IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/hal-03192508.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Rate of Return Regulation to Unlock Natural Gas Pipeline Deployment : insights from a Mozambican project

Author

Listed:
  • Florian Perrotton

    (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles, EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Olivier Massol

    (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles, IFP School, University of London [London])

Abstract

In poor developing countries, the discovery of large gas deposits often stimulates the public authorities' appetite for ambitious development strategies requiring the construction of a large national pipeline system. However, the foreign private investors financing its installation usually prefer smaller infrastructure designs that are solely intended to supply a few creditworthy industrial sites. Focusing on the situation in Mozambique, we examine whether the adoption of rate-of-return (RoR) regulation can reconcile these conflicting objectives. As a first step, we assess the magnitude of the overcapitalization generated ex ante at the planning stage by the application of RoR regulation (i.e., the Averch-Johnson effect) to the investors. Then, analyzing the ex post situation when the enlarged domestic demand materializes, we prove that the allowable rate of return can be set by the regulator to obtain ex ante the degree of overcapitalization needed ex post to serve the enlarged demand in a cost-efficient manner. We finally discuss whether RoR regulation can still protect society from monopoly prices when it is tuned to prompt an optimal degree of building ahead of proven demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Florian Perrotton & Olivier Massol, 2019. "Rate of Return Regulation to Unlock Natural Gas Pipeline Deployment : insights from a Mozambican project," Working Papers hal-03192508, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03192508
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://ifp.hal.science/hal-03192508
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ifp.hal.science/hal-03192508/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mahumane, Gilberto & Mulder, Peter, 2016. "Introducing MOZLEAP: An integrated long-run scenario model of the emerging energy sector of Mozambique," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 275-289.
    2. Francesco Caselli & Andrea Tesei, 2016. "Resource Windfalls, Political Regimes, and Political Stability," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(3), pages 573-590, July.
    3. Olivier Massol, 2011. "A Cost Function for the Natural Gas Transmission Industry: Further Considerations," The Engineering Economist, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(2), pages 95-122.
    4. Mr. Giovanni Melina & Yi Xiong, 2013. "Natural Gas, Public Investment and Debt Sustainability in Mozambique," IMF Working Papers 2013/261, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Resul Cesur & Erdal Tekin & Aydogan Ulker, 2017. "Air Pollution and Infant Mortality: Evidence from the Expansion of Natural Gas Infrastructure," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(600), pages 330-362, March.
    6. Pindyck, Robert S, 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1110-1148, September.
    7. David Parker & Colin Kirkpatrick, 2005. "Privatisation in Developing Countries: A Review of the Evidence and the Policy Lessons," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(4), pages 513-541.
    8. Jones, Sam & Tvedten, Inge, 2019. "What does it mean to be poor? Investigating the qualitative-quantitative divide in Mozambique," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 153-166.
    9. International Monetary Fund, 2016. "Republic of Mozambique: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2016/010, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Khennas, Smail, 2012. "Understanding the political economy and key drivers of energy access in addressing national energy access priorities and policies: African Perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(S1), pages 21-26.
    11. repec:cty:dpaper:11/03 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Perrotton, Florian & Massol, Olivier, 2018. "The technology and cost structure of a natural gas pipeline: Insights for costs and rate-of-return regulation," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 32-37.
    13. Massol, O. & Banal-Estanol, A., 2012. "Export diversification and resource-based industrialization: the case of natural gas," Working Papers 12/01, Department of Economics, City University London.
    14. Callen, Jeffrey & Mathewson, G Frank & Mohring, Herbert, 1976. "The Benefits and Costs of Rate of Return Regulation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(3), pages 290-297, June.
    15. Sovacool, Benjamin K., 2009. "Energy policy and cooperation in Southeast Asia: The history, challenges, and implications of the trans-ASEAN gas pipeline (TAGP) network," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2356-2367, June.
    16. Parikh, Jyoti & Biswas, C.R. Dutta & Singh, Chandrashekhar & Singh, Vivek, 2009. "Natural Gas requirement by fertilizer sector in India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 954-961.
    17. Resul Cesur & Erdal Tekin & Aydogan Ulker, 2017. "Air Pollution and Infant Mortality: Evidence from the Expansion of Natural Gas Infrastructure," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(600), pages 330-362, March.
    18. Demierre, Jonathan & Bazilian, Morgan & Carbajal, Jonathan & Sherpa, Shaky & Modi, Vijay, 2015. "Potential for regional use of East Africa’s natural gas," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 414-436.
    19. Jean-Jacques Laffont & Jean Tirole, 1993. "A Theory of Incentives in Procurement and Regulation," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262121743, December.
    20. Massol, Olivier & Banal-Estañol, Albert, 2014. "Export diversification through resource-based industrialization: The case of natural gas," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(3), pages 1067-1082.
    21. International Monetary Fund, 2019. "Republic of Mozambique: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2019/167, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Klein, Benjamin & Crawford, Robert G & Alchian, Armen A, 1978. "Vertical Integration, Appropriable Rents, and the Competitive Contracting Process," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 21(2), pages 297-326, October.
    23. Williamson, Oliver E, 1983. "Credible Commitments: Using Hostages to Support Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(4), pages 519-540, September.
    24. World Bank, 2010. "The Future of the Natural Gas Market in Southeast Europe," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2486, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jagu Schippers, Emma & Massol, Olivier, 2022. "Unlocking CO2 infrastructure deployment: The impact of carbon removal accounting," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    2. Waidelich, Paul & Haug, Tomas & Wieshammer, Lorenz, 2022. "German efficiency gone wrong: Unintended incentives arising from the gas TSOs’ benchmarking," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    3. Nicolle, Adrien & Massol, Olivier, 2023. "Build more and regret less: Oversizing H2 and CCS pipeline systems under uncertainty," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    4. Singh, Kewal & Singh, Anoop & Prakash, Puneet, 2022. "Estimating the cost of equity for the regulated energy and infrastructure sectors in India," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adrien Nicolle & Diego Cedreros & Olivier Massol & Emma Jagu Schippers, 2023. "Modeling CO2 Pipeline Systems : An Analytical Lens for CCS Regulation," Working Papers hal-04087681, HAL.
    2. Yannis Karagiannis, 2007. "Foundational Economic Theories for Political-Scientific Inter-Branch Studies," RSCAS Working Papers 2007/16, European University Institute.
    3. MARINI, Marco, 1996. "Property Rights and Market : Employee Privatization as a Cooperative Bargaining Process," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 1996023, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    4. Hsuan-Yu Lin & Chih-Hai Yang, 2016. "Uncertainty, specific investment, and contract duration: evidence from the MLB player market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 1009-1028, May.
    5. Kim, Jongwook & Mahoney, Joseph T., 2008. "A Strategic Theory of the Firm as a Nexus of Incomplete Contracts: A Property Rights Approach," Working Papers 08-0108, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, College of Business.
    6. Gonzalez, P., 1999. "Specific Investment, Absence of Commitment and Observability," Papers 99-03, Laval - Recherche en Energie.
    7. de Bragança, Gabriel Godofredo Fiuza & Daglish, Toby, 2017. "Investing in vertical integration: electricity retail market participation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 355-365.
    8. Syed Hasan & Odmaa Narantungalag, & Martin Berka, 2022. "The intended and unintended consequences of large electricity subsidies: evidence from Mongolia," Discussion Papers 2202, School of Economics and Finance, Massey University, New Zealand.
    9. Patrick Gonzàlez, 2004. "Investment and Screening Under Asymmetric Endogenous Information," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 35(3), pages 502-519, Autumn.
    10. Kosnik, Lea & Lange, Ian, 2011. "Contract renegotiation and rent re-distribution: Who gets raked over the coals?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 155-165, September.
    11. Stienstra, Miranda, 2020. "The determinants and performance implications of alliance partner acquisition," Other publications TiSEM 7fdee0c2-d4d2-4f5b-95e3-2, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    12. Paul H. Jensen & Robin E. Stonecash, 2004. "The Efficiency of Public Sector Outsourcing Contracts: A Literature Review," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2004n29, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    13. Teevrat Garg & Maulik Jagnani & Hemant K. Pullabhotla, 2022. "Structural transformation and environmental externalities," Papers 2212.02664, arXiv.org.
    14. Greve, Jane & Schultz-Nielsen, Marie Louise & Tekin, Erdal, 2017. "Fetal malnutrition and academic success: Evidence from Muslim immigrants in Denmark," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 20-35.
    15. Shanoyan, Aleksan & Brent Ross, R. & Gow, Hamish R. & Christopher Peterson, H., 2014. "Long-term sustainability of third-party facilitated market linkages: Evidence from the USDA marketing assistance program in the Armenian dairy industry," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 157-164.
    16. Hermano, Víctor & Martín-Cruz, Natalia, 2013. "How to Deliver Foreign Aid? The Case of Projects Governed by the Spanish International Agency," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 298-314.
    17. Jones, Benjamin A., 2018. "Forest-attacking Invasive Species and Infant Health: Evidence From the Invasive Emerald Ash Borer," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 282-293.
    18. Xu, Shang & Allen Klaiber, H., 2019. "The impact of new natural gas pipelines on emissions and fuel consumption in China," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 49-62.
    19. Pablo T. Spiller, 2009. "An Institutional Theory of Public Contracts: Regulatory Implications," Chapters, in: Claude Ménard & Michel Ghertman (ed.), Regulation, Deregulation, Reregulation, chapter 3, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    20. Jean-François Hennart, 2020. "More than intent: A bundling model of MNE–SME interactions," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 51(7), pages 1176-1194, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Natural gas; Pipeline; Regulatory economics; Developing countries; Mozambique; Buildingahead of demand; Overcapitalization;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03192508. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.