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Export diversification and resource-based industrialization: the case of natural gas

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  • Massol, O.
  • Banal-Estanol, A.

Abstract

For resource-rich economies, primary commodity specialization has often been considered to be detrimental to growth. Accordingly, export diversification policies centered on resource-based industries have long been advocated as effective ways to moderate the large variability of export revenues. This paper discusses the applicability of a mean-variance portfolio approach to design these strategies and proposes some modifications aimed at capturing the key features of resource processing industries (presence of scale economies and investment lumpiness). These modifications help make the approach more plausible for use in resource-rich countries. An application to the case of natural gas is then discussed using data obtained from Monte Carlo simulations of a calibrated empirical model. Lastly, the proposed framework is put to work to evaluate the performances of the diversification strategies implemented in a set of nine gas-rich economies. These results are then used to formulate some policy recommendations.

Suggested Citation

  • Massol, O. & Banal-Estanol, A., 2012. "Export diversification and resource-based industrialization: the case of natural gas," Working Papers 12/01, Department of Economics, City University London.
  • Handle: RePEc:cty:dpaper:12/01
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    Cited by:

    1. Massol, Olivier & Rifaat, Omer, 2018. "Phasing out the U.S. Federal Helium Reserve: Policy insights from a world helium model," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 186-211.
    2. Balavac, Merima & Pugh, Geoff, 2016. "The link between trade openness, export diversification, institutions and output volatility in transition countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 273-287.
    3. Emmanuel Hache & Olivier Massol, 2016. "Sanctions against Iran: An assessment of their global impact through the lens of international methanol prices," Working Papers hal-02475557, HAL.
    4. Joya, Omar, 2015. "Growth and volatility in resource-rich countries: Does diversification help?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 38-55.
    5. Abada, I. & Massol, O., 2011. "Security of supply and retail competition in the European gas market: Some model-based insights," Working Papers 11/04, Department of Economics, City University London.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Resource-based industrialization; Mean-variance portfolio; Export earnings volatility; Natural gas;

    JEL classification:

    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights
    • L31 - Industrial Organization - - Nonprofit Organizations and Public Enterprise - - - Nonprofit Institutions; NGOs; Social Entrepreneurship
    • I23 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Higher Education; Research Institutions

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