting Fossil Fuel Energy Consumption for Power Generation Using QHSA-Based LSSVM Model," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(2), pages 1-21, January.
    15. Mahumane, Gilberto & Mulder, Peter, 2016. "Introducing MOZLEAP: An integrated long-run scenario model of the emerging energy sector of Mozambique," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 275-289.
    16. Halkos, George & Tzeremes, Panagiotis, 2015. "Assessing greenhouse gas emissions in Estonia's energy system," MPRA Paper 66105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. McPherson, Madeleine & Karney, Bryan, 2014. "Long-term scenario alternatives and their implications: LEAP model application of Panama׳s electricity sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 146-157.
    18. Lei Tian & Zhe Ding & Yongxuan Wang & Haiyan Duan & Shuo Wang & Jie Tang & Xian’en Wang, 2016. "Analysis of the Driving Factors and Contributions to Carbon Emissions of Energy Consumption from the Perspective of the Peak Volume and Time Based on LEAP," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(6), pages 1-17, May.
    19. repec:gam:jeners:v:10:y:2017:i:11:p:1868-:d:118909 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Subramanyam, Veena & Kumar, Amit & Talaei, Alireza & Mondal, Md. Alam Hossain, 2017. "Energy efficiency improvement opportunities and associated greenhouse gas abatement costs for the residential sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 795-807.
    21. Dedinec, Aleksandra & Filiposka, Sonja & Dedinec, Aleksandar & Kocarev, Ljupco, 2016. "Deep belief network based electricity load forecasting: An analysis of Macedonian case," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P3), pages 1688-1700.
    22. Pukšec, Tomislav & Mathiesen, Brian Vad & Novosel, Tomislav & Duić, Neven, 2014. "Assessing the impact of energy saving measures on the future energy demand and related GHG (greenhouse gas) emission reduction of Croatia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 198-209.
    23. Sgouridis, Sgouris & Abdullah, Ayu & Griffiths, Steve & Saygin, Deger & Wagner, Nicholas & Gielen, Dolf & Reinisch, Hannes & McQueen, Dane, 2016. "RE-mapping the UAE’s energy transition: An economy-wide assessment of renewable energy options and their policy implications," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 1166-1180.
    24. Emodi, Nnaemeka Vincent & Emodi, Chinenye Comfort & Murthy, Girish Panchakshara & Emodi, Adaeze Saratu Augusta, 2017. "Energy policy for low carbon development in Nigeria: A LEAP model application," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P1), pages 247-261.
    25. Awopone, Albert K. & Zobaa, Ahmed F. & Banuenumah, Walter, 2017. "Techno-economic and environmental analysis of power generation expansion plan of Ghana," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 13-22.

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